歐元區(qū)選民規(guī)避風險

????歐元區(qū)有很多富有的選民年歲漸大，不喜風險。因此，如果歐元崩潰當前，選民們或許寧可選擇承受緊縮政策的痛苦，也不愿承擔脫離歐元區(qū)可能帶來的不確定性。

????“這已經(jīng)在2009年以來的歐洲選舉中得到驗證”，彼得森國際經(jīng)濟研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的研究員雅各布?科克加德表示。

????當然，希臘5月6日沒有結(jié)果的大選是個例外，但這只是因為希臘正在經(jīng)歷獨有的政治合法性危機。左翼聯(lián)盟（Syriza）拒絕履行與幾十億歐元國際援助掛鉤的縮減預算協(xié)議，該黨派在5月大選中獲得相當支持，顯示選民們已心生猶豫，不再像過去那樣不假思索地將選票投給傳統(tǒng)政黨。

????不過，科克加德表示，歐元區(qū)其他國家不存在這樣的問題（意大利也沒有這樣的問題）。而且，希臘選民雖然現(xiàn)在依然舉棋不定，但到6月17日大選時，他們或許會最終意識到他們需要接受緊縮政策。

????索羅斯在意大利演講時指出：“我預計希臘公眾可能很害怕被歐盟（European Union）開除，因此在大選中可能會讓一個愿意遵守現(xiàn)有協(xié)議的政黨聯(lián)盟獲得微弱多數(shù)。”他說：“但沒有政府能夠達到這些要求，因此希臘危機可能會在今秋達到頂峰。屆時，德國經(jīng)濟也將開始走弱，到時候默克爾會發(fā)現(xiàn)更難說服德國公眾承擔起更多的歐洲責任。”

歐元是創(chuàng)新，需要不斷完善

????或許，如果投資者能夠接受這樣一個現(xiàn)實，即歐盟是一項存在根本性缺陷的試驗，需要花很多年的時間來完善，他們就不會那么緊張不安。起初，這一貨幣聯(lián)盟幫助德國增強了出口競爭力，其他國家則獲得了廉價信貸。不消說，當初推動歐元大獲成功的因素也正是現(xiàn)在讓其陷入麻煩的根源。

????但科克加德認為，歐元區(qū)的“機構(gòu)創(chuàng)新“歷史或許能讓歐元躲過此劫。雖然創(chuàng)立了貨幣聯(lián)盟，問題是它缺乏一個與之相伴的政治聯(lián)盟。大多數(shù)政治科學家都認為歐元區(qū)根本就不該存在，但歐元區(qū)還是建立并存在了這么多年，這都是有賴于其“創(chuàng)新機構(gòu)”的能力。未來它還將克服在旁人看來難以逾越的障礙。

歐洲央行可以處理好這場危機

????在沉重的債務壓力下，很多人呼吁歐洲央行（European Central Bank）擔起“最后貸款人”的角色。確實，如果賦予歐洲央行隨意印鈔的權(quán)力，就能緩解流通性壓力，確保永遠都有錢支付給國債持有人。

Euro area voters are risk averse

????Given that so many euro zone voters are rich and aging, they are highly risk averse. So when a euro crash is potentially imminent, voters will likely agree to the pains of austerity rather than risk the uncertainties of breaking away from the euro zone.

????"This has been proven in all elections in Europe since 2009," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

????To be sure, Greece's inconclusive May 6 election is an exception, but that's only because it is suffering from a unique political legitimacy crisis. The Syriza parties that favor renouncing budget-cutting agreements tied to billions of euros in international aid garnered modest support, making it difficult for voters to support the traditional parties as a safe pair of hands.

????Nevertheless, Kirkegaard says, no other euro zone member (not even Italy) has such problems. And while Greek voters seem uncertain today, they might eventually realize they need to agree to the austerity measures by its June 17 election.

????In his speech in Italy, Soros added: "I expect that the Greek public will be sufficiently frightened by the prospect of expulsion from the European Union that it will give a narrow majority of seats to a coalition that is ready to abide by the current agreement," he said. "But no government can meet the conditions so that the Greek crisis is liable to come to a climax in the fall. By that time the German economy will also be weakening so that Chancellor Merkel will find it even more difficult than today to persuade the German public to accept any additional European responsibilities."

The euro is innovative and a work in progress

????Perhaps investors would be less jittery if they accepted that the European Union is a fundamentally flawed experiment that could take many more years to get right. In the beginning, the monetary union helped Germany boost its competitiveness in exports, while other members took advantage of cheap credit. Needless to say, what drove the euro's successes is what has landed it in trouble today.

????But what will probably drive the euro's survival is its history of "institutional innovation," Kirkegaard says. Though a monetary union was created, the problem is that it lacks an accompanying political union. Most political scientists argue the euro area should not exist at all, but it does because it has the capacity to "innovate new institutions." In the coming years, it could overcome problems that others deem insurmountable.

The European Central Bank can handle the crisis

????Amid crippling debt, many have called on the European Central Bank to act as a "lender of last resort." Indeed, giving the ECB a license to print as much money as it pleases would ease a liquidity crunch and guarantee that cash would always be available to pay out bondholders of government debt.