????ETF市場(chǎng)中也潛藏著其他邪惡的交易員。最近有一筆8億美元的ETF交易：一家未表明身份的機(jī)構(gòu)贖回了2,000萬(wàn)份SPDR巴克萊資本高收益?zhèn)鵈TF（SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF）。據(jù)ETF Trends稱，這位投資者沒(méi)有選擇變現(xiàn)，而是拿債券，“以貨代款贖回”——由此該投資者繞過(guò)了公開市場(chǎng)，避開了流動(dòng)性瓶頸以及大訂單執(zhí)行時(shí)不可避免地出現(xiàn)中小交易員搭便車賺些小錢的威脅。一位巴克萊分析師稱，“這一做法進(jìn)一步印證了現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性依然嚴(yán)峻的事實(shí)，一些不那么傳統(tǒng)的獲取現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)性的方式已變得更有吸引力。”ETF成為新的第三市場(chǎng)。

????我們可以想到有多種方式，可以將這一交易用作操縱市場(chǎng)的工具。下單機(jī)構(gòu)可以利用這筆交易推高自有頭寸的價(jià)格，為流動(dòng)性較差的頭寸創(chuàng)造一些流動(dòng)性，或者僅僅是通過(guò)賣空獲取小額利潤(rùn)。

????由于摩根大通提議設(shè)立的ETF可能吸納倫敦金屬交易所約30%的銅——再加上中國(guó)數(shù)量不明的持有量——銅已經(jīng)變成了錢，作為人們交易中所接受票據(jù)的抵押實(shí)物。美國(guó)人不是擔(dān)心中國(guó)控制了太多美國(guó)國(guó)債嗎？那么，太多的全球自然資源呢？太多的世界可耕地（中國(guó)在巴西和非洲各地已進(jìn)行了眾多農(nóng)業(yè)投資）？我們應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)钟蚪?jīng)濟(jì)入侵，還是繼續(xù)賤賣資產(chǎn)，把美國(guó)一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)賣掉？

????此案的政治影響值得關(guān)注。SEC聯(lián)同CFTC對(duì)ETF做出的裁定，將改變整個(gè)ETF行業(yè)——當(dāng)然，這也是個(gè)燙手山芋。ETF市場(chǎng)擁有超過(guò)1,000種投資工具，涉及資產(chǎn)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)1萬(wàn)億美元，而且發(fā)行人都是金融業(yè)內(nèi)赫赫有名的公司，包括花旗（Citigroup）、太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）、瑞銀（UBS）、摩根大通、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）和高盛（Goldman Sachs）。如果SEC做出不利裁定，當(dāng)初監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)批準(zhǔn)這些基金銷售的行為是否正當(dāng)就會(huì)引發(fā)爭(zhēng)議，這可能是朝著政府正式承認(rèn)“推動(dòng)大宗市場(chǎng)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的是投機(jī)，而不是供需”邁出的第一步。沒(méi)人指望一個(gè)級(jí)別不高的政府機(jī)構(gòu)能挑戰(zhàn)如此實(shí)力強(qiáng)大的行業(yè)。

????在這個(gè)大選年，現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)奧巴馬愿意放手一試嗎？既要敲打華爾街，又想獲得華爾街的支持，辦得到嗎？

????譯者：早稻米

????Other sinister players lurk in the ETF markets. There was the recent $800 million ETF trade as an unidentified institution redeemed 20 million shares of SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF. Rather than cash out of the instrument, according to ETF Trends, the investor took the bonds, a "customized in-kind redemption" where the investor bypassed the open market, protecting against liquidity bottlenecks and the ever-present threat of smaller traders looking to pick off small profits while working the large execution. Said one Barclays analyst, "the maneuver adds to the already strong evidence that cash market liquidity remains challenged, as less traditional avenues for accessing cash liquidity have become more attractive." ETFs, the new Third Market.

????We can think of multiple ways in which this trade could have been used to manipulate the markets. The institution placing the ETF order could have used the trade to mark up prices in its own holdings, to create liquidity for its own illiquid positions, or simply to skim small profits on a short sale.

????With the potential for a drain of 30% of the LME's copper for the proposed ETF – plus China's unknown holdings – copper has become money, a physical good held as inaccessible collateral for bits of paper that people accept in trade. Is America worried that China controls too much of our Treasury debt? How about too much of the world's natural resources? How about too much of the world's arable land, with massive farming ventures already established in Brazil and across Africa? Will we push back against global economic encroachment, or will we continue the fire sale as America sells itself off piece by piece?

????The political fallout from this case is worth watching. A joint SEC-CFTC decision against the ETF would change the entire ETF industry – obviously a hot potato. The ETF market has over a thousand vehicles with well over a trillion dollars in assets, and issued by the biggest names in finance, including Citigroup (C), PIMCO, UBS (UBS), JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley (MS), and Goldman Sachs (GS). An adverse SEC decision would call into question the regulatory justification for marketing these funds and could be a first step towards an official government position that speculation, not supply and demand, drives price volatility in the commodity markets. One would not expect a lowly government agency to challenge such a powerful sector.

????In an election year, is President Obama willing to bet he can eat Wall Street's cake and still have it?