????對于許多人來說，夏季可能意味著愜意的生活，但對今年的科技股投資者來說就不是那么回事了。由于許多公司即將公布第二季度收益報告，最后一刻的不安情緒在許多投資者和分析師心里油然而生。

????自從7月4日獨立日假日歸來后，投資者見證了納斯達克綜合指數累計4%的跌幅，與此同時，科技類股中的許多大牌跌幅更大。微軟公司（Microsoft）下跌6%，IBM和思科（Cisco）均下跌7%，而英特爾（Intel）跌幅則達到了8%。在大多數情況下，科技類股的下跌都伴隨著分析師發布的相關公司第二季度業績可能弱于此前預期的預警。

????今年余下的時間，形勢似乎也不會明顯好轉。周四早盤，IT外包巨頭印孚瑟斯（Infosys）的股價下跌12%。此前該公司稱，其業務會在2012年下半年放緩，因來自銀行和其他企業的大訂單流失。印孚瑟斯首席執行官史布萊說：“目前公司面臨的運營環境比4月份時更為嚴峻。”

????最近這一波圍繞科技股的擔憂情緒并不是由某個單一主要因素造成的，而是幾個因素共同導致的：第二季度拖累歐洲經濟的金融動蕩以及中國經濟放緩；顛覆性技術的崛起打擊了適應遲緩的大型科技公司；以及分析師們在不確定時期的偏樂觀傾向。

????規模居前的科技類公司長期以來一直依賴全球市場，但在第二季度，主要市場都無一例外地面臨挑戰。美國經濟增長出現停滯的跡象，而中國經濟也繼續降溫。但最令人擔憂的還是歐盟。歐盟的失業率已經升至11%，部分成員國更是已經再次陷入經濟衰退。

????歐盟領導人在解決債務危機方面一直行動拖沓，導致企業界的不確定性情緒揮之不去，并促使許多消費者紛紛暫停購買新產品。根據研究機構Computer Economics進行的一項調查結果，31%的受訪公司計劃在未來一年削減IT運營支出，而只有16%的受訪公司計劃提高相關支出。為了保障利潤，企業紛紛削減包括新技術開支在內的各項成本。

????另外，全球IT研究和咨詢公司蓋特納（Gartner）的一份報告顯示，全球IT支出可能會由去年的3.5萬億美元逐步增至2012年的3.6萬億美元。蓋特納指出，特定科技領域的支出增長將會領先其他領域。例如，今年云計算領域的IT支出將達到1,090億美元，高于2011年的910億美元。

????雖然這對于云計算企業是個利好消息，但對于其他科技巨頭來說并不一定是好苗頭。企業在云計算技術上投入資金是因為其較安裝和維護傳統軟件系統更加高效、經濟。但將資金投在更低成本的云系統上則意味著：投入在往往更加昂貴的自有軟件上的相關資金將會減少。包括甲骨文公司（Oracle）和IBM在內的企業都在投資云計算，即使這樣做可能意味著犧牲在傳統程序上的投資。

????在企業和消費者支出顯著的個人電腦行業，類似的顛覆也在發生。如今，人們在購買個人電腦時往往選擇購買平板電腦或亞洲企業生產的低成本個人電腦。蓋特納提供的數據顯示，總體上，第二季度個人電腦發貨量較上年同期下滑了0.1%，已經減少到8,750萬臺。對于美國制造商來說，下滑幅度要嚴重得多：惠普電腦（HP）和戴爾電腦（Dell）第二季度的個人電腦發貨量均同比下跌了12%。

????面對這樣的發貨量數據，投資者很難相信科技類股會公布強勁的收益報告。事實上，有些公司已經發出預警，告誡投資者不要過于樂觀。上周，高級微設備公司（Advanced Micro Devices）、美國應用材料公司（Applied Materials）和Informatica都發布了盈利可能不及預期的預警。金融數據和軟件提供商Factset稱，標準普爾500指數（S&P 500）成分股公司中，已經有24家公司發布了負面的第二季度收益預期（即預計收益低于當前分析師的一致預期），較5年平均值高50%。

????如果這些還不足以讓人擔憂的話，再看看下面這組數據。Factset預計，標準普爾500指數成分股中的科技類公司第二季度收益增幅將達到3.6%。雖然這比標準普爾500指數所有成分股公司3%的收益增幅要高，但完全要歸功于蘋果公司（Apple）。若不計入蘋果公司的預期收益增幅，其他科技公司的平均收益將下跌2%。

