????羅杰?布托常常自詡為16世紀的大預言家諾查丹馬斯，不過也確有幾分道理。1999年，這位英國經(jīng)濟學家成功地預測了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的破裂，后來在2003年出版的《金錢無用》（Money for Nothing）一書中又預言，全球范圍內(nèi)的房地產(chǎn)崩盤將對金融系統(tǒng)造成災難性的打擊。現(xiàn)年60歲的布托是位不折不扣的市場論學者，曾在牛津大學（Oxford）任教，擔任過匯豐銀行（HSBC）的首席經(jīng)濟學家，如今是倫敦咨詢公司凱投宏觀（Capital Economics）的董事總經(jīng)理。凱投宏觀的倫敦辦公室位于白金漢宮附近一座19世紀的維多利亞風格聯(lián)排住所中，從這里，已經(jīng)謝頂、戴著眼鏡的布托胸有成竹地向從紐約到北京的大銀行和對沖基金做出建議。但走出辦公室，這位公務員的兒子不太愛冒險。他喜歡在英國著名的Ascot Racecourse賽馬場放松心情，押注不過是“5英鎊或10英鎊，只是為了能夠歡呼加油”。

????如今，布托將自己的職業(yè)聲譽押在了又一項大膽的反主流預測上，一項可能對全球經(jīng)濟和股票市場產(chǎn)生深遠影響的預測：他堅信，至少歐元區(qū)的部分解體是不可避免的，目前有17個國家共同采用的歐元將迎來巨變。這17個國家的GDP占到了全球總量的八分之一。

????7月份，布托和他的團隊榮獲了著名的沃爾夫森經(jīng)濟學獎（Wolfson Economics Prize），圍繞“如果成員國退出經(jīng)濟與貨幣聯(lián)盟（Economic and Monetary Union）, 管理這一經(jīng)濟過程的最佳方式”交出了一份最佳答卷。布托在題為《退出歐元：實用指南》（Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide）的這份114頁報告中為成員國退出這一共同貨幣聯(lián)盟時應當采取的步驟繪出了藍圖。同時，他還更進一步，拋出了一個有力的觀點，相信弱國退出歐元區(qū)是解決歐洲經(jīng)濟沉疴的唯一途徑。

????布托積極宣揚這些不受歡迎的觀點。“歐元就是一個制造衰退的機器，”他告訴《財富》雜志（Fortune）。“政客們不斷撒錢，幫助弱國應對債務問題。他們從來不談恢復增長。歐元解體絕不會成為災難，這是歐洲重現(xiàn)增長、脫離當前困境的唯一途徑。越快越好。”

????決策層繼續(xù)采取截然不同的方式。歐洲的政治首腦和監(jiān)管機構(gòu)幾乎無一例外地堅定支持歐元，口口聲聲是歐元解體將帶來經(jīng)濟世界末日（Armageddon）。對歐元區(qū)將延續(xù)的樂觀情緒于9月6日升溫，歐洲央行（European Central Bank）行長馬里奧?德拉吉宣布了一項收購歐元區(qū)弱國主權(quán)債務的龐大計劃，并宣稱“歐元是不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的”。隨后，9月12日，德國一家法院批準了該國參與擁有6,450億美元借貸能力的救助基金——歐洲穩(wěn)定機制（European Stability Mechanism）。由于前景可能緩和，標準普爾500指數(shù)（S&P 500）在5個交易日中漲了2.4% 。

????但這些持續(xù)的救助只是換取了一些時間。即便是最害怕歐元解體的經(jīng)濟學家們也承認，解體可能最終不可避免，除非德國和其他狀況好的國家向弱國提供遠比現(xiàn)在多得多的幫助。“歐洲需要創(chuàng)建由歐元區(qū)所有成員國共同參與的聯(lián)邦式債務分擔機制。”希臘經(jīng)濟學家亞尼斯?瓦魯法克斯稱。“如果不這樣，歐元區(qū)可能就會散伙了。”

