精品国产_亚洲人成在线高清,国产精品成人久久久久,国语自产偷拍精品视频偷拍

立即打開
如何從負收益率債券中賺錢

如何從負收益率債券中賺錢

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-01-16
德國國債拍賣首次出現負收益率,這意味著投資者需要為能有幸借錢給一個國家而倒貼利息,不過這件事也許并不像看上去那么不可理喻。

????借錢給別人還要倒貼利息,這種事你會干嗎?這就是眼下德國發生的情況。上周,短期德國國債收益率轉為負值,這意味著投資者不僅放棄了投資德國國債的收益,而且,等到這些債券到期時,他們拿到的錢事實上會比投入的本金還要少。

????這事聽起來可能有些荒誕,但我們可以換個角度來看待這個問題。投資者可能是為了在歐債危機之中希望道道一個安全的地方進行投資,同時,有可能投資者在收益率為負值的情形下仍然有利可圖。

????上周一的國債拍賣中,德國售出了49.6億美元的6個月國債,平均收益率為-0.0122%。據報道,這是德國國債拍賣首次出現負收益率。但《華爾街日報》(The Wall Street Journal)指出的那樣, 幾年前金融危機最嚴重的時候,短期美國國債的收益率也曾經跌至負值。鑒于市場中所有的不確定因素,投資者將資金從高風險投資中撤出,投入更安全的證券,其中主要是短期美國國債。

????通常,投資者總是希望將來拿到的錢能多于借出去的錢。但上周德國國債拍賣的結果表明,由于擔心投資其他地方可能造成更大的損失,投資者或許愿意承受相對更小的損失。但事實上,投資者得到的回報可能要多于預期。

????其一,假如未來歐洲危機進一步惡化,與債券價格反向而動的債券收益率進一步下跌的話,這批德國債券的價格可能會上漲。

????而且,如果通貨緊縮抬頭,投資者還有望獲得更高一些的回報率;由于市場預計今年歐洲可能會陷入經濟衰退,不能排除出現通貨緊縮的可能性。如果物價在長時間持續下跌,把錢塞在床墊下或保險箱里可能對投資者更有利。不消說,企業和投資經理們不可能這么干,盡管曠日持久的歐債危機持續打擊人們投資和放貸的積極性。因此,他們涌入短期國債尋求避風港,期望將來能獲得高于預期的回報率。

????邁阿密大學(University of Miami)金融學教授布萊恩?巴里特是這樣看的:假設某短期國債的收益率為- 0.5%,年底到期償付1,000美元。因此該國債價格應為1,005。

????現在,假設年初時復印紙價格為每箱10美元。用這1,005美元,公司可以買100.50箱。

????但假設這家公司不這么做,而是把錢塞到了床墊下。全年物價穩步走低。到年底時,通貨膨脹率已降至-1%,即這時一箱復印紙的價格僅為9.90美元。這時,這家公司再拿出那1,005美元,就可以買101.52箱,比年初劃算多了。

????顯然,公司不能把錢藏在床墊下。管理層需要把手頭的現金投入使用,因此他們采取了類似的做法。這部分投資者為公司資金尋找的是低風險的投資領域,因此選擇購買負收益率的債券。他們在年初買入1,005美元的債券,年底到期可獲得1,000美元。用這些錢,公司可購買101.01箱復印紙,仍然要比年初時多。

????因此,雖然表面看起來是投資者幫了德國的忙,但說到底,投資者自己得到的甜頭更大。

????Would you pay someone to give them a loan? That's essentially what's happening in Germany right now -- German short-term bills turned negative earlier this week, meaning investors will not only forgo returns on German debt, they'll actually end up with less money when the bonds expire.

????It may sound preposterous, but that's not the only way of looking at it. Aside from finding a safe place to invest amid all the uncertainties attached with Europe's ongoing debt crisis, it's possible that investors can also make money on negative yields.

????In an auction Monday, Germany sold $4.96 billion of six-month bills with an average yield of negative 0.0122%. This is reportedly the first time yields turned negative at a German debt auction. However, as The Wall Street Journal points out, short-term U.S. Treasury yields spiraled to negative territory during the worst of the financial crisis several years ago. With all the uncertainties in the market, investors pulled cash out of risky investments and put them into safer securities – notably, short-term U.S. government debt.

????Investors typically expect to be repaid more than they lend. And indeed, Monday's auction in Germany signals they may be willing to settle for slightly less given fears about potentially big losses elsewhere. But it's possible for investors to gain more than expected.

????For one, the price for these bills could rise if yields, which move in the opposite direction, fall further should the crisis in Europe take a turn for the worse.

????And investors stand to see modestly bigger returns if deflation arises – a development some aren't ruling that out given expectations that Europe could slip into recession this year. When prices fall for a prolonged period, investors are better off stuffing cash under the mattress or a safe deposit box. Needless to say, corporations and money managers – discouraged from investing and lending given Europe's ongoing debt crisis – can't practically do that. So they flock to safety in bills and hope for better gains.

????University of Miami finance professor Brian Barrett sees it this way: Say the yield on a short-term government bond is negative 0.5%. The bill pays $1,000 when it matures at the end of the year. So the price of the bill would be $1,005.

????Now let's say copy paper at the start of the year is going for $10 a case. With $1,005, a company can buy 100.50 cases.

????But let's say the company holds off and stuffs its money under a mattress. And at the end of the year, prices have steadily declined. Inflation has dropped to negative 1%, which means a case of paper is now going for $9.90. Now the company pulls out its $1,005 and can buy 101.52 cases. That's better than at the beginning of the year.

????Obviously companies can't store money under a mattress. Executives need to put cash on hand at work, so they do what's essentially the equivalent. The investor, looking for a low-risk place to invest the company's cash, buys bonds at negative yields. By investing $1,005 in the bond, the investor ends up with $1,000 when it matures at the end of the year. With that, the company can buy 101.01 cases of copy paper. That's still more than it could buy at the beginning of the year.

????So while it may seem investors are doing Germany a favor, in the end, the bigger winners are likely the investors themselves.

熱讀文章
熱門視頻
掃描二維碼下載財富APP

            主站蜘蛛池模板: 衡东县| 周至县| 历史| 三都| 长岛县| 大港区| 大港区| 莫力| 新蔡县| 巩留县| 遵义县| 喜德县| 天全县| 巴青县| 邯郸县| 蒙山县| 汝南县| 思茅市| 汨罗市| 隆尧县| 郸城县| 宜君县| 邵东县| 望江县| 屏东市| 隆尧县| 玉屏| 揭东县| 康定县| 阳江市| 华坪县| 徐州市| 南平市| 龙门县| 杭州市| 武宣县| 乐东| 乌海市| 乡城县| 玛曲县| 乐业县|