????信用評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)風(fēng)暴現(xiàn)在終于刮向了處在金字塔尖的國(guó)家。本周早些時(shí)候，穆迪（Moody's）將歐元區(qū)的優(yōu)等生德國(guó)、荷蘭和盧森堡列入了負(fù)面信用觀察，認(rèn)為這三個(gè)國(guó)家，特別是德國(guó)，很難不受歐洲大陸經(jīng)濟(jì)困境的影響。受此消息影響，德國(guó)國(guó)債收益率在周二交易中小幅上揚(yáng)，周三繼續(xù)走高，因?yàn)榈聡?guó)10年期國(guó)債拍賣對(duì)投資者的吸引力降到了異乎尋常的低谷。

????德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)目前雖無(wú)大礙，但也談不上健康。近幾個(gè)月來(lái)把一些歐元區(qū)鄰國(guó)拉下馬的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題事實(shí)上同樣也困擾著德國(guó)。但與鄰國(guó)不同，德國(guó)在此次危機(jī)中并未倒下，甚至還實(shí)現(xiàn)了略微的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮，這要感謝德國(guó)強(qiáng)勁的出口以及審慎資本管家的聲譽(yù)。但隨著出口放緩，名聲受損，德國(guó)看起來(lái)已經(jīng)沒(méi)有那么火熱了。加上它承諾向歐元區(qū)救助計(jì)劃提供的所有資金，德國(guó)不免看起來(lái)有些外強(qiáng)中干。

????德國(guó)在國(guó)家名聲遭受到永久性傷害前，應(yīng)當(dāng)趁自己還有能力的時(shí)候，運(yùn)用各種力量推動(dòng)建設(shè)一個(gè)更緊密的歐元區(qū)。希望藉此德國(guó)能避免陷入壓垮鄰國(guó)的那種經(jīng)濟(jì)混亂，確保自己在歐元區(qū)金字塔體系中應(yīng)有的地位。

????德國(guó)一直極大地受益于歐元，如果德國(guó)愿意掏錢讓歐元活下去，也不難理解。這一共同貨幣消除了匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，使德國(guó)能夠更加容易地向歐元區(qū)伙伴國(guó)出口。與此同時(shí)，德國(guó)能增加向非歐元區(qū)國(guó)家的出口。假設(shè)其他條件不變，德國(guó)保留原有貨幣德國(guó)馬克，其匯率肯定會(huì)高于當(dāng)前的歐元匯率。

????整個(gè)歐元區(qū)危機(jī)期間，德國(guó)一直被指責(zé)沒(méi)有顯示出足夠的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力，任由這場(chǎng)危機(jī)不斷延續(xù)，拿不出一個(gè)持續(xù)的解決方案。但一直到最近以前，這場(chǎng)遷延經(jīng)年的危機(jī)看來(lái)在某種程度上還推動(dòng)了德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。比如，由于歐元在市場(chǎng)中遭受的打壓，德國(guó)對(duì)非歐元區(qū)國(guó)家的出口獲得了有益的提振。它幫助德國(guó)在2011年創(chuàng)下了強(qiáng)勁的GDP增速（增長(zhǎng)3.5%），同期歐元區(qū)兄弟國(guó)家大多都在遭受深度的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

????但這些好事最終會(huì)到頭。今年以來(lái)，德國(guó)官方的2012 年GDP增速預(yù)測(cè)已經(jīng)數(shù)次向下修正，最新預(yù)計(jì)將顯著低于1%。這種情況一部分與德國(guó)的出口有關(guān)。德國(guó)對(duì)歐元區(qū)伙伴國(guó)的依賴程度超出了最初的想象。今年5月，歐元走軟幫助德國(guó)對(duì)非歐元區(qū)國(guó)家的貿(mào)易同比增長(zhǎng)了3.4%，但歐洲持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將德國(guó)與其他16個(gè)歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)的貿(mào)易拉低了2.3%。由于歐元區(qū)貿(mào)易占德國(guó)出口的三分之二，德國(guó)對(duì)非歐元區(qū)的出口增長(zhǎng)不足以彌補(bǔ)歐元區(qū)內(nèi)部貿(mào)易的下降。

????與此同時(shí)，本周發(fā)布的最新數(shù)據(jù)似乎也印證，德國(guó)的出口引擎已經(jīng)熄火。7月份，對(duì)德國(guó)制造的新產(chǎn)品的需求下降到了2009年5月以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。7月份德國(guó)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人綜合指數(shù)也因此被推低至47.3，為2009年6月以來(lái)最低。采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)低于50，基本上表明經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)處于收縮期，因此，德國(guó)很可能也處于經(jīng)濟(jì)零增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期。

????鑒于德國(guó)越來(lái)越不可靠的財(cái)政狀況，這種情形令人擔(dān)憂。雖然德國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模龐大，但該國(guó)仍沒(méi)有創(chuàng)造出足夠的稅收收入來(lái)滿足支出需求。歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局（Eurostat）周一發(fā)布的報(bào)告稱，今年第一季度德國(guó)的債務(wù)/GDP比率為81.6%，較前一季度增加了0.4%。雖然這一數(shù)據(jù)低于肆意揮霍的鄰國(guó)（像希臘和法國(guó)分別達(dá)到了123%和89%），但仍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)本應(yīng)遵循60%的上限。另外，雖然德國(guó)成功地縮減了開(kāi)支，但該國(guó)2011年財(cái)政赤字仍然高達(dá)258億歐元。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑，預(yù)算缺口預(yù)計(jì)還將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。

