????周三早間，我在科技博客網站VentureBeat上看到一篇文章《風投冷對中國，對華投資減少》（As Venture Capitalists Turn Their Backs on China, Funding Dries Up），引發了我的幾點思考：

????1.無論市場好壞，優秀的投資者都會投資。他們自己做功課，就算市場愁云慘淡，也會著力尋找最優秀的企業家。本世紀初，我們投資了阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba Group），當時大多數投資者對中國都避之唯恐不及，但這項投資成就了歷史上以及全球最成功的風險投資之一。我們持續每年在中國和美國投資1億美元以上，今年我們也會這樣做。我們已經連續12年不間斷地做到了，而且企業家們明白，不管公開市場情況如何，他們都可以期待GGV給予他們支持。

????2. 門檻提高了。在熱門市場，風投可以向抄襲概念和缺乏競爭力的企業身上砸錢，希望有下一撥投資者“接手”（請注意：這種情況在所有的市場都有發生，不僅僅是在中國）。長期來看，這種方式可行不通。現在，投資的門檻已經提高了，風投們必須努力尋找最好的公司。當然，我是有偏見的，但請相信我，長期在中國本地投資的公司是有優勢的。它們經歷了市場的起起伏伏，與最優秀企業家們有著最牢固的關系，建立了網絡和團隊進行調研，物色最優秀的公司。我知道，我的合伙人們以及市場更強大的長期競爭對手現在都空前興奮。

????3. 趨勢不會騙人。中國仍有5億互聯網用戶。安卓（Android）和iOS在移動市場（10多億用戶）勢如破竹。消費者們正在迅速地將中國變成全球所有奢侈品制造商的頭號市場——從梅賽德斯（Mercedes）到蘋果（Apple），再到蔻馳（Coach），概莫能外。如果你想搞個天翻地覆，沒有比中國更好的市場了。企業家們都明白這一點，長期風投們也明白這一點。

????4. 同時也存在風險。我不想討論所有細節，但投資中國（就如同任何新興市場一樣），確實也有大風險，包括競爭、監管、法律、貨幣等等。其中一些風險讓投資者對中國望而卻步。投資新市場或許令人發憷，而且最后往往都是擁有本土經驗、本土關系和行業知識的本土投資者勝出。就像一句諺語說的，“過客最終是要回家的”。

????有一些本不該上市的中國公司在2010年和2011年都公開上市了。這些公司規模較小，缺乏長期可持續的商業模式。但這并不意味著所有的中國公司都是這個樣子。聽說過這些網站嗎：去哪兒網（Qunar）、京東商城（360Buy）或者多玩游戲網（GGV是去哪兒網和多玩游戲網的投資者）？它們都是實實在在的公司，擁有實實在在的商業模式和龐大的用戶群。與風險投資領域的情況類似，IPO的標準也提高了，我們認為這是一件好事情。

????雖然VentureBeat以此為題，但千萬不要以為所有的風投資本家都開始冷落中國了。長期投資者已經蹲守下來，支持最優秀的企業家，期待未來的挑戰和機遇。

????杰夫?理查茲 (@jrichlive) 是風險投資公司GGV Capital的合伙人。

????譯者：老榆木

????Saw this article in VentureBeat this morning: "As Venture Capitalists Turn Their Backs on China, Funding Dries Up," and it spurred a few thoughts:

????1. Good investors invest in good and bad markets. They do their homework and focus on finding the best entrepreneurs even when the markets are cloudy. We invested in Alibaba Group in the early 2000′s when most investors were scared to death of China, and it's been one of the greatest venture investments of all time – anywhere. We consistently put $100M+ to work each year in China and the US, and we will again this year. We've been doing it for 12 years – consistently – and entrepreneurs know they can count on GGV to support them regardless of what the public markets are doing.

????2. The bar has been raised. In hot markets, VCs can throw money at copycat concepts and weak businesses in hopes they can "flip" them to the next set of investors (note: this happens in all markets, not just China). This never works over the long run. The bar raises, and VCs have to work hard to find the best companies. I am biased, of course, but believe firms that have been investing locally in China for the long term will have an advantage. They have seen up and down markets, have the strongest relationships with the best entrepreneurs, and have built the infrastructure and teams to do their homework and find the best companies. I know my partners -- as well as many of our stronger, long-term competitors in the market -- have never been more excited.

????3. The trends don't lie. There are still 500 million Internet users in China. Android and iOS are taking the mobile phone market – one billion strong – by storm. Consumers are rapidly turning China into the #1 market for every luxury goods maker in the world – from Mercedes to Apple to Coach. If you want disruption on a massive scale, there is no better market than China. Entrepreneurs know it, and the long-term VCs know it.

????4). There are risks. I won't go into all the details, but yes there are major risks to investing in China (as there are in any emerging market). They include competitive, regulatory, legal, currency, etc. Some of these risks are why investors have pulled back on China. It can be scary to invest in a new market and, when this happens, ;local investors with local knowledge, local relationships and deep industry knowledge tend to win. As the saying goes "the tourists go home."

????There are Chinese companies which went public in 2010 and 2011 which never should have. They were sub-scale without long term, sustainable business models. But that doesn't mean all Chinese companies fit that profile. Ever heard of Qunar, 360Buy or YY? [disclosure: GGV is an investor in Qunar and YY]. They are very real companies with very real business models and massive user bases. As it has on the VC side, the bar has been raised for IPOs, and we think that is a good thing.

????But make no mistake – despite the VentureBeat headline t – not all venture capitalists are turning their backs on China. The long-term investors are hunkering down, backing the best entrepreneurs and looking forward to the challenges and opportunities ahead.

????Jeff Richards (@jrichlive) is a partner with venture capital firm GGV Capital.