????隨著歐債危機不斷加深，從馬德里爆發游行騷亂到巴塞羅那威脅退出西班牙聯邦，西班牙已經搖搖欲墜，看上去隨時都可能墜入政治和經濟毀滅的深淵。上個月歐洲央行（European Central Bank）經改進的債券購買計劃使歐元區暫時得以保全，但西班牙等成員國的結構性效率低下問題每況愈下，可能從內拖垮歐元區。

????歐洲和西班牙將沿著這一經濟裂口的高速路繼續飛奔，直到它們都愿意做出艱難的讓步，建立更協調一致的政治和經濟聯盟。

????但西班牙緩慢演化的經濟崩潰似乎說明，只有情況變得越來越糟，歐元區領導人才會愿意放下面子來做出改觀。

????歐洲央行的債券計劃為共同協作贏得了一些時間，但這點時間的流逝速度看來快于人們的預期。隨著西班牙經濟陷入停滯，該國已爆發了民眾騷亂，并扯開了舊的政治裂痕，威脅到國家領土的完整統一。

????這也扭轉了西班牙利率的下行走勢，自歐洲央行上個月宣布了改進后的債券購買計劃，西班牙利率都是保持下行走勢，直到本周二。周三早間，西班牙10年期國債利率突破了6%大關，躍升0.26%，是自8月份以來西班牙國債收益率的最大漲幅。周二，西班牙財政部發行52億美元短期債券時也不得不向投資者支付更高的收益率。3個月債券的利率達到1.2%，顯著高于8月份發行類似期限債券時支付0.9%的利率。

????目前歐洲央行的無限量債券購買計劃尚未啟動，因為歐元區成員國批準的多項幾十億歐元的救助計劃仍陷于無盡的官僚繁縟中（歐洲央行計劃動用部分該救助基金，幫助支付最初的債券購買）。歐洲央行可以現在就出手干預，但這意味著將進一步擴大其早已膨脹的資產負債表規模，歐洲央行行長馬里奧?德拉吉不希望在救助基金用盡前就陷入這樣的困境。

????救助基金承諾向西班牙提供約1,000億歐元，幫助其陷入困境的銀行體系。此協議于今夏早些時候達成，最初提供給西班牙時不附帶任何先決條件或預算承諾。但周二，這項協議看來有點懸了，德國、荷蘭和芬蘭的財政部長們發表了一份聯合聲明稱，各國應當承擔起本國銀行業資本重整的成本，然后才能向救助基金求助。

????發表聲明的時機絕非巧合。周四，西班牙政府將發布2013年預算。周五，獨立咨詢公司奧緯咨詢（Oliver Wyman）按計劃將發布其對西班牙銀行進行壓力測試的最終結果。德國似乎是在傳遞這樣一個信息：如果西班牙想獲得1,000億歐元，就要大幅削減預算，雖然最初的協議是他們可以無條件地獲得這筆錢。

????西班牙已為國內17個省區政府設立了總計180億歐元的救助基金，不到西班牙銀行業資本重整預計所需資金600億歐元的三分之一。如果西班牙必須要先用這筆錢，明年西班牙各省的預算將出現巨大的缺口。如果西班牙大量發行新債，債券收益率將升至令人不安的高位。因此，要再拿出420億歐元（或許通過更多的緊縮措施）根本就是不可能，特別是考慮到西班牙經濟的現狀。

????From riots in Madrid to talk of secession in Barcelona, Spain appears to be teetering on the edge of political and economic ruin as the European debt crisis intensifies. While the European Central Bank's revamped bond buying scheme unveiled last month was successful in keeping the eurozone together temporarily, the structural deficiencies inside member states, like Spain, continue to fester, threatening to rot the eurozone from the inside out.

????Europe and Spain will continue down this autopista of economic tears until they are both willing to make the tough sacrifices that come with establishing a more coherent political and economic union.

????But Spain's slow motion implosion seems to indicate that things will have to get much worse before eurozone leaders are willing to swallow their pride to make things better.

????The ECB's bond scheme bought the continent some time to get its act together, but that time seems to be fading much faster than anyone had predicted. Spain's economic troubles are boiling over as its economy stalls, creating civil unrest and exposing old political cleavages threatening the nation's sovereign integrity.

????This has reversed the downward trend in Spanish interest rates, which until Tuesday had been falling since the ECB announced its revamped bond buying scheme last month. The Spanish 10-year bond jumped 0.26% in early Wednesday morning trading to break 6%, which is the biggest jump in yield for Spanish debt since August. Meanwhile, yesterday, the Spanish treasury was forced to pay investors a higher yield as it issued $5.2 billion in short term debt. The interest rate on three-month bills came in at 1.2%, which was significantly higher than the 0.9% it paid to issue similarly dated debt back in August.

????The ECB's unlimited bond buying plan has yet to take off as the various multi-billion dollar bailout schemes, which have already been approved by eurozone members, continue to linger in bureaucratic limbo (the ECB plans on using part of the bailout fund to help pay for its initial bond purchases). The ECB could intervene now, but that would mean it would be increasing the size of its already bloated balance sheet, something Mario Draghi, the head of the ECB, wants to avoid until the bailout fund is drained first.

????The bailout fund has already committed around 100 billion euros to Spain to help its crippled network of banks. The deal, agreed to earlier this summer, was extended to Spain initially without any preconditions or budgetary promises. But yesterday, that deal appeared to be in doubt as the finance ministers of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland issued a joint statement that individual nation states should bear the cost of recapitalizing their banking sector first before coming to the bailout trough.

????The timing of the announcement is no coincidence. On Thursday, the Spanish government will unveil its 2013 budget while on Friday the independent consulting firm of Oliver Wyman is set to release the final results of the stress test it conducted on Spanish banks. Germany seems to be sending a message that Spain's budget needs to incorporate some serious cuts if it plans on getting its 100 billion euros, despite the original agreement that they would get the money with no preconditions.

????Spain has set up a bailout fund for its 17 provincial governments totaling 18 billion euros, which is less than a third of the projected 60 billion euros needed to recapitalize its banks. If it has to use that money first, then Spain's provinces will see massive holes in their budgets next year. If it issues a lot of new debt, yields will rise to uncomfortably high levels. So coming up with the other 42 billion euros, possibly through further austerity measures, is simply impossible, especially given how poorly the Spanish economy is doing at the moment.