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谷歌Vs.蘋果:股民該買誰?

谷歌Vs.蘋果:股民該買誰?

Andy M. Zaky 2012-10-25
別吵了,看看數字就知道,答案很明顯。蘋果在股市上的表現不僅遠遠超過谷歌,而且超過所有的大型科技公司。更重要的是,蘋果在未來幾年依然有望繼續維持高速增長。

????2009年,蘋果的凈收益有史以來首次超過谷歌。三年以后,蘋果的凈收益已經是谷歌的三倍。預計到2013年,蘋果的凈收益會達到谷歌的四倍,增長率則會是谷歌的兩倍。通過這組數據,可以看出智能手機市場和廣告市場在規模上的巨大差距。這還能算是勢均力敵的競爭嗎?以下這張表格有力地說明,過去的三年中,蘋果的表現究竟比谷歌好上多少。

????如果你覺得看起來簡直不可思議,不妨再看看這兩家公司的收入對比圖。iPhone面世之前,蘋果的銷售額僅比谷歌稍多一點。實際上,那點差距不足掛齒。不過到了如今,蘋果的銷售額已經把谷歌遠遠甩在了后頭,差距之大令人咋舌。預計等到今年的賬目公布時,蘋果的收入可能會接近谷歌的四倍。

????做個對比,2007年蘋果的收入僅比谷歌多出50%。也就是說,2007到2012這五年間,這個差距被放大了8倍。而且,種種跡象表明,到了2013、2014和2015年,當蘋果朝著單季銷售2億部iPhone的目標持續邁進時,這種差距還會繼續擴大。據估計,明年iPhone的銷售量可達到每季度約4,000萬到5,000萬部。而早在2009年,當時蘋果單季售出800萬部iPhone的年代,谷歌的收入就已經無法趕上蘋果了。

????以上事實已經證明,在2007年之后,任何試圖辯稱谷歌的買入時機比蘋果更好的人都是大錯特錯。他們不僅沒有看到近年來蘋果的股市表現比谷歌好上三倍,還弄錯了凈收益的增長和估值的情況。以下的圖表對蘋果和谷歌的收入增長速度進行了對比。我們可以看到,即使蘋果的收入達到谷歌的四倍,凈收益是谷歌的三倍,蘋果在這兩項指標上的增長速度依然比谷歌快上一倍——而且外界普遍預測,蘋果在2013年依然能夠保持這樣的增長勢頭。

????盡管在收入和凈收益方面,蘋果都把谷歌遠遠甩在后頭,但是蘋果在交易估值上卻遠低于谷歌。所以,蘋果不僅在收入、增長率、市場規模、提升潛力上都力壓谷歌,相對估值也更低:它的市銷率、市盈率、市現率都遠低于谷歌。

????In 2009, Apple earned more than Google in net income for the first time in its history. Three years later, Apple reported three times as much in net income as Google. In 2013, Apple is expected to quadruple Google's net income and report twice Google's growth rate. That gives you a sense of the size of the smartphone market relative to the ad market. Can this even be remotely characterized as a close contest? This chart below tells a very powerful visual story of how much Apple has outperformed Google over the past three years.

????If you think that looks dramatic, take a look at the revenue comparison of these two companies. Before the advent of the iPhone, Apple had maintained a small lead on Google when it came to sales. It was never really anything very significant. Today, it's mind-boggling how much Apple has pulled away from Google in terms of sales. When the books are closed on the year, Apple will likely have reported nearly four times Google's revenue.

????In 2007, by contrast, Apple only reported 50% more in revenue than Google. Thus, the gap in sales between Google and Apple has widened by a factor of eight between 2007 and 2012. And everything points to that gap widening even further in 2013, 2014 and 2015 as Apple gets closer to selling 200 million iPhones a quarter. Apple is expected to sell roughly 40 to 50 million iPhones per quarter next year. Google still hasn't been able to surpass what Apple made in revenue when it sold only 8 million iPhones a quarter back in 2009.

????What this all demonstrates is that anyone who has argued that Google was a better buying opportunity than Apple in any year since 2007 has been dead wrong. They have been dead wrong not only from a stock performance perspective given that Apple's stock has outperformed Google by a factor of 3-1 over the past several years now, but they have been wrong from a pure earnings growth and valuation perspective as well. The chart below compares Apple's revenue growth to Google's. Notice how even though Apple reports four times Google's revenue, and even though Apple reports three times as much in net income as Google, Apple still grows at twice the pace of Google on both the top and bottom-line on a percentage basis — and it is widely expected it will do so in 2013 as well:

????Despite the fact that Apple has been able to far outpace Google's top and bottom-line growth, Apple still trades at a far lower valuation than Google. So Apple not only makes more money than Google, grows its earnings faster than Google, operates in a larger market than Google, has much greater upside earnings potential than Google, but it also trades at a substantially lower valuation. Apple's price-to-sales ratio, price-earnings ratio and price-to-cash ratio are currently much lower than Google's.

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