????且不考慮蘋果本周將推出備受期待的iPad Mini，那些關注蘋果的頂尖分析師們認為，在2013財政年度中，蘋果的凈收益有望達到630億美元，收入有望達到2,300億美元。這意味著比起2012財政年度，蘋果的凈收益增幅將高達47.3%，而收入增幅高達43.75%。所以直說吧，這家市值最高的公司今年的收入增幅為43.75%。

????相比之下，根據華爾街分析師們的共識，谷歌的凈收益增長率大概為18.7%。分析師們預計，修正過后谷歌的凈收益為168億美元，收入為536億美元。與蘋果不同，谷歌的表現很少大幅超出分析師的預測。比如在過去四個季度中，谷歌的業績分別比預測值低出9.5%，高出4.50%，高出0.80%，低出15.20%。

????另一方面，在大多數季度中，蘋果的表現都會超出預期。實際上，分析師們還有一年的時間來提高自己的預期，以適應蘋果屢屢驚人的表現。隨著時間的推移，蘋果還會不斷推出創新的產品和服務，所以目前預計的630億美元凈收益和2,300億美元收入屆時還會水漲船高。

????蘋果不僅在事實上贏得了2009至2012年的競爭，還極有可能在明年繼續贏下去。不過也許從某些方面來看，谷歌會比蘋果更適合投資呢？以下是預計將在2013年上演的谷歌和蘋果的對決形勢。

????我們不妨換個角度思考。如果有一位投資者的銀行賬戶上有1萬億美元，按照目前的市值，她可以直接收購蘋果或者谷歌。那么，只有根本不在乎錢的人才會花2,235億美元去收購谷歌，而不是花5717億美元去收購蘋果。為什么呢？因為蘋果不僅擁有1,300億美元的現金（根據上周五的報道），而且蘋果的股本回報率也遠高于谷歌。

????明年，蘋果將償還所有凈市值的14.5%，而谷歌則會償還9.4%。這意味著如果這兩家公司都停止增長，蘋果需要6年半的時間來償還所有凈市值，谷歌則需要超過11年的時間。

????鑒于蘋果在全球手機市場的霸主地位，蘋果至少還可以維持3年爆炸性放任增長，之后還能維持3-5年的中速增長。

????那些認為蘋果將會抵達某個高峰，然后像1999年那樣開始衰敗的人，并不明白這個道理。即使蘋果的股價僅僅維持現在的水平，在接下來的四年內，它的所有市值也可以轉變為現金。就算蘋果真如某些人預計的那樣垮掉了，它也能轉為私有化。這就是為什么蘋果股價今天還在繼續走高，并將持續走高的原因；也是為何在接下來三年內，投資蘋果顯然比投資谷歌更加明智的原因。

????作者安迪?扎基是Bullish Cross資產管理公司的基金經理，該公司在多個不同的投資組合中持有重量級的蘋果股票。本文僅代表作者個人觀點。

????譯者：嚴匡正

????Without taking into account the highly anticipated introduction of the iPad Mini on Tuesday, top analysts covering Apple expect the company to report roughly $63 billion in net income on $230 billion in revenues for the 2013 fiscal year. That would represent roughly 47.3% earnings growth and 43.75% revenue growth when compared to Apple's fiscal 2012. So just to get this straight, the largest market cap company is about to grow its earnings by 43.75% this year.

????Google, by contrast, is expected to grow its net income by roughly 18.7% according to a consensus of Wall Street analysts. The analysts are looking for Google to report roughly $16.8 billion in adjusted net income on $53.6 billion in revenue. Unlike Apple, Google very rarely surprises analyst expectations by any large degree. Over the past four quarters, for example, Google missed by 9.5%, beat by 4.50%, beat by 0.80% and missed by 15.20%.

????Apple, on the other hand, tends to decimate expectations in most quarters. In fact, there has yet to be a year where analysts haven't had to scramble to adjusted their estimates higher as Apple comes in and destroys expectations. So that $63 billion in net income on $230 billion in revenue estimate is likely to move up as the year progresses and as Apple introduces new innovative products and services.

????Apple has not only objectively won the debate from 2009 to 2012, it is largely expected to win next year. But somehow and based on some measure Google is supposed to be a better investment than Apple? Here is what the Google v. Apple story looks like going ahead to 2013:

????Here is another way to think about all of this. If an investor had $1 trillion in her bank account and had the ability to buy Apple or Google outright in cash at their current market capitalizations, only someone who didn't care about money would buy Google for $223.5 billion over Apple at $571.7 billion. The reason? Given that Apple not only already has $130 billion of that market cap in cash (as of this Friday's report), Apple's return on equity is much larger than Google's.

????Next year Apple will return 14.5% of its entire net market capitalization while Google will return 9.4%. That means if both companies stopped growing, it would only take Apple about six and a half years to completely pay off its entire net market capitalization while it would take Google more than 11-years to accomplish the same feat.

????Apple still has at least 3-years of explosive growth ahead of it based on where it stands in the global handset market, and another 3-5 after that of moderate growth.

????That's what all of these people who think Apple is going to hit some major peak and then collapse like its 1999 don't quite understand. If Apple merely just remained at this current price-level, it would have its entire market cap in cash over the next four years. If it collapsed as some believe that it will, the company would simply be able to take itself private. That's why Apple continues to push higher, why it will continue to push higher and why it is clearly a much better investment opportunity than Google going into the next three years.

????Andy M. Zaky is a fund manager at Bullish Cross Asset Management, which owns a significant position in Apple as a core holding across several different portfolios. The opinions expressed here are his own.