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世界頂尖天才商品交易員突然引退之謎

世界頂尖天才商品交易員突然引退之謎

Leah McGrath Goodman 2012-05-21
約翰?阿諾德曾被視為世界上最頂尖的商品交易員之一,擁有億萬美元的身家。但是,現在年僅38歲的阿諾德卻選擇了急流勇退,即將退出給他帶來無限榮光和財富的商品交易行業。這背后又有怎樣的隱情?

????阿諾德在Centaurus公司管理著一個松散的協會組織,其中大多數是男性交易員,這些人喜愛虛張聲勢,偶爾還會違反紀律。許多員工都是曾在安然共事的同事或競爭對手公司的員工。作為公司的掌舵者,他被尊為王中之王。

????甚至就連曾經調查過阿諾德在安然公司活動的政府監管人員也對他推崇有加。美國的能源監管部門商品期貨交易委員會(the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,CFTC)曾在安然公司破產后調查阿諾德和其他交易員。然而,這個機構竟然在2009年拜訪阿諾德,詢問該委員會應該如何改進工作方式。七年前,阿諾德曾是CFTC的調查的目標,而七年后,他卻成了不容置疑的權威,連CFTC都要向他征求意見,這恰恰證明了能源市場圈子小的特點。

????那么,阿諾德這樣的天才交易員為什么選擇急流勇退呢?這個決定與交易行業的競爭形勢密不可分。的確,阿諾德熱衷于競爭和取勝,但近年來對沖基金的回報率不斷下降,開始迫使他重新考慮這場游戲的性質。阿諾德賴以名利雙收的天然氣市場如今已經今非昔比;另外,水力壓裂法的出現使開采公司能夠輕松地獲得難以數計的天然氣。在可預見的未來,天然氣的供應將非常充裕。如此一來,天然氣價格瘋漲、引無數交易員競折腰的局面將成為歷史。它對美國來說是好消息,但是對阿諾德這些倚重天然氣驅動公司利潤引擎的對沖基金經理來說卻并非福音。

????如果金融市場的確存在什么真相,這個真相或許其實是這樣的:市場游戲難度增加時,交易員們就不愿意再玩了。

????但是,阿諾德絕不會就此銷聲匿跡。阿諾德是一家之長,這個小家還在添丁加口。但他已經開始熱心慈善。2010年,他和妻子勞拉響應比爾?蓋茨夫婦和沃倫?巴菲特的倡議簽署財產捐贈聲明,將捐出自己的大部分財產。

????譯者:喬樹靜/汪皓

????At his fund, Arnold presided over a loose federation of mostly male traders known for their swashbuckling lifestyles and occasionally unruly behavior. Many of his hires were former colleagues from Enron or competing firms. In his role as head of the firm, he was revered as a king among kings. (See Arnold on Fortune's 40 under 40 list last year)

????Even the government regulators who once investigated his activities at Enron seem to hold him in high regard. In 2009, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. energy watchdog that once went after Arnold and other traders at Enron in the wake of the company's spectacular demise, called him to testify on how the agency might better do its job. It is truly a testament to the small-world nature of the energy market that a trader once targeted by the CFTC would, seven years later, be sought out for his opinion as not just an equal, but an undisputed authority.

????So why would a trader of Arnold's caliber ever retire? Well, it has a lot to do with that competitive streak. Since Arnold's passion is competing – and winning – recent years of diminished hedge fund returns have forced him to rethink the nature of the game. The natural gas market, his bread and butter, isn't what it used to be, and the advent of hydraulic fracturing has placed hundreds of trillions of cubic feet of gas within easy reach of drillers. With supply looking plentiful for the foreseeable future, gas is no longer prone to the kinds of gravity-defying price spikes that once drew traders to it. This is good news for America, but not so great for hedge fund managers, like Arnold, who relied heavily on gas to fire their profit engine.

????If there is one financial Truth, maybe it is that when markets are not longer easy to game, traders will no longer want to play.

????But don't bet you've heard the last of Arnold. The father of a growing family who signed the Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett giving pledge to donate a majority of his wealth with his wife, Laura, in 2010, has already taken a keen interest in philanthropy.

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