?

????我一直喜歡讀“偉大投資者”寫(xiě)的致投資者函和文章。在我看來(lái)，保璞集團(tuán)（Baupost）的塞思?克拉曼就屬于“偉大投資者”這一類(lèi)。他在今年一季度的致投資者函中寫(xiě)道：“我們不擔(dān)心錯(cuò)過(guò)可能的大反彈，如果這些反彈純粹是由于資金流或政府行為；參與此類(lèi)投機(jī)活動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)簡(jiǎn)直太高了。”

????在某種程度上，克拉曼不懼短線弱于大盤(pán)。在近30年的投資生涯中，他的長(zhǎng)期投資表現(xiàn)幾乎可以睥睨任何投資者。

????不過(guò)，我想克拉曼等偉大的投資者之所以能有杰出的長(zhǎng)期投資表現(xiàn)，投資流程是關(guān)鍵。我猜想在克拉曼取得輝煌業(yè)績(jī)前，甚至可能在他入行的最初幾年，他就已經(jīng)深知“所有偉大的長(zhǎng)期投資都始于計(jì)劃”這句老生常談。

????事實(shí)是偉大的投資者都有完善的投資流程。有時(shí)，投資流程告訴他們要大膽投資，有時(shí)要持幣觀望，結(jié)果是完善的資產(chǎn)配置計(jì)劃。隨著時(shí)間的推移，如果投資流程勝人一籌，回報(bào)也是出類(lèi)拔萃。

????如果我要向基金配置資產(chǎn)，我要問(wèn)基金經(jīng)理的第一個(gè)問(wèn)題是“你的投資流程是什么”，然后是“為什么這個(gè)投資流程將隨著時(shí)間推移帶來(lái)出色的投資結(jié)果”。無(wú)疑，在回顧它們的歷史表現(xiàn)后，我可以確定它們是否真的擁有一個(gè)投資流程并在投資計(jì)劃中相應(yīng)執(zhí)行。

????著名的西班牙畫(huà)家帕布羅?畢加索對(duì)于計(jì)劃是這么說(shuō)的：“我們的目標(biāo)只能通過(guò)計(jì)劃這一途徑來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。我們必須堅(jiān)信這一點(diǎn)，并采取有力行動(dòng)。沒(méi)有其他途徑可以獲得成功。”

????鑒于當(dāng)前歐洲危機(jī)深重，引用一位知名歐洲藝術(shù)家的計(jì)劃名言正是恰如其分。這不是對(duì)歐洲人發(fā)難，而是對(duì)缺乏長(zhǎng)期計(jì)劃的經(jīng)年歐債危機(jī)開(kāi)炮。更別提當(dāng)歐元這一共同貨幣創(chuàng)建時(shí)，就缺乏一個(gè)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的計(jì)劃。

????近些天，我聽(tīng)很多交易員說(shuō)，坊間的普遍看法是市場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)動(dòng)蕩，直到希臘大選、二十國(guó)集團(tuán)（G20）、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)（FOMC）和歐盟峰會(huì)（EU Summit）之后。交易員們的計(jì)劃似乎是稍安勿躁，等待決策者們定好計(jì)劃。這樣的打算可不錯(cuò)。

????I've always enjoyed reading the quarterly letters and writings of great investors. From my perspective, Baupost's Seth Klarman fits into the category of a great investor. In his first quarter letter to investors this year, he wrote: "We are comfortable missing out on potentially major rallies if they are based purely on money flows or government action; the risks of engaging in this sort of speculative activity are simply too high."

????On some level, Klarman has earned the right to underperform in the short run as his long run track record, almost 30 years, is superior to almost any investor in that time frame.

????That being said, I think what likely differentiates Klarman and many investors with superior long run track records is their process. My guess is that Klarman may have written the above quote even just a couple of years into his career before his track record was established.

????The fact is great investors have a process. Sometimes the process tells them to invest aggressively, sometimes it tells them to stay on the sidelines with large cash balances, but the outcome of the process is a plan to allocate capital. Over time, if the process is superior, the outcome will be positively differentiated returns.

????If I were allocating capital to funds, the first question I would ask any potential manager would be "What is your process?" That would be followed by "Why will this process produce superior results over time?" Undoubtedly after reviewing their historic results, I could determine whether they actually had a process and executed on their investment plan accordingly.

????The famed Spanish painter Pablo Picasso said this about having a plan: "Our goals can only be reached through the vehicle of a plan, in which we must fervently believe, and upon which we must vigorously act. There is no other route to success."

????Quoting a famed European artist about planning is somewhat appropriate given the current debacle in Europe. Now this isn't a shot at Europeans but rather a shot at the lack of an actual long term plan emerging to solve Europe's long run debt crisis. Not to mention, the lack of a long term plan when the common currency was established.

????I've heard from a number of traders in the last couple of days and the general consensus in that community seems to be that the market will remain choppy until after the Greek elections, the G20, the FOMC, and the EU Summit. Not to put words in their mouths, but the plan in the trading community seems to be to not do much until the central planners are done planning. I like that plan.