????銅價是全球經濟的晴雨表，它的走向反映了全球工業冷暖。當中國像打了興奮劑一樣處于飛速增長階段時，銅就是體壯如牛的宇宙先生。中國咳嗽連連，銅就顯露出肺炎的征兆。看到銅價波動和全球性機會，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）計劃推出由實物銅擔保的一支ETF。

????美國用銅大戶Southwire和金屬交易對沖基金Red Kite已向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）投訴稱，這支基金可能“通過吸納倫敦金屬交易所（London Metal Exchange）三分之一的庫存，推升銅價、壓縮供應。”他們表示，這對市場的影響堪比住友（Sumimoto）銅交易丑聞。當年，住友的銅交易員濱中泰男（人送綽號“銅先生”）吞下了全球5%的實物銅，人為保持高銅價，使得住友銀行（Sumimoto Bank）能獲利減持，并對客戶的銅交易收取高額傭金。

????投訴稱，摩根大通擬建的ETF將“人為提高整體銅價水平”，“對美國和全球經濟造成巨大破壞”。監管機構文件顯示，這只ETF可持有多達61,000公噸實物銅。

????此案或許不會僅限于SEC層面——美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）可能也想對銅交易進行監管，哪怕只是作為其要求提高預算的一個借口。取決于SEC的裁定和用詞，藉此政府或正式表態“投機造成價格波動”。有一點是確定無疑的：ETF需求并非常規的經濟需求，而且與營銷材料和監管機構接受的定義相反，ETF交易常常造成所依托投資工具的人為失衡。

????ETF根據客戶指令進行單位創建或贖回，交易員完全對價格不敏感。一筆購買銅ETF的大單可能造成交易員沖進交易大廳，買下所有能買到的實物銅。這種舉動會攪動市場嗎？住友的一名交易員僅控制全球5%的銅就足以擾亂十年的市場價格。上述投訴稱，摩根大通的新ETF可能累積倫敦金屬交易所持30%的銅。它將造成該ETF在美國國內（凈進口國）買入銅，打亂市場供應。

????恰巧，《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）最近也注意到了采礦設備制造商Joy Global在業績公告中預測銅價上漲，因為“當前庫存有很大一部分在中國被用于融資抵押”。看來，世界上有不少銅“作為當地交易員和銀行的復雜融資交易的一部分，沒有進入市場，而是留在了中國的倉庫里”。

????The price of copper is a global bellwether, signaling industrial health wherever it trades. When China was in its steroid-induced growth phase, copper was Mr. Universe. Then China coughed and copper caught the mother of all pneumonias. Seeing opportunity in volatility and global range, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) plans to launch an ETF backed by physical copper.

????Southwire, one of the largest copper consumers in the U.S., and metals trader Red Kite have filed a complaint with the SEC, claiming the fund will "inflate prices and squeeze supply by removing as much as a third of the London Metal Exchange's copper stocks." They say the effect on the markets will be comparable to the Sumimoto scandal when metals trader Yasuo Hamanaka (a/k/a "Mr. Copper") sucked up 5% of the world's physical copper and maintained artificially high price levels, enabling Sumimoto Bank to sell its positions profitably while also charging high commissions on customer copper trades.

????The complaint says the proposed ETF will "grossly and artificially inflate prices" and "wreak havoc on the US and global economy." Regulatory filings indicate the ETF could hold as much as 61,000 metric tons of physical copper.

????This may not remain an SEC case – the CFTC may want to oversee copper too, if only as an excuse to ask for a budget increase. Depending on how the Commission rules, and on the language they use, this could point to a formal government determination that speculation causes price volatility. One thing is certain: ETF demand is not normal economic demand and, contrary to the marketing materials and the definition accepted by the regulators, ETF trading often creates artificial imbalances in the underlying instruments.

????ETF units are created or liquidated to meet orders, making traders completely price-insensitive. A large order to buy a copper ETF causes a trader to dash out onto the floor and buy all the physical copper he can. Can this disrupt the markets? A Sumimoto trader's control of just 5% of the world's copper was enough to disrupt pricing in the marketplace for ten years. The complaint calculates the new ETF could stockpile as much as 30% of the copper held on the London Metals Exchange. This would cause the ETF to buy copper within the U.S. – a net importer – disrupting the flow of supply.

????Coincidentally, the Wall Street Journal recently noted an earnings release from mining equipment maker Joy Global (JOY), predicting higher prices for copper because "a substantial portion of the current inventory has been pledged as collateral for financing in China." It appears much of the world's copper is "off-market in Chinese warehouses as part of complex financing deals among local traders and banks."