????言下之意是賭布托預測對了，也就是說歐元區(qū)將在未來幾年內(nèi)瓦解。結(jié)果將是隨即而來的極度震蕩，退出國遭遇重重困境——大批企業(yè)破產(chǎn)、巨額的主權(quán)債務違約，全球股市一時陷入恐慌。但如果弱國繼續(xù)留在歐元區(qū)，這樣的痛苦終究也會到來，歐元解體只不過是把這些痛苦濃縮進了一次重擊。然而，長痛不如短痛。正如布托所說，歐洲必須選擇增長，相信歐元解體后經(jīng)濟增長將以出人意料的速度早日重現(xiàn)。讓我們參照他的報告，看看成功的解體將如何展開。

????Roger Bootle prides himself on being something of a modern-day Nostradamus -- with good reason. In 1999 the British economist predicted a bursting of the dotcom bubble, and in his 2003 book, Money for Nothing, he forecast a worldwide crash in housing that would prove dire for the financial system. A rigorous student of markets, Bootle, 60, is a onetime Oxford don and chief economist for HSBC (HBC) who now runs Capital Economics, a London consulting firm. Operating out of a 19th-century Victorian townhouse near Buckingham Palace, the bald, bespectacled son of a civil servant confidently advises major banks and hedge funds from New York to Beijing. But away from the office he isn't much of a risk-taker. Bootle likes to unwind at England's famous Ascot Racecourse, where he wagers no more than "five or 10 quid just so I have a horse to cheer home."

????Today Bootle is betting his professional reputation on another bold contrarian call, one with long-term ramifications for the world economy and global stock markets: He strongly believes that at least a partial breakup of the eurozone is inevitable and that massive changes are coming for the euro, the currency now shared by 17 nations accounting for one-eighth of world GDP.

????In July, Bootle and his team won the prestigious Wolfson Economics Prize for providing the best answer to the following question: "If member states leave the Economic and Monetary Union, what is the best way for the economic process to be managed?" In a 114-page report, "Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide," Bootle delivered a blueprint for the steps a nation should take in exiting the common currency. He also went further, summoning a powerful argument for why an exodus of weak countries is the only solution for Europe's deep malaise.

????Bootle is not shy about championing his highly unpopular view. "The euro is a depression-making machine," he tells Fortune. "The politicians keep throwing money to support the weaker nations' debt problem. They never talk about restoring growth. Far from a disaster, a breakup of the euro is the only way to bring back growth and get Europe out of this mess. It can't happen soon enough."

????Policymakers continue to take a diametrically opposite approach. Almost without exception, Europe's political leaders and regulators strongly back the euro's survival and generally claim that a breakup would bring economic Armageddon. Optimism that the eurozone will hold rose on Sept. 6, when Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank, announced a giant program for purchasing the sovereign debt of weak eurozone nations. Draghi further stated that "the euro is irreversible." Then, on Sept. 12, a German court approved the country's participation in the European Stability Mechanism, a rescue fund with a lending capacity of $645 billion. Over five trading sessions, the S&P 500 jumped 2.4% in a potent relief rally.

????But the continued bailouts are just buying time. Even economists who dread a euro breakup admit that it will probably happen eventually unless Germany and other healthy nations provide far greater support to their weak neighbors. "Europe needs to create federal-style debt shared by all the eurozone members," says Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis. "If that doesn't happen, the eurozone will probably dissolve."

????The bet here is that Bootle is right and that the euro will fracture in the next few years. The result will be extremely messy in the immediate aftermath, bringing severe hardship to the exiting countries -- a rash of bankruptcies, giant defaults on sovereign debt, and temporary panic in world stock markets. But the pain that a breakup compresses into a one-time shock will happen anyway if weak nations remain in the euro. It will simply stretch over a number of years and turn out far worse. As Bootle argues, Europe must choose growth, and a split in the euro will bring it back with surprising speed. Let's use his report as a guide for how a successful breakup could play out.