????甚至有人擔心蘋果公司的盈利。BMO Capital的一位分析師稱，平板電腦銷量對筆記本電腦銷量的侵蝕可能正在負面影響高價MacBook筆記本的銷量。其他分析師則擔心，由于兼容LTE網絡的iPhone在今年秋季上市已經幾乎板上釘釘，許多蘋果擁躉都在等待購買這款新iPhone，可能會放緩iPhone在未來幾個月的銷量。

????Summertime may be when the living is easy for many people, but not for tech investors this year. As the time draws near for many companies to report their second-quarter earnings, a last-minute sense of unease is setting in among investors and analysts.

????Since investors returned from their 4th of July holidays, the Nasdaq Composite has lost 4%, while many of the bigger names in tech have lost even more. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 6%, while IBM (IBM) and Cisco (CSCO) are off 7% and Intel (INTC) has fallen 8%. In most cases, the declines have been accompanied by analysts warning of a weaker second-quarter than they had previously expected.

????And things aren't looking much better for the rest of the year. Thursday morning, IT-outsourcing giant Infosys (INFY) fell 12% after the company warned that business would slow down in the second half of 2012, citing the loss of big contracts among banks and other companies. "The environment today for us is more challenging than what it was in April," said Infosys CEO S. D. Shitulal.

????There isn't one overriding reason for the recent round of tech jitters, but several. The financial turmoil that plagued Europe in the quarter, along with the cooling of China's economy; the rise of disruptive technologies that are hurting big tech companies that have been slow to adapt; and the tendency of analysts to be optimistic in times of uncertainty.

????The largest tech companies have long been dependent on global markets, but in the second quarter, every major market faced challenges. Economic growth showed signs of stalling in the U.S., while China's economy cooled. But the biggest concern was in the European Union, whereunemployment rose to 11% and some countries slipped back into recession.

????EU leaders have dragged their feet in solving the debt crisis, prolonging a sense of uncertainty among companies and prompting consumers to hold back on buying new gadgets. A survey by Computer Economics found that 31% of companies surveyed are planning to cut operational IT spending in the coming year, against 16% that plan to spend more. To shore up profits, companies are cutting costs, and that includes money for new technology.

????A separate report from Gartner said that global IT spending would rise incrementally to $3.6 trillion in 2012 from $3.5 trillion last year. Gartner noted that spending on some areas of tech will see more growth than others: Cloud computing, for example will receive $109 billion in IT spending this year, up from $91 billion in 2011.

????While that's good news for cloud companies, it's not necessarily good for other tech giants. Companies are spending on cloud technologies because it can be more efficient and cheaper than installing and maintaining older software systems. But money spent on lower-cost cloud systems means money not spent on proprietary software, which is often more expensive. Companies like Oracle (ORCL) and IBM are investing in cloud computing, even if it risks cannibalizing their older programs.

????A similar kind of disruption is happening in the PC industry, an area where companies and consumers spend heavily. When people are buying PCs they are buying tablets or low-cost PCs from Asian companies. Overall, PC shipments fell 0.1% in the second quarter from the same quarter in 2011, to 87.5 million, according to Gartner. For U.S. makers, the fall was much worse: HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) both shipped 12% fewer PCs in the second quarter.

????These are not the kind of numbers to encourage investors into believing tech stocks will post strong earnings. Already some of them have been signaling that investors shouldn't get too excited. In the past week, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Informatica (INFA) warned of disappointing earnings. According to Factset, 24 companies in the S&P 500 issued negative guidance for the second quarter, 50% more than the five-year average.

????And if that's not worrying, consider this. Factset estimates that tech stocks in the S&P 500 will post earnings growth of 3.6% for the quarter. While that's higher than the 3% rate for all of the S&P 500, it's all Apple (AAPL). Exclude Apple's expected earnings growth and average tech earnings will fall 2%.

????There's even concern over Apple's earnings. The cannibalization of laptops by tablets may be eating into sales of big-ticket Macbooks, an analyst at BMO Capital said. Other analysts are concerned that, with the release of a LTE-friendly iPhone all but assured this fall, many Apple loyalists are waiting to buy iPhones, slowing sales for the next several months.