????7、投資者擔(dān)憂發(fā)達(dá)國家貨幣供應(yīng)迅速增長，合理管理本國經(jīng)濟(jì)的國家，貨幣將受到投資者的追捧。北歐貨幣、澳元、新加坡元和韓元將從中受益。

????8、美國國會認(rèn)識到其職能紊亂對兩黨都不利，并決定在11月總統(tǒng)選舉之前處理國會削減赤字聯(lián)席選擇委員會的問題。這個委員會未能拿出方案，在10年內(nèi)將美國預(yù)算赤字減少12,000萬億美元。國防和醫(yī)療預(yù)算大幅削減。農(nóng)業(yè)補(bǔ)貼減少，針對石油、天然氣和房地產(chǎn)合伙公司的減稅有所調(diào)整。奧巴馬承諾，如若連任，將繼續(xù)執(zhí)行布什減稅計劃的若干條款。

????9、阿拉伯國家的春天終于來臨，阿薩德及其家族對敘利亞的統(tǒng)治終結(jié)。阿薩德政權(quán)倒臺不可避免，在整個地區(qū)產(chǎn)生重要的連鎖反應(yīng)，削弱了哈馬斯和赫茲布拉派的勢力，并進(jìn)一步孤立伊朗。

????10、新興市場股市在兩年的慘淡之后終于迎來了春天，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速接近10%。雖然增長稍稍趨緩，但是積極的評估將使得中國、印度和巴西的指數(shù)增長15-20%。

????如下幾項未入選2012年十大預(yù)測之列，主要是因為我認(rèn)為其發(fā)生概率不到50%，或者其重要程度不如我最終選定的十項預(yù)測。

????11、房市強(qiáng)勢反彈。經(jīng)濟(jì)實力與高購買力這兩項因素共同促使消費者回歸房地產(chǎn)市場，并進(jìn)行長期投資。過剩的空置房屋將逐步得到消化。

????12. 十年期美國國庫券收益率提高到4%，因為中國會持續(xù)在硬資產(chǎn)和原材料方面大量投資，而不再大量將外匯儲備用于購買發(fā)達(dá)國家的債券。

????13. 金價在2011年底調(diào)整之后，在2012年反彈至1,800美元/盎司。發(fā)達(dá)國家進(jìn)行的貨幣政策調(diào)整使得個人投資者和主權(quán)財富基金重新向硬資產(chǎn)方面傾斜。銀價也從中受益，價格升至40美元/盎司。

????14、國家和地方層面的財政紀(jì)律使得市政債券收益仍會繼續(xù)下降。

????拜倫?維恩現(xiàn)任黑石顧問合伙人公司副董事長，曾任摩根斯坦利首席美國投資戰(zhàn)略家。

????譯者：李玫曉/汪皓

????7. Concerned over rapid money supply growth in the developed world, investors buy the currencies of countries that seem to be managing their economies sensibly. Scandinavian currencies, the Australian and Singapore dollar and the Korean won benefit.

????8. Congress decides its dysfunctionality is harmful to both parties and acts before the November election to deal with the failure of the Super Committee to develop a program to reduce the U.S. budget deficit by $1.2 trillion over ten years. Both defense and Medicare are cut significantly; subsidies for agriculture are reduced and tax deductions for oil, gas and real estate partnerships are modified. Obama pledges to let some aspects of the Bush tax cut program continue if he is reelected.

????9. The Arab Spring finally overcomes Bashar al-Assad and his family's rule over Syria ends. While Assad's fall might have been inevitable, it has important ripple effects throughout the region weakening Hamas, Hezbollah and further isolating Iran.

????10. After two years of poor stock market performance while their economies came through with high single-digit real growth the emerging markets finally have a good year. Growth slows somewhat but favorable valuations enable China, India and Brazil indexes to appreciate 15-20%.

????Below are several "also rans" which did not make the Ten Surprises list because (a) I did not think they had a more than 50% probability of happening and/or (b) they were not as important to investors as the ten I ultimately chose:

????11. Housing starts to pick up significantly. The strength in the economy coupled with record affordability encourages the consumer to come back into the market and make long term commitments. The overhang of vacant homes begins to be absorbed.

????12. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rises to 4% as China continues to invest heavily in hard assets and raw materials and pulls back from putting reserves into the bonds of developed nations.

????13. After correcting sharply toward the end of 2011 gold rebounds to $1800 during the year. Accommodative monetary policies throughout the developed world cause a renewed migration to hard assets by individual investors and sovereign wealth funds. Silver benefits also, rising to $40.

????14. Fiscal discipline at the state and local level allows the drop in yields for municipal bonds to continue.

????Byron Wien is vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, and is the former chief U.S> investment strategist for Morgan Stanley.