效仿愛爾蘭

????但這只是問題的一個方面。另一方面，來自德國、中國和美國的進口商品價格遠低于意大利人和西班牙人過去購買的國產貨。廉價的進口商品大批涌入，取代了西班牙、意大利國產商品。

????歐洲南部國家的經濟泡沫破滅后，這些國家既無法通過擴大出口來恢復經濟增速，國內產業又無力與進口商品競爭。它們的產品無論是在國際市場、還是在本國市場，都顯得太昂貴了。

????歐洲南部國家正在盡自己的力量，試圖恢復一點競爭力。西班牙、意大利和希臘的利率飆升最終緩和了薪資上漲的勢頭，因此單位勞動力成本已經停止攀升。但薪資增幅的放緩還遠不足以讓這些國家恢復到歐元誕生前的經濟增速。

????南部國家已經陷入絕境。要將單位勞動力成本降至讓他們具有國際競爭力的水平，歐洲南部國家只有兩條道路。第一條是大幅降低薪資，否則就必須大幅提高生產率，出售效率低下的國有控股公司，清理限制性的勞動法規以及錯綜復雜、抑制競爭的法律法規。

????迄今為止，只有愛爾蘭是選擇了這條痛苦的道路。希臘、西班牙和意大利似乎無意跟進。它們目前沒有實施嚴厲改革，但這并不意味著歐元一定會終結。

????“我不太相信弱國退出歐元區是不可避免的結局，” 達迪什說?！八鼈兛梢詰{借減債和富國的撥款，繼續留在歐元區?！辈贿^，選擇這條道路，未來西班牙、意大利和其他國家的經濟增速將注定非常緩慢。

????第二條道路是恢復本國貨幣，選擇大部分債務違約，但經濟增速將高得多。歐元已然宣告失敗。歐元區所有成員國的最優選擇是徹底解除市場管制，享受本國貨幣的靈活性。如果歐洲南部國家選擇第一條道路，他們將永遠也不會成為富有活力的經濟體。如果他們選擇第二條道路，至少經濟還能實現增長。

????歐元區不解體，危機就不會終結，它還會持續很長時間，在未來數年給全球經濟前景蒙上陰影。長痛不如短痛。眼見前景黯淡，可能喪失出口和經濟增長能力，歐元區弱國可能最終會轉向他們現在還認為不可想象的解決方案，那就是退出這個貨幣聯盟，盡管三年前他們還視歐元為救世主。

Following Ireland's lead

????That's only half the story. German, Chinese and American imports became far cheaper than domestically produced goods that Italians and Spaniards used to buy. A flood of cheap imports replaced goods that Spain or Italy used to make at home.

????When the domestic bubbles popped in the southern tier, their nations couldn't increase exports to restore growth, and their domestic industries frequently couldn't compete with imports. Their products were simply too expensive both on world markets, and in their own shops and supermarkets.

????The southern tier is doing its part to restore a bit of competitiveness. The sharp increase in rates for Spain, Italy and Greece has finally moderated the rise in wages, so that the unit labor cost gap is no longer growing. But wage growth isn't shrinking remotely fast enough to restore anything resembling the countries' pre-euro growth rates.

????The southern countries are in a box. They have only two options to lower their unit labor costs to the level where they can compete on the world stage: They must substantially lower wages, or they must become far more productive by selling off inefficient, state-controlled companies and eliminating restrictive labor laws and a maze of anti-competitive regulations.

????So far, Ireland is the only nation that has pursued that painful course. Greece, Spain and Italy show little inclination to follow. Their failure to enact draconian reforms doesn't necessarily spell the end to the euro.

????"I'm very hesitant to say that leaving the euro is inevitable for the weaker countries," says Dadush. "They can stay in with a combination of debt relief and grants from the richer countries." That course, however, sentences Spain, Italy and the others to a future of extremely slow growth.

????The alternative is to restore their own currencies, default on a big portion of their debt, and then grow far faster. The euro has failed. The best option is for all eurozone members to radically deregulate their markets, and also enjoy the flexibility of their own currencies. Unless they do the former, they will never become vibrant economies. But if they do the latter, at least they can grow again.

????If the eurozone stays together, the crisis won't end. It will drag on a lot longer, burdening the world economy with years of uncertainty. It may be best to take the pain now. Faced with grinding, stagnant future, unable to export or grow, the weaklings may eventually warm to the solution they now brand as unthinkable, an exit from a union that just three years ago looked like their salvation.