????歐盟拒絕與美國合作，協調統一銀行架構問題，事實上已經否決了《沃克爾法則》。這或許是因為歐盟想對該法則進行微調，又或許是希望進行徹底的改變，推動商業銀行與投資銀行業務完全分拆。無論如何，法國銀行都會遭受打擊?；ㄆ欤–itibank）的一項分析顯示，實施《沃克爾法則》式的法規可能造成法國銀行業損失共5億歐元利潤；如果按《格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案》進行業務分拆，這些銀行將損失共15億歐元的潛在利潤。業務分拆將對法國大銀行在華爾街的地位構成深遠影響。沒了巴黎的大船，不清楚它們能否延續在紐約和倫敦的交易業務。

????眼下，法國銀行進行這類分拆并不是時候，目前它們仍持有幾十億歐元的壞賬，涵蓋了從希臘的信用卡債務到西班牙的按揭貸款等不同種類。銀行業務結構的改變將暴露資產負債表中的巨大漏洞，可能導致市場反應過激，像一群饑餓的食人魚一樣將它們撕成碎片。

????法國現在是社會黨的天下。他們已經決定提高稅收來填補法國預算缺口。但明年，光靠加稅已經不能滿足需要。在經濟衰退周期早期，強迫銀行分拆可能弊大于利。大銀行危機隱現可能會迫使法國政府出手干預，以免人心惶惶，為此法國政府可能需要付出更高的代價。未來幾個星期，評級公司非常關鍵，所有的評級公司現在都不約而同地給予法了國前景負面評級，同時密切關注事態發展。如果法國政府因赤字預算持續而延長還款時間表，法國主權債務評級遭顯著下調就將是情理之中的事，它將使法國成為歐洲金融危機的下一個主要受害國。

????譯者：早稻米

????The European Union has already rejected the Volcker rule when it refused to work with the US in harmonizing banking structures. It could be that they wanted to either tweak the rule or totally change things up and go for a complete split of commercial and investment banking. Either way, French banks will take a pummeling. Implementing a Volcker-like rule could wipe a collective 500 million euros in profits for French banks, according to an analysis by Citibank, which also said that a Glass-Stegall-like split could cost the banks 1.5 billion euros in potential profit. A split would have a profound impact on the French megabank's sizable presence on Wall Street. It is unclear if their trading operations in New York and in London can survive without the mothership back in Paris.

????This kind of split would come at a bad time for the French banks as they are still carrying billions of euros of bad loans, ranging from Greek credit card debt to Spanish mortgages. Changes to their structure could reveal massive holes in their balance sheet, which could in turn cause the market to potentially overact and chew them apart like a school of hungry piranhas.

????It is now game time for the Socialist Party. The decision has been made to raise taxes to fill the hole in their national budget. But next year, taxes won't suffice. Forcing banks to break up this early in the recessionary cycle will probably cause more trouble than it's worth. Signs of weakness at a megabank will force France to intervene to stave off a panic, which would probably cost the government more money. The next few weeks will be critical with all the credit rating agencies, which all have a negative outlook on France, watching the situation intently. If the government eases its debt shedding timeline to accommodate further empty spending, then it wouldn't be surprising to see a major downgrade in French sovereign debt, setting the country up to become the next major victim of the European financial crisis.