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印度經濟放緩卻成為跨國公司投資熱點

印度經濟放緩卻成為跨國公司投資熱點

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-07-02
為什么就在印度經濟增長目前開始放緩之際,可口可樂、宜家及其他大型公司卻紛紛選擇進軍印度呢?

????印度是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一。但奇怪的是,就在印度經濟增速目前明顯放緩之際,可口可樂和宜家本周卻在該國消費者身上豪賭數十億美元。

????在未來的幾年里,世界上最大的軟飲料生產商可口可樂及其在印度的合作伙伴將斥資50億美元,擴大銷售渠道并提高產能,以滿足印度不斷增長的市場需求。在此之前,世界上最大的家具制造商宜家(Ikea)以19億美元的投資進軍印度。該公司預計在未來15至20年內在印度開設25家門店。

????的確,這些投資承諾可能會緩解印度政府決策者目前所面臨的壓力,他們近來一直在設法提振不斷趨弱的外國投資者情緒,因為印度目前的經濟增長不再像以前那般迅猛了。在截至3月31日的財政年度里,印度國內生產總值(GDP)同比增長6.5%,這樣的經濟增速在近10年里最慢。諸如制造業、采礦業及農業等部門的表現不佳,從而使外界對印度經濟產生了新的憂慮情緒。

????此外,這兩筆投資的到來,正值印度盧比兌美元匯率已大幅下滑。因此,這使得一些在印度設有分支機構的外資企業嚴重受挫,因為他們匯回本國的美元資金縮水了,而這致使他們的盈利下降。

????但可口可樂和宜家遠遠沒有那么擔憂。從長期來看,印度的經濟規模令各大跨國公司難以忽略。其中有幾個原因:印度擁有12億人口,是世界上第二人口大國;其中產階層人數正迅速增長;即使印度經濟增速放緩至6.5%,其經濟看上去也仍然遠遠好于許多發達國家,因為歐洲部分國家正在應對目前繼續發酵著的債務危機,而美國經濟增速在過去10年里每年平均僅為1.6%左右。

????從更廣泛的角度來看,最近的這些投資證明印度擁有或許更為重要的吸引力:對公開市場改革的響應。

????宜家之所以有可能進入印度,正是由于該國去年的一項政策變化。這項新政策允許跨國零售商100%全資持有其在印度開設的企業。在此之前,單一品牌零售商只能在與印度當地公司組成的合資企業中持有51%的股份。布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)駐孟買的非常駐高級研究員尤爾吉特?帕特爾(Urjit Patel)認為,這個變化相當重要,因為它可以使印度這個世界上最后一個規模浩大的消費者市場向許多之前被拒之門外的大型跨國零售商開放,

????可口可樂則是另一個例子。這家世界上最大的軟飲料生產商在印度擁有一段跌宕起伏的歷史。可口可樂最初于1955年開始在印度銷售其產品,但在1977年,當印度政府改變監管法規,轉而要求跨國公司與當地公司建立合資公司,并交出其產品的秘密配方時,可口可樂撤離了印度。在1993年印度實施經濟自由化(其中包括改變相關法規,允許跨國公司在印度設有全資子公司)之后,可口可樂重返印度。自那以后,該公司一直都特別看好印度,而且自返回印度以來已在那里投資了大約20億美元。

????顯然,推動印度經濟增長將不僅僅是該國不斷增長的人口以及民眾不斷增加的收入。對于許多跨國公司而言,印度的官僚政府以及變化莫測的市場法規使他們在印度的投資成為了一種賭博。霍尼韋爾首席執行官戴夫?柯特(Dave Cote,中文名:高德威)在今年1月訪問《財富》雜志期間表示:“我沒有數學來支持這個觀點,但我一直覺得,印度政府的官僚問題每年使得GDP增速損失了三個百分點,但我對印度很感興趣。”

????This week, Coca-Cola (KO) and Ikea bet billions of dollars on India's consumers – curiously enough, at a time when growth across one of the world's fastest-growing economies has markedly slowed.

????Over the next several years, Coca-Cola, the world's biggest soft drink maker, and its local partners will spend $5 billion to expand distribution and add capacity to meet rising demand. This follows a move by Ikea, the world's largest furniture maker, to enter India with a $1.9 billion investment. It expects to open 25 stores there over the next 15 to 20 years.

????Indeed, the commitments will probably take some pressures off of New Delhi policymakers, who've been trying to boost faltering foreign investor sentiment, as India's economy hasn't been growing as fast as it once did. For the fiscal year ended March 31, GDP grew 6.5%, the slowest pace in almost a decade. Sectors such as manufacturing, mining and agriculture did poorly, raising new concerns about the economy.

????The investments also come as India's currency, the rupee, has fallen sharply against the U.S. dollar. Consequently, this has frustrated some foreign businesses with units in India, since the money they repatriate in dollars is worth less and that puts a dent on earnings.

????But Coke and Ikea aren't nearly as dismayed. Looking long-term, India's economy is too hard for the biggest companies to ignore. A few reasons: With 1.2 billion people, India is the world's second-most populous country; a rapidly growing middle class; and even with slower growth at 6.5%, India's economy looks far better than much of the developed world as parts of Europe struggles with an ongoing debt crisis and the U.S. economy has grown at an average of about 1.6% over the past 10 years.

????More broadly, the latest investments illustrate what's perhaps a bigger draw: a response to open-market reforms.

????Ikea's entrance into India was made possible by a policy change last year that allows some retailers to own 100% of their Indian businesses. Before, single-brand retailers were allowed to own only 51% of a partnership with an Indian company. The change is significant, since it could open India, one of the last big consumer markets of the world, to many of the biggest retailers that were previously shut out, said Urjit Patel, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings Institution based in Mumbai.

????Coke is another example. The world's largest soft drink maker has had a turbulent history in the country. It first began selling its products in India in 1955, but left in 1977 when government regulations changed and required company to have a local partner and hand over its secret ingredients. Coke returned in 1993 after India liberalized its economy, which included changing rules allowing for wholly owned subsidiaries. Since then, the company has been particularly bullish on India, having spent some $2 billion since it returned.

????Clearly what will drive India's growth won't just be its growing population and rising incomes. India's bureaucratic government and unpredictable market regulations have been a gamble for many companies. At a visit to Fortune in January, Honeywell CEO Dave Cote said: "I have no math to support this, but I have always felt that just government bureaucracy cost India three GDP points a year. And I am a fan of the country."

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