歐元區改革:德國勝券在握
????坐在駕駛座上的是德國總理安吉拉?默克爾。 ????歐洲越早認識到德國掌握著大部分(如果不是全部)終結歐元區債務危機的牌,就能越早找到一個持久的解決方案。擁有經濟正增長、低失業率和極低利率的德國并不急于實施經濟較弱的鄰國提議的改革措施,這些措施會對德國的廉價信貸和擴大出口能力構成負面影響。 ????能讓這個歐盟最大成員國確信實施改革(比如發行歐元債券)的唯一辦法是看到改革帶來的好處,比如掌控整個歐元區的財政政策。歐元區其他成員國,如法國,對于把更多經濟權力交給布魯塞爾,并最終交給法蘭克福持謹慎態度。但是,像把歐元區現有債務匯集起來、阻止危機蔓延的解決方案是一個良好的開端,它們需要讓德國看到一些好處并參與進來。 ????從這場危機之初,德國總理安吉拉?默克爾就一直被批評在解決歐元區危機問題上不給力。“德國在哪兒?”、“默克爾未能擔起領導角色”這樣的標題充斥著大西洋兩岸報紙的版面。 ????但與歐元區其他國家的領導人不同,從兩年多前這場危機爆發以來,默克爾一直在位。這部分是由于德國的選舉規定,但德國經濟也是原因——雖然現在有點搖擺不定,但自2010年危機爆發以來,德國經濟實際上一直在改善。2010年德國GDP增長3.5%,遠超鄰國。2011年德國經濟增長2.7%,鄰國大多陷入衰退。雖然經濟學家原本預計今年一季度可能表現糟糕,但德國經濟實際增長0.5%,比預測值高5倍。 ????鑒于德國主要貿易伙伴國很多是陷入困頓的歐元區成員國,這或許有些讓人困惑不解,但德國看起來極大地受益于歐元走軟,這增強了德國向非歐元區國家出口的競爭力。與歐元區其他國家不同,德國是一個出口大國,制造全球熱銷的高品質產品。諷刺的是,歐元區危機反而增強了德國的出口實力,繼續成為全球第二大出口經濟體,僅次于中國。 ????與此同時,德國也受益于投資者對德國國債的需求增長。德國的債務/GDP比率約為80%,高于陷入困境的西班牙(68%),但德國國債的收益率為零,而西班牙的國債收益率接近7%。本月由于需求旺盛,某些時候德國國債的收益率甚至變成了負值。購買德國國債的投資者,從德國銀行到美國養老基金不一而足。但最近,增長最快的是來自西班牙和希臘的存款人,他們瘋狂地取出畢生積蓄買入德國國債,因為他們擔心本國政府可能決定脫離歐元區,貨幣貶值可能將他們的儲蓄毀于一旦。 |
????In the driver's seat: German Chancellor Angela Merkel ????The faster Europe realizes that Germany holds most, if not all, of the cards when it comes to ending the eurozone debt crisis, the faster a lasting solution can be found. With positive economic growth, low unemployment and fantastically low interest rates, Germany is simply in no rush to implement reforms that have been proposed by its economically weaker neighbors, as they would negatively impact Germany's ability to borrow cheaply and expand exports. ????The only way the EU's biggest member can be convinced to take on reforms, like issuing eurobonds, would be if it were granted incentives, such as control over the fiscal policy of the eurozone. Other members of the eurozone, namely France, have been wary about handing more of their economic power over to Brussels and ultimately to Frankfurt. But while solutions like the pooling of eurozone's existing debt is a good first step to diffusing the crisis, they still require incentives for Germany to get on board. ????Since the start of the crisis, Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel has been accused of dragging her feet when it comes to ending the eurozone crisis. Headlines like, "Where is Germany?" or "Merkel's failure to lead," have graced newspapers on both sides of the Atlantic. ????But unlike nearly every other eurozone leader, Merkel hasn't been thrown out of power since the crisis began more than two year ago. While that is due in part to election rules in Germany, it is also due to Germany's economy, which, while a little wobbly now, has actually improved since the crisis began in 2010. That year, Germany's GDP grew at 3.5% - much faster than its neighbors. In 2011, it grew at 2.7% at the same time most of its neighbors slipped into recession. And while economists had predicted a terrible first quarter for Germany this year, its economy actually grew five times more than expected, at 0.5%. ????That might seem puzzling given that many of Germany's main trading partners are crippled eurozone members, but the country seems to have benefitted greatly from the weakening of the euro, since it has increased the competitiveness of its exports in non-eurozone countries. Unlike the rest of the eurozone, Germany is an exporting powerhouse, making high-quality goods that are in demand across the world. The eurozone crisis has ironically only increased its export strength, continuing to make it the world's second-largest export economy in the world, behind China. ????At the same time, Germany has also benefitted from an increase in investor demand for its debt. Germany has a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 80%, which is higher than troubled Spain at 68%, yet its debt is trading at zero, while Spain's debt is trading near 7%. Demand for German debt was so great this month that at some points it actually traded at a negative yield. Investors buying this debt range from German banks to U.S. pension funds. But the big surge in buying lately has come from Spanish and Greek depositors who are frantically withdrawing their life savings and putting them in German bonds on fear that their respective governments will leave the eurozone and destroy their savings through devaluation. |