????沙特阿拉伯無法幫助西方國家擺脫日益攀升的石油和汽油價格，只有華爾街才能辦到。

????沙特于上周早些時候宣布，它已經(jīng)擴大原油生產(chǎn)，旨在應對伊朗可能關閉石油通道帶來的供應問題。雖然沙特擁有充足的石油儲備，但是沙特仍然無法憑一己之力應對最新一輪的油價上漲。沙特的石油產(chǎn)量正在接近產(chǎn)能極限，至于它能否填補伊朗的空白，目前還不得而知。此外，即使沙特可以做到這一點，在華爾街投機者們?nèi)匀豢礉q原油和汽油期貨產(chǎn)品的大背景下，沙特的努力依然顯得回天乏術。

????美國普通汽油平均價格為3.86美元/加侖，已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下歷史同期最高水平，與去年同期相比，上漲幅度達到了9%。普通汽油價格上漲主要與原油價格相關，而原油價格也因伊朗核項目緊張局勢引發(fā)的供應問題而水漲船高。美國和歐洲的嚴厲制裁觸及了伊朗的要害，引發(fā)了一場唇槍舌戰(zhàn)，也使得投資者備感緊張。

????雖然對伊朗的口頭攻擊不絕于耳，但是針對伊朗的嚴厲制裁并未給全球石油供應造成重大影響。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）估計，2月份伊朗日產(chǎn)油量為342.4萬桶，與2011年平均產(chǎn)能相比，下降了大約5.4%。但利比亞和沙特等其他OPEC成員國原油產(chǎn)量增加，極大地彌補了伊朗產(chǎn)能的小幅下降。與此同時，美國市場的石油供應依然非常充足。目前，商品原油儲備充足，可以滿足57.5天的需求。這一數(shù)據(jù)比去年同期相比增加了4天，而與五年期平均數(shù)據(jù)相比也增加了6.6天。

????雖然出現(xiàn)這種大規(guī)模供應中斷的可能性微乎其微，但是，正是這種潛在的可能性使石油價格出現(xiàn)上漲。上周，沙特石油部長在接受采訪時表示，沙特時刻準備好“填補理論或現(xiàn)實中的原油供應缺口。”本周，沙特內(nèi)閣發(fā)表官方聲明，指出“僅”沙特一個國家就可以為市場供應充足的石油，使油價回歸至消費者所謂的“正常”水平。消息一出，美國基準原油期貨價格下跌了2美元，使本周二收盤價下降到了106.07美元。

????雖然這一消息令人欣慰，但卻沒有什么實際意義。沙特已經(jīng)打破OPEC設置的產(chǎn)能限額（OPEC大多數(shù)成員國也是如此），每天產(chǎn)量達到了990萬桶。這一數(shù)據(jù)令人震驚，即將逼近31年來的最高產(chǎn)能紀錄。沙特的生產(chǎn)設備正在開足馬力，滿負荷運轉(zhuǎn)，投入使用的鉆探設備數(shù)量相比去年同期出現(xiàn)了大幅上漲。另外，沙特甚至計劃啟動退役石油產(chǎn)區(qū)的開采工作，開采任何可能存在的石油。

????官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，沙特的滿負荷產(chǎn)能是1,250萬桶/天，比現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)能高出250萬桶/天。而這也恰巧是伊朗的產(chǎn)能限額，這也促使我們相信，沙特非常有可能彌補伊朗減少的任何產(chǎn)能。但是，許多分析人士認為，考慮到近來接近瘋狂的生產(chǎn)率和所有在用新型鉆井設備的數(shù)量，沙特將在數(shù)月之內(nèi)達到產(chǎn)能上限。即使果真如此，這種做法也是不可持續(xù)的，因為生產(chǎn)率提高到這樣的水平將給油田帶來破壞。

????Saudi Arabia can't save the West from rising oil and gasoline prices -- only Wall Street can.

????The Kingdom announced earlier this week that it was increasing crude production in a bid to shake off supply concerns involving a potential shut off of Iranian oil supplies. While Saudi Arabia does have a massive reserve base, it can't fight this latest run-up in prices on its own. It is already running close to its production limit and it's unclear it can bring enough supply online to fill an Iranian void. Furthermore, even if Saudi Arabia could somehow fill a hypothetical supply gap, it is unlikely it would really make much of a difference in a market where speculators on Wall Street continue to hold large bullish positions in crude and gasoline futures.

????The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. is averaging around $3.86 a gallon, which is a record high for this time of year and 9% above where it was during the same time last year. Much of the increase can be traced back to crude prices, which have moved up considerably amid supply concerns stemming from tensions over Iran's nuclear program. Tighter sanctions by the U.S. and Europe have hit a nerve in Tehran, provoking a war of words that have made investors nervous.

????Despite the verbal assaults, there has been little impact on global oil supply as a result of the tougher sanctions on Iran. OPEC estimates Iran produced 3.424 million barrels of oil a day in February, which is off around 5.4% from the 2011 average. Increased crude production from the rest of OPEC, namely Libya and Saudi Arabia, more than made up for this small decline in output. Meanwhile, the U.S. market continues to be well supplied. There is currently enough oil in commercial oil storage tanks to cover 57.5 days of demand, which is 4 days more than a year ago and 6.6 days more than the five-year average.

????But it is the potential for a massive supply disruption that is adding a special premium to oil prices, even though such a possibility is remote. Saudi Arabia's oil minister told reporters last week that the Kingdom stands ready to "make good any shortfalls – perceived or real – in crude oil supply." This week, the Kingdom's cabinet released an official statement saying that it "alone" would supply enough oil to the markets to return prices back to what it deems to be a "fair" level for consumers. U.S. benchmark crude futures shed about $2 after the news, to end Tuesday at $106.07.

????But while the news is comforting, it really has little substance. Saudi Arabia is already breaking its own OPEC-imposed production quota limit (as are most other OPEC members) and producing an astounding 9.9 million barrels a day, putting it close to a 31-year production high. The Kingdom's production engine is firing on all cylinders with the number of drilling rigs in operation, up significantly from the same time last year. It is even going to start drilling in retired oil patches to squeeze out any extra oil that might still be underground.

????Officially, Saudi Arabia's full production capacity is around 12.5 million barrels a day, which is 2.5 million barrels a day above its current production level. It also just happens to be Iran's production limit, which could lead one to believe that the Saudis could possibly make up for any lost Iranian production. But given the frenzied production rates of late and all the new drilling rigs in operation, many analysts believe that it would take several months to push production up to its ceiling. And even if it could somehow hit that level it may not be sustainable as it would mean raising production to levels that could actually damage the fields.