????德國(guó)居高不下的債務(wù)/GDP比率或許還只是冰山一角。穆迪在將德國(guó)列入負(fù)面信用觀察時(shí)指出，它關(guān)注德國(guó)由于此次歐債危機(jī)所增加的債務(wù)，包括向各種歐洲救助基金提供的數(shù)以十億計(jì)的歐元。據(jù)估算，德國(guó)提供的與救助相關(guān)的現(xiàn)金和擔(dān)保達(dá)到了約2,110億歐元。如果把這個(gè)數(shù)字加在德國(guó)當(dāng)前2萬(wàn)億歐元的負(fù)債之上，德國(guó)的債務(wù)/GDP比率將躍升至近90%。另外，這些債務(wù)數(shù)字還沒(méi)有包含德國(guó)理應(yīng)承擔(dān)的社會(huì)保障、醫(yī)療和養(yǎng)老支付義務(wù)面臨的資金缺口。弗萊堡大學(xué)（Freiburg University）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授伯德?哈夫拉辛稱，把所有這些加起來(lái)，德國(guó)國(guó)家債務(wù)將再增5萬(wàn)億歐元。這將使德國(guó)的債務(wù)/GDP比率飆升至令人瞠目的284%。

????The downgrade machine has finally worked its way up to the top. Moody's earlier this week placed the crème-de-la-crème of the troubled eurozone - Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg - on negative credit watch, noting that the three nations, especially Germany, were not immune to the economic troubles on the continent. German bond yields nudged slightly higher in trading on the news Tuesday, and went even higher on Wednesday as a German 10-year bond auction drew uncharacteristically weak demand from investors.

????Germany isn't in grave economic trouble at the moment, but it isn't the picture of economic health, either. It actually suffers from some of the same underlying economic problems that have caused its neighbors to keel over in recent months. Unlike its neighbors, Germany has been able to stay afloat, even somewhat prosper, during the crisis, thanks to its strong export machine and its reputation as a prudent steward of capital. But with its export machine slowing and its reputation now bruised, Germany isn't looking so hot. Add in all the money it has committed to the eurozone bailout and Germany starts to look somewhat weak.

????Before any permanent damage is done to its reputation, Germany should use its clout to push for a much closer eurozone now while it still can. This will shield it from experiencing the kind of economic dislocation that has crushed its neighbors. It will also ensure its rightful place at the top of the eurozone pyramid.

????Germany has benefitted greatly from the euro, so it makes sense that it would spend money to keep it alive. The currency eliminated exchange rate risk, making it much easier for Germany to export to its eurozone partners. At the same time, Germany, in particular, has also been able to increase exports to non-eurozone countries. The exchange rate of the euro is weaker than it would be, all things being equal, if Germany had kept its old currency, the Deutsche Mark.

????Germany has been criticized throughout the eurozone crisis for not showing enough leadership, by allowing the crisis to drag on and on without a lasting solution. But up until very recently it appeared that the prolonged crisis has in some ways helped Germany grow its economy. Its exports outside the eurozone for instance have received a healthy boost thanks to the hammering the euro has taken in the markets. This helped Germany record strong GDP growth in 2011 (up 3.5%) while its eurozone brethren were suffering in deep recession.

????But all good things eventually come to an end. Germany's estimated GDP growth rate for 2012 has been revised down several times throughout the year and is now expected to come in well below 1%. Part of that has to do with its export machine. It turns out that Germany needs its eurozone partners more than originally believed. For example, while the cheap euro helped Germany grow its trade with nations outside of the eurozone by 3.4% this past May, on an annual basis, the chronic recession in Europe pushed trade with the other 16-members of the eurozone down 2.3% during the same time period. Since inter-eurozone trade makes up two-thirds of German exports, the incremental benefits of exporting outside the eurozone are no longer covering the loss in trade from Europe.

????Meanwhile, new data out this week seems to confirm that Germany's export engine has stalled. The demand for new German manufactured goods fell in July to the lowest level since May 2009. That pushed the German composite purchasing manager's index down to 47.3 in July, the lowest level since June of 2009. A score below 50 in the PMI largely indicates that an economy is in contraction, so Germany could very well be experiencing no economic growth at all.

????This is concerning, given Germany's increasingly precarious fiscal situation. It turns out that while Germany does have a big economy, it doesn't generate enough tax revenue to cover its bills. Eurostat reported on Monday that Germany had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 81.6% in the first quarter of the year, which is up 0.4% from the previous quarter. While that is lower than that of its profligate neighbors, like Greece at 123% and France at 89%, it is still far higher than the 60% cap to which eurozone members are supposed to adhere. Furthermore, while Germany has been successfully cutting spending it still ran a budget deficit of 25.8 billion euros in 2011. As the economy contracts, that budget gap is projected to grow.

????But Germany's already high debt-to-GDP ratio may not be telling the whole story. In putting Germany on a negative credit watch, Moody's noted that it was concerned about the liabilities the country has taken on as a result of the crisis. Those liabilities are the billions of euros that have been supplied to the various EU bailout funds. It turns out that Germany is on the hook for an estimated 211 billion euros in cash and guarantees connected with the bailouts. If that number is added to Germany's current debt load of 2 trillion euros, the nation's debt-to-GDP ratio jumps to nearly 90%. In addition, the current debt number doesn't account for unfunded liabilities in social security, healthcare and pensions that the state is responsible in paying out. Adding that all up would tack on an additional 5 trillion euros to Germany's national debt, according to Bernd Raffelhueschen, an economics professor at Freiburg University. That would push Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio to a mind-blowing 284%.