????如果歐洲弱國繼續留在歐元區內，兩大問題就不可能得到解決。一是政客和監管機構討論最多的巨額主權債務，像希臘和意大利等國的債務/GDP比率都已經超過了100%。第二個問題更嚴重，歐豬五國葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、意大利、希臘和西班牙由于生產成本過高（尤其是相對于德國），嚴重缺乏競爭力。西班牙和意大利的制造商們在與進口商品的競爭中紛紛敗下陣來，倒閉無數。

????這種競爭力差距是十年來逐漸形成的，主要源于歐洲“核心”國家和“外圍”國家間驚人的勞工成本差異。從1999年至2011年，西班牙單位勞動成本——生產一輛汽車或一部電腦所需的工資和福利——每年增長4.3%，意大利增長3.4%，愛爾蘭增長4.1%，而德國每年僅增長0.9%。據布托估算，這使得外圍國家的競爭力落后于核心國家高達30-40%。由此，意大利出口占全球比重已從上世紀90年代末的5%下降到了去年的約2%。

????如果繼續留在歐元區，外圍國家要解決競爭力問題就只能通過緊縮政策——讓高失業率壓低工資，加稅以及縮減政府開支。“這個過程可能需要10年，”布托表示。更糟的是，這些國家的債務和付息仍以歐元計價并保持增長，但稅收卻在下降。這些國家出現債務違約后要留在歐元區，幾乎是不可能的。“歐洲央行一直在向弱國的銀行業提供支持，”倫敦政治經濟學院（London School of Economics）的查爾斯?古德哈特稱。“抵押品主要是這些國家的主權債券。如果這些債券違約，向銀行提供的所有救助將中止，導致銀行倒閉。”

????盡早退出，可以一石二鳥地解決債務和競爭力這兩大問題。布托認為，有可能外圍國家會逐一退出。他在研究中總結稱，雖然退出的合法性尚不明確，但如果這對于一個國家的經濟存亡至關重要，在國際法中是站得住腳的。退出前也不需要議會的批準。這很重要，因為事前必須保密。

????譯者：早稻米

????The continent's weaker nations can't possibly solve their two big problems if they remain in the common currency. The first problem is the one the politicians and regulators talk about most: the huge overhang of sovereign debt, exceeding 100% of GDP in nations such as Greece and Italy. But the second is even more important. Europe's PIIGS -- Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain -- all suffer from a drastic loss of competitiveness because they face an excessive cost of production, especially compared with Germany. That disparity has decimated manufacturers in Spain and Italy struggling to compete with imports.

????The competitiveness gap was a decade in the making. Its main source is the shocking divergence in labor costs between Europe's two tiers, which we'll call the "core" and "peripheral" nations. From 1999 to 2011, unit labor costs -- the wages and benefits required to produce a car or computer -- rose 4.3% a year in Spain, 3.4% in Italy, and 4.1% in Ireland, compared with a 0.9% annual increase in Germany. That leaves the peripheral countries with a competitiveness gap of 30% to 40% vs. the core nations, by Bootle's estimate. As a result, Italy's exports as a share of the world total dropped from 5% in the late 1990s to about 2% last year.

????If they remain in the euro, peripheral countries must solve their competitiveness problem through austerity -- by letting high unemployment grind down wages, by raising taxes, and by slashing government spending. "That process could take 10 years," says Bootle. Worse, their debt and interest payments would remain in euros and keep rising, while tax receipts fall. It would be nearly impossible for those nations to default on their debt and stay in the eurozone. "The ECB has been supporting the banks in weak countries," says Charles Goodhart of the London School of Economics. "The collateral is largely their sovereign bonds. If they default, all aid to the banks would cease, causing their collapse."

????An immediate exit could solve both the debt and the competitiveness problems in a single stroke. Bootle believes it's likely that peripheral countries will begin to split off one by one. In his study, he concludes that although the legality of an exit is fuzzy, it can be justified under international law as essential to a country's economic survival. Nor would it require approval of Parliament prior to departure. That's important, given the need for secrecy.