????上周，Facebook的投資者們憤怒不已，該公司的承銷商也極為尷尬，而批評者們則幸災樂禍，我不禁被這樣一個問題所困擾：假如說這么多投資者都不看好Facebook 的首次公開募股，認為估價過高，他們為何仍然十分看好商務社交網站LinkedIn？

????同Facebook 一樣，LinkedIn是一家社交媒體先鋒，打造了穩定增長且盈利的業務。通過建立一個社區，讓人們之間定期互動，兩家公司成為了社交網站中的翹楚。Facebook與LinkedIn都利用自身用戶的個人資料賺錢。兩家公司都是作為技術界最熱門新領域的代表進軍股票市場。

????兩家公司都選擇在5月中旬上市：Facebook是2012年，正值希臘債務危機和歐元區危機，投資者信心普遍備受打擊之際；而LinkedIn則是2011年，當時希臘及歐元區問題也正如火如荼，市場信心同樣不足。不過Facebook目前股價相比其發行價已下跌16%，而LinkedIn當前股價比發行價足足上漲了130%。

????當然，LinkedIn在IPO后也飽受挫折。LinkedIn在上市首日，股價便上漲超過100%，達到122.70美元，但僅一月之后，其股價迅速下挫，最低探至60.14美元。本月初，LinkedIn股價又重新回到120.63美元。換句話說，Facebook投資者們也許能從中看到自己股票一年之后咸魚翻身的情形。但話說回來，這也并非板上釘釘之事。Facebook認股權證的投資者們正雙倍買入看跌期權，很多人都下注該公司股票到12月將跌破每股22美元。

????這種看跌情緒也可以理解，鑒于Facebook發行價定為每股38美元，即公司估值相當于其年營收的26倍，相當于其年凈利潤額的100倍以上（目前這兩個比例已分別下降至21倍和74倍）。不過LinkedIn目前市值相當于其營收的17倍，與其近期凈利潤相比，比例則高達700倍之多。Facebook目前股價較其上周五（5月18日）的發行價已大幅下跌24%，而同期LinkedIn股價僅下滑1%。

????Facebook股價下滑的主要原因是自己在首次公開發行上犯了愚蠢錯誤——向熱門投資者們通告了較疲弱的增長預期，而這些數據來自Facebook自己和為了挽回顏面的證券分析師們，然后內部人士又宣布待售股票數量增多，同時提高發行價格。至于華爾街為什么在Facebook首次公開發行前對其股票給出“賣出”評級的，目前還不得而知。

????上周五，在開盤后最初幾個小時，LinkedIn股價并未大幅波動。不過，隨著剛剛上市的Facebook股票上漲無力之勢愈加明顯，LinkedIn股價也開始聞風下跌。LinkedIn在收盤時跌幅達到了6%，而Facebook股價較其發行價幾乎原地踏步。其它互聯網公司股票也受到Facebook拖累：社交游戲公司Zynga下跌了14%，團購網站Groupon和在線音樂服務商Pandora均下跌7%。從本周四的收盤情況看，自Facebook上市交易以來，LinkedIn的股價下跌了約1%，同時Pandora和Groupon的股價也下跌了1%左右。

????這種情況或許表明，投資者們開始意識到，Facebook不會波及其它近期IPO的互聯網公司——除了Zynga，因為其營收嚴重依賴于Facebook。但這并不能解釋為什么這些人會重新轉向LinkedIn，一個市盈率要比Facebook高出許多的社交網站。

????原因可能在于投資者們注意到了其它因素：其中之一是LinkedIn的未來增長率要高于Facebook，甚至在Facebook非正式地公布其較低的營收指導前，LinkedIn仍要超出一截。在截止3月21日的上個季度，Facebook營收為10.6億美元，增長45%。LinkedIn的營收增長率是Facebook兩倍以上，達到101%，數額為1.88億美元。

????Amid the anger this week of Facebook investors, the embarrassment of the company's underwriters and the schadenfreude of its detractors, a question has been bugging me: If so many investors are skeptical of Facebook's (FB) overvalued IPO, then why are they still so positive on LinkedIn (LNKD)?

????Like Facebook, LinkedIn is a social-media pioneer that has built up a steadily growing and profitable business. Both have achieved what few social networks have by creating a community of people who regularly interact with each other. Both exploit the personal data of their users to make money. Both entered the stock market as proxies for one of the hottest new areas in technology.

????And both went public in mid-May: Facebook in 2012, while concerns about Greece and the EU were weighting down broader markets; and LinkedIn in 2011, when concerns about Greece and the EU were weighting down broader markets. But Facebook is trading around 16% below its offering price, while LinkedIn has gained 130% from its offering price.

????Of course, LinkedIn also sagged after its initial debut. After more than doubling on its first day to $122.70, the stock had drifted down as far as $60.14 a month later. Earlier this month, LinkedIn had rallied back to $120.63. On the one hand, that may give hope to Facebook investors for a similar rebound over the next year. On the other, it may not. Investors in Facebook warrants are buying twice as many puts as calls, with many betting the stock will be below $22 a share by December.

????Such bearishness is understandable, given that Facebook's offering price of $38 a share valued the company at 26 times revenue and more than 100 times profits (it's now down to 21 times revenue and 74 times earnings). But LinkedIn is trading at 17 times its revenue and about 700 times its recent earnings. And while Facebook's stock has dropped 24% from its initial trading price last Friday, LinkedIn is down only 1% over the same period.

????Much of Facebook's slide is due to the ham-fisted bumbling of its IPO – notifying favored investors of weaker growth forecasts from the company and face-saving securities analysts, then announcing more shares for sale by insiders while lifting the offering price. Just how Wall Street managed to slap a sell rating on Facebook shares before the IPO is a tale yet to be told.

????Last Friday, LinkedIn's stock didn't move much for the first couple of hours. But once it became clear that Facebook's newly listed shares were faltering, LinkedIn began to fall, closing the day down 6% while Facebook closed largely unchanged from its offering price. Other web stocks also fell on the Facebook effect: Zynga (ZNGA) was down 14%, Groupon (GRPN) and Pandora (P) were both down 7%. And as of Thursday's close, LinkedIn is down about 1% since Facebook started trading, as are Pandora and Groupon.

????That may suggest that investor disenchantment in Facebook hasn't spread to other recent web IPOs -- except Zynga, since its revenue relies heavily on Facebook's fortunes. But it doesn't explain why investors would return to LinkedIn, when its PE is so much higher than that of Facebook's.

????The reason may be that investors are looking at other metrics, ones that suggest more future growth than Facebook was promising even before its (unofficially) lower guidance. In the quarter ended March 21, Facebook's revenue rose 45% to $1.06 billion. LinkedIn's grew more than twice as fast: 101% to $188 million.