赫斯曼策略全回報基金

????基金經理：約翰?赫斯曼

????交易代碼： HSTRX

????資產規模： 27億美元

????保守配置平均回報率： 2.2%

????今年迄今回報率： 5.8%

????目前看好的投資：礦業股

????赫斯曼預計幾年內金價還將保持高位。他一直在買進礦業公司紐蒙特礦業公司（Newmont Mining）和 阿哥尼可老鷹礦場（Agnico-Eagle Mines）的股票。

????約翰?赫斯曼不是一個激進的冒險者。他的保本策略意味著在牛市狂飆的時候，他的基金表現落后于股市。但在像2011年這樣的黑暗時期就會脫穎而出。這位49歲的前經濟學教授（他有足夠的智力在閑暇時研究孤獨癥的遺傳因素）每周發給投資者的、充滿機敏的信函擁有眾多擁躉。特別是今年1月，他躲在馬里蘭州郊區辦公室里給投資者寫了一封信，信中大致描述了他對美聯儲（Federal Reserve）所謂二次量化寬松政策的效果非常擔心。他在最后寫到，二次量化寬松“的逆向操作幾乎肯定會給美國經濟帶來嚴重的沖擊”。

????赫斯曼據此對自己的投資組合進行了相應管理。赫斯曼策略全回報基金（Hussman Strategic Total Return）是他管理的三支基金之一，主要投資美國國債。但他可以將至多30%的資產配置于貴金屬類股票、公用事業和外匯。由于黃金采礦類股的股價走勢落后于黃金現貨價格，赫斯曼增持貴金屬采礦類股至原來的13倍，賺了錢。美國國債價格的上漲也帶來了收益，但赫斯曼回避投資上漲更快的長期美國國債。他認為現在長期美國國債具有很強的投機性，利率上漲1%就可能會使這些債券的市值縮水15%。今年春季，赫斯曼曾預言股價已經達到岌岌可危的高位。8月份時他預言美國將陷入新一輪衰退，這是基于他對所跟蹤的幾十個數據的分析，包括股市點位、信貸利差、GDP增速和制造業報告等。

????目前，他有很多資金投資于期限較短的政府債券，并回避投資大多數股票。“投資者可能都有不撞南墻不回頭的傾向，”他說。“我們希望比其他人更早躲開。”

Hussman Strategic Total Return

????Manager: John Hussman

????Ticker: HSTRX

????Assets: $2.7 billion

????Conservative allocation average: 2.2%

????Year-to-date return: 5.8%

????What he likes now: Mining stocks

????Hussman expects the price of gold to stay elevated for years. He's been buying up shares of miners Newmont Mining and Agnico-Eagle Mines.

????John Hussman isn't a big risk-taker. His strategy of preserving capital means that his fund will lag behind the stock market when bull markets are raging. But in difficult years like 2011, Hussman shines. The 49-year-old former economics professor -- who has the intellectual wattage to research the genetic causes of autism in his spare time -- has also earned a following for his astute weekly letters to investors. Notably, last January he holed up in his office in suburban Maryland and wrote a letter outlining his grave concerns about the effects of the Federal Reserve's so-called QE2 stimulus program. QE2, he concluded, "is almost impossible to reverse without extreme disruption to the economy."

????Hussman has managed his portfolio accordingly. In the total return fund, one of three he manages, he invests mostly in Treasuries. But he can allocate up to 30% of assets to precious-metal stocks, utilities, and foreign currencies. With gold-mining stocks lagging the metal's spot price, Hussman increased holdings of precious-metals miners 13-fold -- and profited. A rise in Treasury prices also led to gains, though Hussman avoided faster-rising long-term Treasuries, which today he considers dangerously speculative. A 1% rise in interest rates, he warns, can wipe out 15% of their value. By spring, Hussman was calling stocks dangerously overpriced. And by August he was predicting another U.S. recession. He came to that conclusion by analyzing dozens of data points he monitors, including stock market levels, credit spreads, GDP growth, and manufacturing reports.

????For now, he's keeping a lot of money in shorter-dated government debt and avoiding most stocks. "Investors have this tendency to wait till the train is right in front of them before they move off the track," he says. "We prefer to panic before everyone else does."