新興市場(chǎng)有多波動(dòng)？

????任何一位有幸逃過97年亞洲金融危機(jī)那一劫的投資者可能都不愿再投資發(fā)展中國家，這也情有可原。當(dāng)年紐約和倫敦的投資經(jīng)理們敲敲鍵盤的彈指間，就將熱錢撤出了負(fù)債累累的東南亞，造成公司倒閉，投資者傾家蕩產(chǎn)。購買巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國等市場(chǎng)的股票和債券對(duì)于個(gè)人投資者仍有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，特別是因?yàn)楫?dāng)前世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處于動(dòng)蕩時(shí)期。但麥肯錫的一項(xiàng)新研究從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)角度提出了一個(gè)可能有爭(zhēng)議的觀點(diǎn)——當(dāng)前新興市場(chǎng)的資本流入要比發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定（見下圖）。為什么？海外直接投資（FDI）在新興市場(chǎng)的資本流入中占比較高。購買工廠、礦山等耐用資產(chǎn)的全球投資者在新興市場(chǎng)資本流入中的占比要高于跨國借貸、股票和債券購買。相比之下，麥肯錫的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，發(fā)達(dá)國家的國際資本流入更多是波動(dòng)性比FDI高4倍的跨國借貸。還記得上次金融危機(jī)時(shí)發(fā)生的情形嗎？對(duì)于個(gè)人投資者而言，F(xiàn)DI增加是一個(gè)風(fēng)向標(biāo)，說明全球投資者對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)具有信心。下面是資金流入的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域：

How volatile are emerging markets?

????Any investor lucky enough to have survived the Asian financial crisis of '97 can't be blamed for a reluctance to invest in the developing world. In the flick of a key, money managers in New York and London pulled hot money out of heavily indebted Southeast Asia, bankrupting companies and ruining investors. Buying stocks and bonds in markets such as Brazil, Russia, India, and China remains risky for individual investors, especially in times of world economic turmoil. Yet from a macroeconomic point of view, a new McKinsey study controversially argues that capital flows into emerging markets now are less volatile than flows into advanced economies (see chart below). Why? Emerging markets attract a higher percentage of foreign direct investment (FDI). Global investors buying stakes in durable assets like factories and mines now account for a larger proportion of capital flows into emerging markets than cross-border lending and stock and bond purchases. In the developed world, by contrast, international capital flows are weighted toward cross-border bank lending, which is up to four times more volatile than FDI, according to McKinsey. Just recall what happened during the last financial crisis. For the individual investor, growth in FDI represents a vote of confidence in a local economy. Here's where big bets are being placed: