????如果想了解突尼斯、埃及和利比亞的革命爆發(fā)一年后，阿拉伯之春地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟健康狀況，不妨聽聽阿布-伯克爾?馬克羅夫怎么說。去年2月，埃及開羅一家建筑材料公司的創(chuàng)始人馬克羅夫站在人潮涌動的解放廣場，裹著一件厚厚的外套，徹夜參加抗議示威活動。埃及總統(tǒng)穆巴拉克逃離開羅幾天前：“我照常給員工們付工資，讓他們去加入革命的隊列，”馬克羅夫告訴我。“我們沒法回頭，”他說。“我們已經(jīng)失去了一切。”

????或者說，這只是他當初的想法。現(xiàn)年33歲的馬克羅夫在2010年用個人積蓄開始了創(chuàng)業(yè)之路，為埃及熱火朝天的建筑行業(yè)提供建材。然而，在接下來的12個月里，他的六名員工除了等待客戶，無事可干。但沒有客戶上門。在穆巴拉克倒臺一年后，馬克洛夫終于關閉了公司。他說：“我的現(xiàn)金全部花光了。”

????同樣的情況也發(fā)生在其他很多人身上。如果不是國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的32億美元貸款，埃及這個區(qū)域性的強國可能也早已沒有現(xiàn)錢了。投資者和旅游者們都在等待動蕩的結束。類似的情況也發(fā)生在突尼斯，度假村空空蕩蕩地限制在燦爛的陽光下。而在利比亞，雖然1月份產(chǎn)油130萬桶（已接近革命前的產(chǎn)量），但只要武裝派別搶奪地盤的混戰(zhàn)不停歇，大多數(shù)外國投資者仍會遠離這個國家。

????動蕩還只是其中一個問題。阿拉伯之春地區(qū)經(jīng)過數(shù)十年僵化的、國家主導的經(jīng)濟體制，如今同樣需要一場經(jīng)濟革命。整個地區(qū)的當務之急包括簡化種種繁瑣的手續(xù)以及全面改革數(shù)以千計荒謬的貿易條例。舉個例子：一輛卡車從沙特開至敘利亞，回程必須空載。多少年來，跨國公司全盤接受了低效腐敗的潛規(guī)則，把全部注意力都放在了這個25歲以下人口占比高達65%的地區(qū)（總人口3.50億）所蘊藏的巨大商業(yè)潛力上，希望能夠淘到真金。而且，老一套的體系看來反而更容易預料。“說起來悲哀，但有獨裁者的地方，穩(wěn)定的概率還會高點，”法國信貸風險公司Coface的地區(qū)平臺經(jīng)理里卡多?卡拉多里稱。

????然而，這種日子已經(jīng)到頭了。隨著很多公司在北非建立的種種關系毀于革命，當這些國家的經(jīng)濟之門重新打開，它們將面臨更嚴峻的競爭，包括來自當?shù)赝顿Y者的競爭，而在過去，這些投資者根本無法觸及高毛利的合同。如今在突尼斯和埃及占據(jù)主導地位的伊斯蘭黨派已聲稱將對商界友好，計劃重金投資建設新的基礎設施和房地產(chǎn)。但投資者們需要考慮的不光光是利潤。“大公司需要一套新的說辭，”牛津大學伊斯蘭研究中心（Oxford's Center for Islamic Studies）的阿迪爾?馬利克表示。“他們將必須討論就業(yè)和發(fā)展小企業(yè)的問題。”

????在開羅，馬克羅夫已在籌備一家新的房地產(chǎn)公司，準備迎接蜂擁而入的投資者。與此同時，他還打算開設一家咨詢辦事處——不是在埃及，而是在距離阿拉伯之春數(shù)千英里的法國戛納。

????If you want to gauge the Arab Spring's economic health one year after revolutions exploded in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, meet Abu-Bakr Makhlouf. Last February, Makhlouf, founder of a construction supply company in Cairo, stood in a packed Tahrir Square, bundled in a heavy coat for the nightlong protests. "I paid my staff and told them to go join the revolution," he told me, days before President Mubarak fled the capital. "There is no turning back," he said. "We have nothing else to lose."

????Or so he thought. Makhlouf, 33, had plowed his savings into his startup in 2010 and begun supplying materials to Egypt's booming construction industry. Then, over the next 12 months, his six employees sat idle, waiting for customers. None came. On the anniversary of Mubarak's downfall, Makhlouf finally closed shop. "I ran out of cash," he said.

????The same can be said for countless others. Egypt, the region's powerhouse, might have run out of cash itself without a $3.2 billion IMF loan. Investors and tourists are waiting out the upheaval. Likewise in Tunisia, where resorts have sat empty in the dazzling sunlight. And although Libya pumped 1.3 million barrels of oil in January -- close to its pre-revolution output -- most foreign investors will stay away as long as militia groups fight lethal turf battles.

????Turmoil is just one problem. After decades of fossilized, state-dominated economies, the Arab Spring now needs an economic revolution. Urgent tasks include streamlining confounding red tape and overhauling thousands of nonsensical trade rules across the region. One example: A truck traveling from Saudi Arabia to Syria is obligated to return empty. For years, multinationals simply accepted the unproductive and hugely corrupt business practices, focusing on the rich potential of a region in which 60% of the 350 million people are under 25. Besides, the system seemed predictable. "It's sad to say, but everywhere you have dictators, you have more chance for stability," says Riccardo Carradori, regional platform manager for the French credit-risk company Coface.

????No longer. With their relationships in North Africa gone, corporations will face stiffer competition once economies open, including from local investors previously shut out of lucrative contracts. The Islamic parties now dominating Tunisia and Egypt have proclaimed business-friendly goals, with plans to invest heavily in new infrastructure and housing. Yet investors will need to think beyond profits. "Big businesses need a new rhetoric," says Adeel Malik of Oxford's Center for Islamic Studies. "They will have to talk about jobs and developing small enterprises."

????In Cairo, Makhlouf is already plotting a new real estate venture in readiness for an influx of investors. Meanwhile, he is opening a consulting office -- not in Egypt but thousands of miles from the Arab Spring, in Ghana.