石油：看漲

????2011年下半年油價(jià)回落是因?yàn)槿蜃畲蟮哪茉聪M(fèi)國——美國顯露出了二次探底的跡象，而歐洲的債務(wù)危機(jī)也愈演愈烈。但是，即便2012年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)依然低迷，也不太可能把油價(jià)拉低太多。

????12月份高盛預(yù)計(jì)由于原油供應(yīng)仍舊緊張，當(dāng)前約為108美元/桶的布倫特原油價(jià)格到2012年底將達(dá)到127.50美元/桶。導(dǎo)致原油供應(yīng)緊張的因素包括在可以預(yù)見的未來利比亞原油產(chǎn)量下跌、地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和其他因素。

Oil: Bull

????During the second half of 2011, oil prices slid as the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer, showed signs that it was headed for another recession amid the backdrop of a deepening debt crisis in Europe. But even if the U.S. economy continues to slog through in 2012, that's not likely going drive oil prices down much.

????In December, Goldman Sachs forecast the price for Brent oil, which is currently trading at around $108 a barrel, will reach $127.50 by end of 2012 as supply remains tight. This is partly due to Libya's loss of oil production for the foreseeable future, geopolitical risks and other factors.