????歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)剛剛獲得喘息之機(jī)，然而，就在此時(shí)，華爾街又開(kāi)始越來(lái)越擔(dān)心日本可能成為這場(chǎng)全球金融危機(jī)的下一個(gè)引爆點(diǎn)。當(dāng)前，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱，負(fù)債相對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)值已經(jīng)急劇膨脹，水平之高甚至使希臘看上去都像是用錢(qián)有度。日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)賬目經(jīng)過(guò)了約20年的累積，似乎將在不遠(yuǎn)的將來(lái)迎來(lái)關(guān)鍵時(shí)刻。

????華爾街正在買(mǎi)入信用違約掉期（CDS），為日本債務(wù)危機(jī)爆發(fā)的那一天做好準(zhǔn)備。紐約和倫敦的交易員們告訴《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune），過(guò)去一年日本主權(quán)債券CDS大幅震蕩，現(xiàn)為135個(gè)基點(diǎn)左右，比日本主權(quán)債券收益率高出100個(gè)基點(diǎn)。CDS為投資者提供了違約情況下的獲利機(jī)會(huì)。

????雖然日本的債務(wù)炸彈不會(huì)明天就爆炸，但當(dāng)前日本CDS的價(jià)格已比一年前高出50%。近年來(lái)華爾街對(duì)日本債券市場(chǎng)的參與度上升，可能給日本政府帶來(lái)更大的壓力，迫使它們努力解決債務(wù)困境。不過(guò)，華爾街的“債券保安團(tuán)”（bond vigilantes，為抗議通脹性的貨幣或財(cái)政政策而賣(mài)出債券的投資者——譯注）可能會(huì)逐步將日本債券收益率推至高位，導(dǎo)致日本政府再也無(wú)力償付債券，引發(fā)歷史上最大規(guī)模的主權(quán)債務(wù)違約潮之一。

????想到素以高效和受到良好教育而著稱(chēng)的日本人可能已經(jīng)給自己挖下了這么一個(gè)債務(wù)泥潭，真是有點(diǎn)不可思議。但當(dāng)前日本的總負(fù)債/GDP比率已高達(dá)235%，并還在與日俱增。可資比較的是美國(guó)的負(fù)債/GDP比率約為98%，處境最糟糕的歐元區(qū)成員國(guó)希臘和葡萄牙的這一比率也分別只有159%和110%左右。

????日本之所以能不斷擴(kuò)大舉債，有賴于一些顯而易見(jiàn)的債務(wù)保障機(jī)制，包括強(qiáng)大的出口產(chǎn)業(yè)使得日本成為一個(gè)資本凈輸入國(guó)，以及忠誠(chéng)的日本人更傾向于在國(guó)內(nèi)進(jìn)行投資和消費(fèi)。而且，和其他發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體不同，很大一部分日本債務(wù)的債主都是本國(guó)國(guó)民，因此它并不需要面對(duì)華爾街債券投資者的質(zhì)問(wèn)。

????但上周，日本傳出的一些經(jīng)濟(jì)消息卻令投資者大為緊張。這些消息顯示，日本的債務(wù)保障體系已竟出現(xiàn)裂縫。消息稱(chēng)，第四季度日本GDP降幅為遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期的2.3%；此外，日本這個(gè)出口大國(guó)還宣布出現(xiàn)了1980年以來(lái)首次全年貿(mào)易逆差。日本財(cái)務(wù)省（the Ministry of Finance）將貿(mào)易逆差歸咎于能源價(jià)格高企，以及去年大地震導(dǎo)致出口中斷。雖然這兩項(xiàng)因素確實(shí)在一定程度上導(dǎo)致了貿(mào)易逆差，但主要問(wèn)題似乎在于日元。

????目前，日元兌美元和歐元的匯率極其堅(jiān)挺，導(dǎo)致日本出口商品的國(guó)際市場(chǎng)價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)高于從前。隨著出口減少，日本一些大型出口企業(yè)可能出現(xiàn)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的虧損數(shù)據(jù)。比如，最近松下（Panasonic）已宣稱(chēng)本財(cái)年預(yù)計(jì)虧損100億美元，索尼（Sony）也表示本財(cái)年凈虧損將翻番至28億美元左右，創(chuàng)下公司歷史上最高的年度虧損。日本大企業(yè)虧損意味著日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩，政府財(cái)政收入銳減。為了維持運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，政府只能向繼續(xù)國(guó)民借更多的錢(qián)。

????With the European sovereign debt imbroglio taking a breather for the moment, there is increasing concern on Wall Street that Japan could be the next major flashpoint in the ongoing global financial crisis. It appears that the country's economic reckoning, some 20 years in the making, could finally be coming to a head in the near future as the economy weakens and its debt, relative to its economic output, balloons to a level that makes Greece look like a responsible steward of capital.

????Wall Street is buying protection in the form of credit default swaps to prepare for that day Japan implodes. Trading of swaps on Japanese sovereigns has been highly volatile in the past year -- they are currently being sold at around 135 basis points, 100 basis points above Japan's debt yield, credit traders in New York and London tell Fortune. Credit default swaps provide a way for investors to make money in the event of a default.

????While the Japanese debt bomb isn't expected to go off tomorrow, Japanese CDS is now 50% higher than where it was a year ago. Wall Street involvement in the Japanese debt market has grown in the last few years, which could bring increased pressure on the government to try and solve its debt dilemma. Eventually, though, the Wall Street bond vigilantes could drag Japanese bond yields up to levels that could cripple the government's ability to pay off its debts, setting the stage for one of the most prolific sovereign debt defaults in history.

????It seems crazy to think that Japan, a country known for its efficiency and educated population, could have dug itself into such a dire debt hole. But Japan's total debt compared to its GDP is topping 235% and getting larger by the day. As a point of reference, the U.S. has a debt to GDP ratio of around 98%, while the worst off eurozone members, Greece and Portugal, have ratios of around 159% and 110%, respectively.

????But Japan has been able to continue racking up the debt because of some notable debt defenses. Those defenses include the nation's strong export industry, as it allows Japan to be a net importer of capital, and the nation's loyal population, which tends to invest and spend money at home. And unlike other advanced economies, the bulk of Japan's debt is held by its own citizens, so it hasn't faced the full wrath of Wall Street's bond investors.

????But the nation announced some startling economic news this week that has exposed some chinks in Japan's debt defenses. In addition to announcing a much larger-than-expected 2.3% contraction in the country's GDP in the fourth quarter, Japan, the exporting powerhouse, said it ran its first annual trade deficit since 1980. The Ministry of Finance blamed the trade deficit on the high price of energy and the disruption in exports caused by last year's devastating earthquake. While both events did contribute to the trade deficit, the main issue here seems to be Japan's currency.

????The yen is now extremely strong versus the U.S. dollar and the euro, making Japan's exports appear more expensive than ever before on the international market. Some of the nation's largest export-driven companies are reporting record losses as a result of reduced outflows. For example, Panasonic recently said that it was forecasting a $10 billion loss for the fiscal year, while Sony (SNE) announced that it was doubling its net loss to around $2.8 billion for the fiscal year, the largest loss in the company's history. The losses at Japan's biggest firms translate to reduced economic growth and a big decrease in government revenue. That forces Tokyo to borrow more money from its citizens to stay afloat.