????蘋果（Apple）承諾回購股票，但它的股價需要漲到多高才能使得回購計劃物有所值？這個問題值得一問。畢竟，蘋果原本可以將宣布用于股票回購的100億美元花在其他很多事情上，同樣能提升股東的價值，比如，提高已宣布的99億美元年度派息（蘋果當前的股息收益率為1.8%），甚至進行一次性特別派息。

????為回答這個問題，Fortuna Advisors的格里高里?米蘭諾進行了一些簡單的計算；Fortuna Advisors是一家為財富500強公司提供市值最大化建議的咨詢公司。米蘭諾認為，股票回購就和公司其他任何投資一樣，必須提供良好的回報，才稱得上是對資本的合理利用。換句話說，如果一家公司按每股10美元的價格回購股票，第二年股價漲至12美元，給股東帶來的“投資回報率”就是20%。由于企業平均資本成本為每年10%（債務和股東權益費用），如果想增加股東利潤，大部分公司回購的回報率應超過10%。

????蘋果的情況是其資本回報率異常高。這家科技巨頭的經營資本回報率約為40%，遠遠高于其資本成本。那么，蘋果回購股票的最低投資回報率應當是多少呢？米蘭諾認為，20%的“投資回報率”是一個合理的數字。

????如果這次回購要達到這樣的回報率，米蘭諾稱，未來五年蘋果股價須上漲128%至1,368美元。如果是較低一些的10%回報率，蘋果股價則需要在五年內漲至984美元。

????蘋果股價能達到這么高的水平嗎？當今的蘋果可謂占盡天時地利人和。過去一年，該股股價上漲了82%。僅第一季度，受iPad、 iPhone銷售火爆推動，蘋果就已經實現了160億美元的自由現金流。但在股票市場，諸事難料?！肮蓛r漲到800美元就和跌到500美元一樣容易”，這樣的觀點也并不是完全沒有道理。

??? 如果蘋果以每股600美元的價格回購股票，后來股價跌至每股400美元，留下來的股東就虧了——公司多付了30%的價錢。同樣，如果股價繼續以現有速度上漲（自去年12月以來漲了30%）達到近700美元或800美元，蘋果在什么樣的價位上回購股票才能真正具有經濟上的意義？

????為了讓當前600美元的股價合理，米蘭諾計算得出，蘋果若要延續其經濟贏利能力，需要將2016財年的銷售額增至3,000億美元。蘋果最近一個財政年度的銷售額為1,080 億美元。

????How high does Apple's stock need to rise to make its promised buyback worthwhile? It's a question worth asking. After all, Apple could have spent the $10 billion it announced in share buybacks on any number of things to grow shareholder value—a bigger dividend than the annual $9.9-billion payout announced, which currently yields 1.8%, or even a one-time special-dividend.

????To answer the question, Gregory Milano of Fortuna Advisors, which advises Fortune 500 companies on maximizing their market value, did some quick math. Milano considers buybacks to be like any other investment a company can make. Buybacks must offer a good return in order to be deemed a smart use of capital. That is, if a company buys its stock at $10 a share and it rises to $12 next year, it's earned a 20% "return on investment" for shareholders. Because the average business's capital costs run 10% a year, between debt and equity expenses, most companies should seek buybacks to return more than 10% a year if they want to build shareholder profit.

????In Apple's case, returns on capital are extraordinary. The tech giant earns around a 40% return on its operating capital, far exceeding its capital costs. So what's a good hurdle rate, or minimum rate of return, for its buyback? Milano thinks a 20% "return on investment" is fair.

????For the buybacks to deliver that return, Milano says Apple's stock price will have to rise 128% to $1,368 over the next five years. For a meager 10% buyback return, the stock needs to hit $984 in five years.

????Can the stock reach those heights? Everything is working in Apple's favor today. Shares have risen 82% over the past year. In the first quarter alone it recorded $16 billion in free cash flow on screaming hot sales of iPads and iPhones. But nothing is certain in the stock market. It's not unfair to think the stock could jump to $800 as easily as it could fall back to $500.

????If Apple buys shares at $600, and the stock later drops to $400, its remaining shareholders are penalized—the company overpaid by 30%. Likewise, if shares keeps rising at their current pace —up 30% since December—to reach levels near $700 or $800, at what point does Apple (AAPL) ask if it truly makes economic sense to buy shares at such a high level?

????To justify its current $600 stock price, Milano has calculated that Apple, continuing its level of economic profitability, needs to grow sales to $300 billion in fiscal 2016. It recorded sales of $108 in the latest fiscal year.