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“新歐盟”是歐洲最佳的修復方式

“新歐盟”是歐洲最佳的修復方式

Cyrus Sanati 2012-06-04
按下歐洲“重啟”鍵的的時候到了——如果歐盟成員希望要保住共同貨幣,就得放棄各自的國家身份,接受一個歐洲身份。

????人們越來越擔心歐債危機可能已讓歐元染上了不治之癥,不僅會摧垮這一共同貨幣,也會導致歐盟(European Union)的全面坍塌。但是,即便出現這樣的情況,導致歐洲承受巨大的痛苦,它也可能正是醫生開具的、治愈歐洲當前病癥并使它免受未來危機沖擊的苦口良藥。

????歐盟的政治框架正在阻礙歐洲大陸采取必要的步驟來化解這場經濟危機,這一點已變得日益清晰。按下重啟這個按鈕,歐洲可以從它過去的錯誤中汲取教訓,最終創立一個更加穩定、融合的聯盟。

????主權債務危機如黑云壓頂般籠罩在歐洲身上已有近兩年半了。起初只是希臘發行新債券遇到了點問題,慢慢蔓延到了愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利。希臘至今仍是這場危機的中心,為了信守對歐盟的承諾,希臘付出了高昂的代價。自危機以來,希臘經濟已經萎縮了近20%。受歐元高估值影響,希臘的出口和旅游依然缺乏競爭力,不斷萎縮的經濟根本難以負擔龐大的公共和個人債務。

????合乎邏輯的結論或許是希臘退出歐元區,所有債務全部違約,沒錯吧?當然,在“希退”(Grexit,即“希臘退出歐元區”的媒體新詞)期間,希臘會出現數年的經濟動蕩,但最終希臘將重新站穩腳跟。借助低估值貨幣,希臘將再次能夠同鄰國土耳其、突尼斯爭奪游客,并將食品和其他粗加工產品出口到歐洲以外的地區。

????但是,德國、法國等歐元區主要成員國全都表示,它們希望希臘留在歐元區內。正在努力幫助希臘渡過財政難關的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)也贊成讓希臘留在歐元區內。甚至連希臘的極左翼黨派——左翼聯盟(Syriza)也支持希臘保留在歐盟和歐洲貨幣聯盟(EMU)的成員地位,該政黨可能會在下個月的議會選舉中掌權,組建聯合政府。而且,最重要的是,盡管希臘人民已經承受了所有這些困難,他們仍傾向于讓希臘留在歐元區和歐盟之內。

????鑒于各方普遍支持將希臘留在歐元區內,人們或許會想,應該早就有切實可行的解決方案在很久以前就將這場危機化于無形了吧。但這場危機還是那樣危險、那樣具有破壞力,一如既往。因為這不只是希臘和它的小國經濟,它關系到歐盟作為一個有效政治聯盟的生存能力。

????There is growing fear that the European debt crisis may have given the euro an incurable disease that could not only bring down the common currency, but also lead to the total collapse of the European Union. Yet while Europe would certainly experience considerable pain if such a scenario were to occur, it may be just what the doctor ordered to solve Europe's current ills and inoculate it from future crises.

????It is becoming increasingly clear that the political framework of the EU is preventing the continent from taking the necessary steps for it to solve this economic crisis. By pressing the reset button, Europe can learn from its past mistakes and could eventually create a far more stable and integrated union.

????It has been nearly two-and-a-half years since the sovereign debt crisis moved over Europe like a heavy dark cloud. What had started out as simply a problem with Greece's ability to issue new debt slowly spread to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Greece continues to be ground zero for the crisis where it has paid a high price for remaining loyal to the EU. Since the crisis began, the country has seen its economy contract by nearly 20%. The euro's strong value continues to make the country's exports and its tourism business uncompetitive while its public and personal debt load continues to be too big for its shrinking economy to ever handle.

????The logical conclusion would be for Greece to simply leave the eurozone and default on all its debts, right? Sure, there would be a few years of intense economic chaos in the country during Grexit (a name the media has so cleverly ascribed to a Greek exit from the euro), but Greece will eventually get back on its feet. With a weaker currency, Greece would once again be able to compete for tourists with neighboring Turkey and Tunisia and also be able to export food stuffs and other unfinished goods to places outside the EU.

????Yet all major countries in the eurozone, including Germany and France, say they want Greece to stay in. The International Monetary Fund, which is helping the Greeks sort through its finances, is also in favor of Greece remaining in the euro. Even the far left Syriza party in Greece, which could take power in a coalition government in next month's parliamentary elections, supports Greece's membership in both the EU and the EMU. And most importantly, the Greek people, despite all the hardship they have endured, are still in favor of Greece staying in both the euro and the EU.

????Given the widespread support for Greece remaining in the euro, one would think that a viable solution would have been found by now that would have put this crisis to bed ages ago. But the crisis continues to be as dangerous and disruptive as ever. That's because this is not about Greece and its tiny economy – it never has been. This is about the viability of the European Union as an effective political unit.

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