歐美經濟棋局或將進入終盤
????結論是,迄今為止,金融公司的業績超出預期,這對于金融板塊股價構成短期利好。 ????關于美國經濟增長,有很多負面因素在未來幾個月將越來越受到關注。比如,到2013年1月1日,布什減稅計劃(包括臨時的個人所得稅減稅和長期的失業救助政策)將全部到期。接著,2013年1月15日,由于赤字削減聯合委員會(Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction)沒有達到預期的目標,應運而生的政府削減汽車開支計劃將會開始生效。這些因素會扼住美國經濟增長命脈嗎?可能不會,但2013年一季度的終盤對弈或許值得我們從現在就開始思考。 ????譯者:早稻米 |
????The takeaway is that financial companies so far are beating estimates, which is a positive driver for stock prices in the financial sector in the short-term. ????We have a number of negative catalysts relating to U.S. growth that will come more and more into focus in the coming months. Namely, as of January 1st, 2013, the Bush tax cuts, the temporary payroll tax cut, and the long-term unemployment benefits all expire. Then on January 15th, 2013 the automotive government spending cuts, driven by the failure of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, go into effect. Will it be check mate for U.S. economic growth? Probably not, but the first quarter of 2013 is certainly an end game to start contemplating. |