????4. 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資供應(yīng)減少。相對(duì)于慷慨的天使投資者，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的來源在枯竭。過去5年中，無論是風(fēng)投基金得到的承諾投資，還是活躍基金的數(shù)目都減少了一半（見上圖）。2010年，僅1001家公司從風(fēng)投基金得到初始融資。這意味6.19萬家受到天使投資支持的公司中，僅有2% 可能會(huì)獲得風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資。而大眾融資將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大處于前風(fēng)投階段的公司數(shù)量。早期風(fēng)投將面對(duì)巨大的機(jī)會(huì)流，其中不乏高質(zhì)量公司（比如，那些生產(chǎn)出原型并已在市場初試啼聲的公司）。這對(duì)仍然活躍的早期風(fēng)投公司是重大利好。

????5. 更多更好的退出機(jī)制。《就業(yè)法案》的重大突破是所謂的“上市快通道”，它能為準(zhǔn)備上市的小型公司減少費(fèi)用和延遲，并吸引分析師人士小市值公司。隨著像阿萊克斯和羅伯特森?斯蒂芬斯這樣的新一代精品投行成長起來，服務(wù)于那些常常被“大到不能倒”的銀行所忽略的小型創(chuàng)業(yè)公司，這些改變的積極效應(yīng)將在未來五年逐一顯現(xiàn)。

????最后，時(shí)機(jī)看起來也支持風(fēng)投全新的黃金時(shí)代即將到來的看法。你很難真正吃準(zhǔn)風(fēng)投市場的時(shí)機(jī)，因?yàn)樾枰荛L時(shí)間進(jìn)入和退出公司。但是基金投資者可以從前述的牢固基本面分析得到信心。Harbourvest創(chuàng)始人布魯克斯?祖格和Accel創(chuàng)始人亞瑟?帕特森都觀察到風(fēng)投基金的表現(xiàn)有一個(gè)長周期，他們都認(rèn)為未來五年風(fēng)投將順風(fēng)順?biāo)Ｔ诮?jīng)歷上世紀(jì)九十年代的繁榮和本世界開始十年的蕭條之后，美國的風(fēng)投行業(yè)剛剛度過一段整頓時(shí)期。現(xiàn)在是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資另眼相看的時(shí)候了。

????約翰?巴克斯和托德?希克森是新大西洋風(fēng)投（New Atlantic Ventures）的合伙人，該公司在弗吉尼亞和馬薩諸塞設(shè)有辦事處。

????4. Reduced Supply Of Venture Capital. In contrast to the bountiful angels, the sources of venture capital are drying up. Both the dollars committed to VC funds and the number of active funds has declined by half in the last five years (chart above). In 2010 1,001 companies received initial funding from VC funds. This means that only ~2% of the 61,900 angel funded companies are likely to receive institutional venture capital. And crowdfunding will expand the pool of pre-VC companies. Early-stage VCs will see a huge flow of opportunities, many of them high-quality (i.e., companies that have prototypes and meaningful market results when we meet them). That's a very good thing for the early stage VCs that remain active.

????5. More and Better Exits. The big breakthrough with the JOBS act is the "IPO On-Ramp", which reduces cost and delay for smaller companies aiming to go public and makes analyst coverage of small-cap companies attractive. The benefit of these changes will emerge over the next five years, as a new generation of boutique investment banks, like Alex Brown and Robertson Stephens, grows up to serve smaller start-up companies that are largely ignored by the "too big to fail" banks.

????Finally, timing seems to be on the side of a new golden age of VC. You can't really time the venture market, because it takes too long to move in and out. But, fund investors can take confidence from the strong fundamentals noted above. Harbourvest founder Brooks Zug and Accel founder Arthur Patterson have both observed a long-term cycle in VC fund performance, and they both see the VC tide rising over the next five years. We're coming off a period of retrenchment in U.S. VC following the late '90s boom and the early '00s bust. Now is the time to take a new look at venture capital.

????John Backus and Todd Hixon are partners with New Atlantic Ventures, a VC firm with offices in Virginia and Massachusetts.