????黑石顧問(wèn)合伙人公司（Blackstone Advisory Partners）副主席拜倫?維恩發(fā)表了2013年預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告。拜倫每年都會(huì)對(duì)來(lái)年的經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融市場(chǎng)和政治局勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，今年已是第28個(gè)年頭。普通投資者認(rèn)為發(fā)生概率僅有三分之一的事件，拜倫會(huì)將其定義為“意外”；一旦他表示“可能”，則意味著他認(rèn)為事件的發(fā)生概率大于50%。

????早在1986年，拜倫擔(dān)任摩根斯坦利（Morgan Stanley）首席美國(guó)投資戰(zhàn)略家時(shí)就開(kāi)始每年發(fā)布這項(xiàng)報(bào)告。2009年9月，拜倫加入黑石，擔(dān)任高級(jí)顧問(wèn)，為公司及其客戶分析經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治、市場(chǎng)與社會(huì)趨勢(shì)。

????以下為拜倫的2013年十大預(yù)言：

????1. 伊朗宣布擁有足夠制造一枚核導(dǎo)彈的濃縮鈾，國(guó)際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)（International Atomic Energy Agency）也將確認(rèn)這一說(shuō)法。制裁、貨幣貶值、經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況疲軟和外交手段均無(wú)法阻止伊朗的核武進(jìn)程。國(guó)際社會(huì)必須將伊朗視為核威脅來(lái)對(duì)待，而不是無(wú)休止地談?wù)撊绾伪苊庖晾蕮碛泻四芰ΑＣ绹?guó)和以色列將政策從預(yù)防轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槎糁啤?/p>

????2. 由于利潤(rùn)空間遭到擠壓，收入增長(zhǎng)有限，導(dǎo)致2013年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500（Standard & Poor's 500）的收益下降到100美元以下，失望情緒在投資者當(dāng)中蔓延。標(biāo)普500指數(shù)跌破1,300點(diǎn)。公司對(duì)于在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)愈加激烈的情況下依然實(shí)行限制性定價(jià)權(quán)抱怨不已。

????3. 經(jīng)過(guò)2012年的增長(zhǎng)，金融類(lèi)股票的形勢(shì)急轉(zhuǎn)直下。商業(yè)銀行與投資銀行業(yè)面臨的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)以及低迷的交易量都帶來(lái)了巨大的利潤(rùn)壓力。裁員仍在繼續(xù)，補(bǔ)償金蠶食著銀行業(yè)。監(jiān)管力度加大，法律訴訟仍是銀行業(yè)面臨的巨大負(fù)擔(dān)。

????4.通過(guò)一次出人意料的逆轉(zhuǎn)，民主黨發(fā)起一項(xiàng)強(qiáng)有力的項(xiàng)目，將使美國(guó)在2020年不再依賴(lài)中東的石油進(jìn)口。西德克薩斯輕質(zhì)油的價(jià)格下跌到每桶70美元。當(dāng)局建議放松對(duì)在人口密度較低地區(qū)通過(guò)水力壓裂開(kāi)采石油與天然氣的限制，并允許在美國(guó)聯(lián)邦土地上進(jìn)行更多鉆探活動(dòng)。美國(guó)當(dāng)局認(rèn)為，2013年主要的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)將由能源生產(chǎn)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和住房業(yè)創(chuàng)造。

????5.通過(guò)一次出人意料的逆轉(zhuǎn)，共和黨付諸巨大努力成為移民政策的主導(dǎo)者。共和黨提出一項(xiàng)法案，為非法移民獲得美國(guó)國(guó)籍創(chuàng)造了條件。法案提到凡在美國(guó)居住十年的非法移民，只要沒(méi)有犯罪記錄，接受過(guò)高中教育或曾在美軍服役，并通過(guò)英語(yǔ)能力考試，則可申請(qǐng)成為美國(guó)公民。共和黨的目標(biāo)是至2016年贏得拉丁裔美國(guó)人的選票，他們認(rèn)為拉丁裔群體具有天然的保守主義傾向，民主黨正是依靠拉丁裔選票才在2012年大選中獲勝。

????6. 中國(guó)新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子似乎下定決心實(shí)行改革，以根除腐敗，使經(jīng)濟(jì)保持7%以上的增長(zhǎng)速度，并開(kāi)始制定更利民的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)與退休計(jì)劃。2013年，上海證交所（Shanghai Composite）終于起死回生，A股漲幅超過(guò)20%。之前一年，中國(guó)股市持續(xù)下跌，而其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家股市，尤其是印度市場(chǎng)，則節(jié)節(jié)攀升。

????Byron Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of Surprises for 2013. This is the 28th year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a "surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is "probable", having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

????Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone (BX) in September 2009 as a Senior Advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends.

????Byron's Ten Surprises for 2013 are as follows:

????1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.

????2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor's 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.

????3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.

????4. In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.

????5. In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.

????6. The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the "A" shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.