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世界頂尖天才商品交易員突然引退之謎

世界頂尖天才商品交易員突然引退之謎

Leah McGrath Goodman 2012-05-21
約翰?阿諾德曾被視為世界上最頂尖的商品交易員之一,擁有億萬美元的身家。但是,現在年僅38歲的阿諾德卻選擇了急流勇退,即將退出給他帶來無限榮光和財富的商品交易行業。這背后又有怎樣的隱情?

????交易員們有時會私底下提到對金融市場真相的探究——他們深信,在金融市場深處隱藏著一個甜區,只要加以合理利用必定能夠賺錢。

????現年38歲的億萬富翁約翰?阿諾德是一名天然氣交易員,并被許多投資者視為“掌握了真相的人”,然而,他在本周向投資者宣布了退休計劃。阿諾德是能源市場上著名的“法師”,2007年,他入選福布斯美國400富豪榜單,成為美國最年輕的億萬富翁,從此便名聲大振。雖然阿諾德本人對所謂的金融真相(如果確實存在)嗤之以鼻,但是,在同行眼中,他確實掌握了這些秘訣。

????“我從未見過任何行業中的任何人能像阿諾德那樣,獲得過這么多的贊譽,”曾與阿諾德競爭、并敗給阿諾德的對沖基金的一位高管表示。“擁有私人飛機的CEO們都崇拜他。當他走進房間,頭發花白的交易員像12歲少女追捧賈斯汀?比伯那樣追捧他。通常情況下,像他這樣成功的人都樹敵頗多,但是我卻沒有發現他有什么仇人——這在這個行業里確實有些不可思議。要知道,人們當面都會贊揚保爾森或索羅斯,卻在背后悄悄議論他們。但是,人們對約翰?阿諾德的議論只有一個,那就是——他真是個不折不扣的天才。”

????阿諾德的故事可謂人盡皆知:他曾是安然公司(Enron)的明星交易員,從美國歷史上最臭名昭著的企業破產案中東山再起;2002年,在幾名早期投資者的幫助下,他用800萬美元的獎金在休斯頓成立了自己的對沖基金。許多人都懷有戒心,但是阿諾德不辭辛勞,使自己擺脫了安然公司的惡名,并在短短幾年內獲得了史無前例的巨額利潤和巨大的聲譽。

????2006年,阿諾德的基金Centaurus Advisors實現了317%的凈收益率。這支基金達到巔峰時,資金規模約為50億美元,其中大部分資金都屬于阿諾德本人。Centaurus的收費標準高于平均標準(3%的管理費和30%的收益),開盤后不久便向新投資者關閉了交易,但是,已經選擇了這支基金的許多投資者,就像是好不容易擠進了VIP房包間,拼命保住自己的會員資格,擔心一不留神就被趕出去。

????雖然他擁有無可匹敵的財富和公認的求勝心理,但是,很少有人知道阿諾德卑微的出身和低調的人格。他的數字運算能力和交易能力非常神奇,而他的幕后故事是:出身于中產階級家庭,極度羞澀,17歲時父親便離開了人世。他是家中最小的孩子,曾居住在匹茲堡和達拉斯,父母職業分別為律師和會計師。他聰慧過人,酷愛運動,在范德堡大學(Vanderbilt University)就讀期間給大學教授留下了深刻的印象。三年后大學畢業時,他獲得了數學和經濟學雙學位。但即便是與他最親近的人也對他有所防范,如安然公司之前的同事和他的哥哥馬修(同樣曾是安然公司的交易員)。另外,他的母親是Centaurus的會計師。

????Traders, when not speaking on the record, will sometimes allude to the search for a financial Truth -- a belief that somewhere buried deep within the market there is a sweet spot that, if properly tapped, can unleash a fortune.

????John Arnold, the 38-year-old billionaire gas trader who told his investors this week he planned to retire, was seen by many as the bearer of such a Truth. The celebrated necromancer of the energy market rose to fame in 2007, when he gate-crashed the Forbes 400 Richest Americans list as the youngest billionaire in the nation. And while it is likely that Arnold would scoff at the notion of a financial Truth, if there ever was one, it did appear to his trading brethren he was in possession of it.

????"I have never seen such universal adulation of anyone in an industry the way I've seen people adulate him," says an executive from a hedge fund that competed – and lost – against Arnold. "CEOs with their own private jets worship him. Grizzled traders act like 12-year old girls around Justin Bieber when he walks into the room. Someone this successful always has haters, but I've never seen him having any – and that is amazing for this industry. You know, people will extol Paulson or Soros and then whisper about them behind their backs. But the only thing they whisper about John Arnold is that he's a freakin' genius."

????The official story of Arnold is well-known: a star Enron trader who rose from the ashes of one of the most scandalous corporate bankruptcies in American history, launching his own Houston hedge fund in 2002 with the help of an $8 million bonus and a handful of early investors. While many were wary, Arnold took pains to distance himself from Enron's blackened legacy and, within a few short years, extracted frothy profits, propelling himself to unprecedented fame and celebrity. (See this 2009 Fortune story The wunderkind gas trader)

????In 2006, Arnold minted returns of 317%, net of fees, at his fund, Centaurus Advisors. At the fund's zenith, it held around $5 billion, much of it Arnold's own capital. Centaurus, which charged higher-than-average fees (3% for management and 30% of earnings) closed to new investors shortly after opening, but those who made the cut guarded their memberships fiercely, acting as though they barely squeaked into a VIP room from which they could easily be jettisoned.

????What is less known about Arnold is his humble background and low-key personality, despite his formidable wealth and what all agree is a diehard competitive streak. While his number-crunching capabilities and trading prowess are legendary, his backstory is one of a painfully shy, middle-class kid who lost his father at the age of 17. The youngest of his family, he grew up in Pittsburgh and then Dallas, reared by a lawyer father and accountant mother. He was a sharp student who impressed his professors at Vanderbilt University, where he graduated with a degree in both math and economics in three years, and loved to play sports. But those closest to him are very protective of him, including ex-colleagues at Enron and his older brother, Matthew, who also traded at Enron. Even at Centaurus, his mother worked as an accountant.

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