????目前歐元的狀況看來是每況愈下。隨著西班牙銀行危機加劇，6月17日希臘二次大選在即（這次大選可能直接影響到未來希臘是繼續留在歐元區還是自立門戶），歐元解體的可能性日增。

????懷疑論者拋出的觀點不容忽視：曾成功預測此輪信貸危機的經濟學家魯里埃爾?羅比尼宣稱，歐元區將在今年某個時候崩潰，希臘和葡萄牙將脫離歐元區?！逗谔禊Z效應》（The Black Swan）一書作者納西姆?塔勒比則直言，歐元走到盡頭“沒什么大不了的”。

????其他很多華爾街人士也上調了對歐元區解體的預測概率。上個月，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的喬納森?加納告訴彭博社（Bloomberg）稱，該公司已將歐元區解體概率從25%調高到了35%，解體速度也將加快至12-18個月，短于先前預測的3-5年?！度A爾街日報》援引公共電視臺德國電視二臺（ZDF）上月末發布的民意調查結果稱，在普遍被視為歐元救世主的德國，近半數人口認為歐元對德國的負面影響多于正面影響，高于2月份的43%。

????雖然關于歐元區解體的可能性說法林林總總，但歐元保持不倒的可能性也不是沒有。下面是四大理由。

解體過于痛苦（即便對德國也是一樣）

????德國是歐元區里唯一一個有足夠經濟能力，可以維持歐元不倒的國家。但過去三年，德國總理安吉拉?默克爾所做的只是讓這些債務如山的國家不致于破產而已，為此還要求它們大幅縮減支出——批評人士認為，這樣的策略事實上導致危機升級（而非緩解）。

????不難理解為何德國人不像外圍國家那樣將歐元區危機視為一大威脅。德國經濟正在蓬勃發展。雖然歐債危機已近三年，但目前德國失業率處于20年來的最低水平，而且還在繼續下降。但正如億萬富翁投資者喬治?索羅斯在意大利的一次長篇演講中所指，德國對歐元區的需要不亞于歐元區對德國的需要——如果不是更多的話。

????歐元區使德國的出口產品能保持低價和競爭力，防止歐元區其他國家出現債務違約。這些債務的持有人很多都是德國的金融機構。因此，如果船沉了，船上所有人包括德國在內都會掉進水里。

????“歐元區可能不會解體，因為這不僅會重重打擊外圍國家，也會極大地沖擊德國?！彼髁_斯表示。

????The state of the euro looks bleaker by the day. Amid a deepening banking crisis in Spain and ahead of a pivotal June 17 Greek election that could make or break the nation's ties with the euro zone, the idea of a euro break up has increasingly become a possibility.

????The usual suspects have weighed in: Economist Nouriel Roubini, credited for having foreseen the credit crunch, has said the euro zone would collapse sometime this year, with the departure of Greece and Portugal. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, has boldly said the end of the common currency "is not a big deal."

????And many others on Wall Street have raised chances of a breakup. Last month, Morgan Stanley's Jonathan Garner told Bloomberg the firm raised its likelihood to 35% from 25%, with the pace of a breakup accelerating over 12 to 18 months as opposed to the previously estimated three to five years. And now half of the population of Germany, which is widely viewed as the euro's savior, believe the common currency has done more bad than good for Germany, up from 43% in February, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing a poll released late last month by public broadcaster ZDF.

????Despite talk of a euro breakup, the euro will likely survive. Here are four reasons why.

It's too painful to breakup (even for Germany)

????Germany is the only euro-zone nation with enough economic pull to keep the euro together. But for the past three years, Chancellor Angela Merkel has done only the minimum needed to keep debt-troubled nations afloat while demanding huge spending cuts in return – a strategy critics say has irritated the crisis rather than ease it.

????It's easy to see why Germans don't see the euro zone crisis as big a threat as the peripheral countries do. Its economy is actually thriving. Even as Europe approaches the three-year mark of its debt crisis, German unemployment is at its lowest in 20 years and falling. However, Germany needs the euro zone as much (if not more) than the union needs Germany, as billionaire investor George Soros highlighted over the weekend during a lengthy speech in Italy.

????The euro zone keeps Germany's exports cheap and therefore competitive. What's more, it keeps other euro nations from defaulting on their debts. And much of those debts are owed to German financial institutions. So if the ship sinks, all on board, including Germany, will sink with it.

????"The likelihood is that the euro will survive because a breakup would be devastating not only for the periphery but also for Germany," Soros said.