歐債危機(jī)解藥:選通脹,棄緊縮
????如果德國(guó)公眾不支持免除債務(wù),就需要另尋辦法。最顯而易見(jiàn)的就是印鈔,通過(guò)通脹來(lái)化解部分壞賬。今年早些時(shí)候,歐洲央行(European Central Bank)為陷入困境的眾多歐洲銀行提供了1萬(wàn)億歐元的低息貸款,避免了一場(chǎng)迫在眉睫的危機(jī)。如今,歐洲央行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧?德拉吉(我心中的2012年度人物人選)需要再度打開(kāi)資金龍頭來(lái)滅火(確保即使希臘退出歐元區(qū),也不會(huì)殃及整個(gè)歐元區(qū)),從而應(yīng)對(duì)更大范圍的債務(wù)問(wèn)題。他可以效法美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)購(gòu)買公債;可以恢復(fù)央行對(duì)商業(yè)銀行的低息貸款計(jì)劃,作為間接的寬松貨幣政策;也可以為歐洲救助基金提供貸款,為進(jìn)一步的債務(wù)重組提供資金(要做到這一點(diǎn),救助基金必須要獲得銀行牌照。) ????這些政策如果得以貫徹,最終將導(dǎo)致歐元貶值、通脹上升,但這些都是有益的。歷史證明,通脹(而不是緊縮)才是應(yīng)對(duì)如山債務(wù)的最好辦法。 ????譯者:早稻米 |
????If the German public won't countenance forgiving debtors, another solution will have to be found. The obvious one is printing money and inflating away some of the bad debt. In extending a trillion euros of cheap loans to troubled European banks earlier this year, the European Central Bank averted an immediate crisis. Now Mario Draghi, the ECB president and my pick for 2012's Person of the Year, needs to turn the money hose back on to douse the fire that will ensue if Greece crashes out of the euro and to tackle the broader debt problem. He could mimic the Fed and buy government bonds. He could resume his bank-lending program, which is an indirect form of quantitative easing. And he could issue loans to the EU bailout funds, which would use them to finance further debt restructurings. (For that to happen, the bailout funds would have to be granted a banking license.) ????Such policies, if they were adhered to, would eventually lead to a fall in the euro and a rise in inflation, which would be all to the good. History demonstrates that inflation, rather than austerity, is the best way to deal with a debt mountain. |