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谷歌Vs.蘋果:股民該買誰?

谷歌Vs.蘋果:股民該買誰?

Andy M. Zaky 2012-10-25
別吵了,看看數(shù)字就知道,答案很明顯。蘋果在股市上的表現(xiàn)不僅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過谷歌,而且超過所有的大型科技公司。更重要的是,蘋果在未來幾年依然有望繼續(xù)維持高速增長。

????一年年過去,蘋果已經(jīng)證明它才是真正的贏家,而谷歌的擁護(hù)者則繼續(xù)想象著谷歌“明年”更出色。明年的這個時候,蘋果的收入增長率和股市表現(xiàn)一定又會遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)甩開谷歌,而我們還會再次聽到這一套陳詞濫調(diào):“市場多么有前瞻性”,谷歌“下次”一定會勝出。

????事實上,蘋果在這場競爭中不僅完勝谷歌,還擊敗了其他所有大型科技公司。名列十強(qiáng)的科技公司沒有一家能夠緊跟蘋果的步伐。時間回到2005年,那時的蘋果在科技公司十強(qiáng)中名列倒數(shù)第二,凈收益僅為當(dāng)時的老大——微軟(Microsoft)的六分之一。

????而如今的蘋果已經(jīng)將其他科技公司遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)甩在身后,它的凈收益是大多數(shù)公司的三倍還多。此外,盡管蘋果規(guī)模龐大,但其增長率依然遠(yuǎn)超其他位列十強(qiáng)的科技公司。不僅如此,蘋果的市盈率比科技十強(qiáng)中的大多數(shù)都低。這種情況下,谷歌如何同蘋果競爭?蘋果已經(jīng)獨領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷,無可匹敵。下面的圖表就是有力的證明:

????我們再來展望一下這兩家公司的未來。通過比較兩家公司預(yù)計在2013年的收入和凈收益,我們來看看到底有什么理由可以讓我們更傾向于購買谷歌的股票。

????Year after year Apple is the proven winner, while Google pundits continue to cling onto delusions that Google is somehow a better value "next year." And yet this time next year, Apple's earnings growth and stock performance will absolutely decimate Google's earnings and stock performance, and we will still hear the same arguments about how "the market is forward looking" and how Google will win "next time."

????The reality is that Apple is not only destroying Google in this race, it is destroying all large cap technology companies. Not a solitary top-10 tech company has been able to even remotely keep up pace with Apple. If you go back to 2005, Apple was the second smallest of the top-10 in tech reporting only 1/6th the net income of Microsoft — the then leader.

????Today Apple far exceeds every other tech company and reports more than three times the net income than most of them. What's more, despite Apple's size, its growth rate continues to far exceed the other top-10 tech companies. Yet, somehow Apple maintains a much lower P/E ratio than most of these top-10 companies. So how is Google supposed to compete with Apple when Apple is in its own league without a competitor? The chart below speaks volumes:

????Let's take a look at the future prospects of the these two companies, comparing the revenue and earnings outlook for 2013 to see whether a case can be made to own Google over Apple.

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