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倫敦能保住全球金融中心的地位嗎?

倫敦能保住全球金融中心的地位嗎?

Katherine Ryder 2011-12-20
無論愛也好,恨也罷,英國首相卡梅倫為保護本國銀行系統而脫離歐盟的決定已經使倫敦重新成為國際關注的焦點。卡梅倫的目的很明確:在歐元區爆發債務危機之際,英國最大的挑戰就是確保倫敦金融業的盈利能力不受波及。但眼下,德國總理默克爾和法國總統薩科齊正面臨著壓力,需要彌合分歧,拯救歐洲經濟。在這個節骨眼上尋求特殊待遇,顯然稱不上精明的政治舉措。

????然而,卡梅倫這次動用否決權還有一個更深層的緣由——英國在世界上地位的不斷下降,早已讓英國政壇上下頗為不滿。英國依然擁有世界級的機構、公司和文化,但除了金融服務之外,這個擁有6,000萬人口的國家竟然拿不出任何主導性出口產品。現在似乎正形成一個共識:倘若卡梅倫同意締結“財政契約”(這個契約缺乏具體的細節,重新談判的時間或許將延續數月之久,甚至有可能持續好幾年),那么在爭取倫敦方面試圖獲得的事物時,他或許會處于一個更有利的位置。

????然而,雖然卡梅倫的這項舉動已經導致英法關系趨于緊張,但這或許只是整個危機的一個旁白而已。在鏡頭面前,默克爾、薩科齊和卡梅倫都擺出一副笑容可掬的模樣,并且在本周公開宣稱將英國納入歐盟框架之內的重要意義。這很可能代表著一個堅硬的現實:倘若歐元分崩離析,英國經濟由此承受的苦痛將遠遠大于金融監管逐漸加強對其造成的傷害。

????那么,倫敦的那些金融家們將來會怎么樣呢?

????其中的許多人已經感受到了影響。經濟和商業研究中心(Centre for Economics and Business Research)發布的報告顯示,倫敦約有2.7萬名金融從業者在今年失去了工作。鑒于這一環境,相比于對監管的擔憂,大多數人現在更加擔心的是銀行破產。

????無論歐元區發生什么情況,金融城或者說金絲雀碼頭,似乎不可能就這么凋謝下去。“倫敦填補了亞洲交易日結束后與美國交易日開始前這個時間縫隙,這是一項無可比擬的優勢,而且它還是一個使用英語的市場,”一位基金經理人說。“我今年掙的錢不如2006年多,但我還能去哪兒?”

????譯者:任文科

????Cameron's veto, however, also represents a broader source of British political discontentment—one that stems from the UK's steadily declining place in the world. England still has world-class institutions, companies, and culture, but it's a country of 60 million without any major export except financial services. A consensus now seems to be forming that if Cameron had agreed to move forward with the "fiscal compact" -- which has few concrete details and will likely continue to be renegotiated for months, if not years -- he might have been in a better position to get what London wants.

????Still, his veto, which stoked the tension between the French and the British, might prove to be an aside of this entire crisis. Merkel, Sarkozy, and Cameron all smiled for cameras and publically proclaimed this week the importance of having Britain in the EU. This may well represent the blunt reality that a dissolution of the euro would be much more painful for the British economy than incremental increases of financial regulation.

????And what does the future hold for London's bankers?

????Already, many of them have caught the hook. Around 27,000 people working in finance in London have lost their jobs this year, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Given the environment, fears of regulation now commonly play second fiddle to more fundamental fears of insolvency.

????And whatever happens in the eurozone, it seems unlikely that the City or Canary Wharf will simply fade. "London has the benefit of the end of Asia's trading day, the opening of America's trading day, and a market in English," says one fund manager. "I make less money now than I did in 2006, but where else would I go?

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