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擔心意大利的14個理由

擔心意大利的14個理由

Matthew Hedrick, Hedgeye 2012-06-26
意大利當前的債務狀況和黯淡的增長前景蘊藏著諸多風險。但意大利最最讓人擔心的還是它“大到不能倒”。

????勞動力成本效率低下——導致意大利經濟增速落后的一個主要原因是國內生產率停滯不前,正如較高的單位勞動力成本所示。工資雖然出現下降,但還沒有出現同比下降。

????工業生產正在放緩,表現落后。歐洲委員會(European Commission)最近的一份意大利評估報告指出,生產停滯是意大利采用歐元以來喪失成本競爭力的主要因素。

????出口增速放緩——積極的一面是2011年初以來,意大利的凈進口額逐漸下降。但出口增速也在放緩,因此反映到總量數據上益處有限。意大利的出口高度集中于紡織、服裝、金屬和礦物,但由于意大利公司的規模相對較小,過去十年意大利對歐盟主要貿易伙伴國的出口面臨的競爭加劇。另外,它對非歐盟國家(特別是東亞)的出口份額上升,尚未充分體現益處。[主要出口市場:德國=13.1%;法國=11.6%;西班牙=5.3%]

????新車登記量——這是我們關注的另一項指標。毫無意外,該數據也低于歐盟國家的平均水平。

????儲蓄率下降——意大利家庭的儲蓄率已從2002年年中17.8%的高點降至2011年3季度的11.6%。下圖呈現了意大利人在經濟上行期和下行期的儲蓄率變動趨勢。過去三年儲蓄率的下降反映了償債以及意大利人維持過去支出水平的需求。

????Labor Cost Inefficiencies- A major factor behind Italy's slower growth profile is stagnation in its productivity, witnessed by higher unit labor casts, while wages, despite declines, have yet to turn negative.

????Industrial Productionis slowing and underperforming. A recent European Commission paper reviewing Italy noted that stagnation in production is the key factor behind Italy's loss of cost competitiveness since the euro adoption.

????Export growth slowing– On a positive note, since early 2011 Italy has become less and less of a net importer. However, export growth has also slowed, providing less of a benefit to the top line. Italy has high specialization in textiles, clothing, metal, and minerals, but due to the relatively small size of Italian firms, Italian exports to its main EU trading partners have found increased competition over the last decade. Further, its increased share in non-EU countries (particularly Eastern Asia) has yet to reap full benefit. [Main export partners: Germany = 13.1%; France = 11.6%; Spain = 5.3%]

????New car registrations- Yet another metric we follow. Here again, no surprise, underperformance vs the EU average.

????Smashed Piggy Banks- The Italian household savings rate moved from a high of 17.8% in mid 2002 down to 11.6% as of Q3 2011. The chart shows that Italians leveraged their savings in the upturn and in the downturn. The tapping of savings in the last three years demonstrates to pay off debt and the resilience of the Italian consumer to maintain previous spending levels.

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