????如果在西班牙救助協議上食言，德國在投資者中間的信譽可能受損，未來再推動達成協議可能會受到質疑。但這是德國的強硬姿態，很多投資者相信這是引起西班牙注意的唯一辦法。畢竟，周二西班牙又公布，今年前8個月聯邦政府赤字同比增長近5%。西班牙保守黨政府曾承諾將今年的預算赤字降至GDP的6.3%，低于2011年的8.9%。隨著預算赤字上升，西班牙穩定赤字顯然無望，更別提降低赤字了。在這種情況下，人們可以將德國的施壓視為合理，因為德國同意如果西班牙邁向穩定財政體制之路，就能獲得這筆救助資金。

????如果西班牙想得到1,000億歐元的救助資金，它在宣布預算時可能就做出更大幅的削減。西班牙政府或許認為自己受到了威逼，但它對威逼并不陌生。畢竟，西班牙在面對負債累累的各省區時，狀況是相似的。周二， 西班牙歷來較窮的省區安達盧西亞就暗示稱，可能需要從聯邦政府獲得50億歐元的救助資金才能收支相抵。

????長時間以來，像安達盧西亞這樣的貧窮省區和埃斯特雷馬杜拉等其他省區從聯邦政府獲得的稅收收入比例與它們對西班牙總體GDP的貢獻不成比例。換言之，像加泰羅尼亞、巴利阿里群島和馬德里這樣的省區對整個體系的貢獻高于它們所獲得的。雖然這聽起來不公平，但通常聯邦安排就是這樣，如果歐洲考慮構建一個更緊密的財政聯盟，就需要效法這樣的制度。

????但從西班牙身上，我們也可以看到在互異的省區間實現財政集權可能產生的一些問題。擁有西班牙第二大城市巴塞羅那和第二語言卡泰蘭的西班牙省區加泰羅尼亞的領導人們已威脅要退出西班牙聯邦，除非它能獲得更多財政自主權。他們還聲稱，將財富轉出加泰羅尼亞是導致該省當前預算赤字達8%上下的原因。

????西班牙保守黨領導人不像自由黨人，強烈反對給予省區更多自治。他們譴責加泰羅尼亞領導人，稱這只會讓情況雪上加霜。他們指出，加泰羅尼亞不能合法退出，即使退出，將來它如果作為一個獨立國家申請加入歐盟，西班牙也會“無限期”地投反對票。事情可能根本不會到這一步，據報道，依然非常保守的西班牙軍方已暗示，如果加泰羅尼亞投票退出聯盟，他們將出兵占領該省區。目前的西班牙軍方沿襲自西班牙內戰時期，當年弗朗西斯科?佛朗哥將軍曾推翻政府并建立了長達36年的獨裁統治。.

????但所有這些退出討論可能只是談判籌碼。與西班牙其他17個省區一樣，加泰羅尼亞完全被債券市場拒之門外。這意味著它需要聯邦政府代其出售債券，最近這也變得很難。兩周前，加泰羅尼亞要求從180億歐元的省區救助基金中獲得50億歐元。它告訴聯邦政府，他們希望這些資金不附加任何先決條件。但聯邦政府已經拒絕并指出，繼巴塞羅那房地產崩盤后債務大增的加泰羅尼亞基本上需要縮減開支，才能使其財政回到正軌上來。

????雖然退出對于某些人可能只是談判籌碼，也有真正的卡泰蘭民族主義者將此視為一次最終從西班牙獨立出去的機會。去年在加泰羅尼亞生活的人中僅25%投票支持退出，但本周發布的最新民意調查顯示，支持率已增加了一倍剛剛超過50%。

????By potentially reneging on the Spanish deal, Germany could damage its credibility with investors who may come to doubt its word when brokering future deals. But this is Germany's way of playing hardball, which for many investors is the only way to get Spain's attention. After all, Spain reported Tuesday that the federal government's budget deficit is up nearly 5% in the first eight months of the year compared to the same time last year. Spain's conservative government promised to cut the nation's budget deficit to 6.3% of GDP this year from 8.9% in 2011. With the budget deficit up, it is clear that Spain will fail to get anywhere close to stabilizing its deficit, let alone reducing it. In that case one can interpret the German pressure as justified as they agreed to let Spain have the money thinking that it was on its way to stabilizing its fiscal regime.

????Spain will probably need to make more impressive cuts when it announces its budget if it wants its 100 billion euro. The Spanish government may think it is being bullied about, but it is no stranger to bullying. After all, it has to deal with a similar situation with its own provinces, which are drowning in debt. Yesterday, Andalucía, which has traditionally been one of the poorer provinces in Spain, hinted that it may need a 5 billion euro bailout from the federal government to make ends meet.

????The poorer provinces, like Andalucía and others like Extremadura, already receive a disproportionate level of taxes based on their contribution to Spain's overall GDP. That means the richer states like Catalonia, the Balearic Islands and Madrid usually pay more into the system than they get out. While that sounds unfair, it's a normal federal arrangement, something that Europe should look to emulate as it considers forming a closer fiscal union.

????But Spain offers a glimpse of some of the troubles that come with the centralization of fiscal power among disparate states. The leaders of the Spanish province of Catalonia, home to Spain's second city, Barcelona, and second language, Catalan, have threatened to secede from the Spanish federation unless it is given more control over its finances. It believes that the transfer of wealth out of Catalonia was the reason why it is currently running a budget deficit of around 8%.

????Spain's conservative leaders, who, unlike their liberal counterparts, are vehemently against granting provinces further autonomy, have criticized Catalonia's leaders, saying that it has basically made a bad situation even worse. They noted that Catalonia cannot legally secede but if it did, Spain would veto its eventual application to the EU as an independent nation "indefinitely." It might not even get that far as the Spanish military, which remains very conservative, has reportedly hinted that they stand ready to invade and occupy Catalonia if it votes to secede from the union. The current Spanish military, after all, descends from the days of the Spanish civil war where General Francisco Franco overthrew the government and set up a dictatorship that would last for 36 years.

????But all the talk about secession may just be a bargaining chip. Catalonia, like the rest of Spain's 17 provinces, is totally shut out of the debt markets. That means it needs the federal government to sell bonds on its behalf, which has been difficult lately. Two weeks ago, Catalonia asked the federal government for 5 billion euros from the 18 billion euro provincial bailout fund. It told the federal government that they wanted the money with no preconditions. But the federal government has refused, noting that Catalonia, which has racked up major debts following the property crash in Barcelona, basically needs to cut spending to put its finances on the right track.

????While secession may just be a bargaining chip to some, there are real Catalan nationalists that see this as an opportunity to finally win independence from Spain. Last year only 25% of people living in Catalonia would vote for secession, but recent polling out this week show that support has doubled to just over 50%.