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四大當家投資品種新年行情預測大碰撞

四大當家投資品種新年行情預測大碰撞

NIN-HAI TSENG 2011-12-30
隨著新年鐘聲即將敲響,我們有理由樂觀,也有理由謹慎。房產、股票、黃金、石油明年走勢如何?4個經濟指標,8種觀點:你是看漲,還是看跌?

黃金:看跌

????其他人預計黃金的輝煌時代很可能于2012年終結。雖然金價漲勢已延續了10多年,但金價未能在2011年最后幾個月創下新高。僅12月份一個月的時間,金價就下跌了11%,成為9月以來首個出現月度下跌的一個月,也是繼2008年信貸危機以來走勢最差的一個12月。

????博客Big Picture的博主巴里?里薩茲在12月15日指出,2012年黃金“可能成為全年最令人失望的投資品種”。里薩茲寫到,即便歐洲政界看起來還遠未解決其債務問題,“金價的回落已讓一些交易員們宣告了黃金牛市的終結。誰能料到這種熠熠生輝的黃色金屬會變成一堆爛鐵呢?”

Gold: Bear

????Others predict that gold's glory days could very well end in 2012. While it has rallied for more than a decade, prices of the precious metal have failed to reach new highs during the last few months of 2011. In December alone, the precious metal lost 11% of its value, putting it on track for its first monthly fall since September and its weakest December since the credit crunch of 2008.

????Barry Ritholtz, author of the Big Picture blog, noted on December 15 that gold in 2012 "could be the biggest disappointment of the year." Even though it seems European officials are far from resolving its debt problems, "the Gold pullback has some traders declaring this to be the end of the bull run. Who knew the shiny yellow metal could turn into a lump of coal?" Ritholtz writes.

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