埃及：轟轟烈烈的革命

????埃及是阿拉伯之春政治經濟意義上的樣板。它是阿拉伯世界人口最多的國家，擁有最多元化的經濟和最成熟的金融機構。其他今年以來經歷了革命的北非國家要么經濟規模太小（突尼斯），要么經濟受到了重創（利比亞），近期內難以成為海外資本的理想目的地。

????埃及是中東地區最大的經濟體，相對容易吸引海外投資；相比之下，在沙特，非海灣地區的外籍人士不能直接持有公開交易的沙特公司股票。埃及股票交易所的規模或流動性也遠遠難以比肩倫敦或東京。投資管理公司Vontobel的高級分析師布萊恩?班茲瑪2010年曾經前往開羅物色潛在的投資目標。有幾家上市公司給他留下了深刻影響，但由于成交量稀少，Vontobel只能決定一家也不買。

????西方投資者們為革命歡呼雀躍，但他們尚未將埃及視為一個投資機會，主要是因為政治動蕩反過來也導致該國的經濟陷入了癱瘓。即使是在11月份示威人群和軍方爆發沖突之前，埃及的重要產業——旅游業已陷入停頓。鄰國利比亞爆發革命后，很多在利比亞石油行業工作的埃及人要么回到了埃及家中，要么不再往家里寄錢。在阿拉伯之春前早已居高不下的埃及失業率已升至約40%。

????埃及央行支持本幣和抵御通脹的努力具有副作用，受到驚嚇的投資者可結清埃及投資，匯出資金，以免遭受匯率損失。與此同時，埃及央行的外匯儲備已近用罄，外界普遍猜測今年6月曾拒絕國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）貸款的埃及央行可能會在未來數月與國際貨幣基金組織達成類似協議。

????這些都是投資者所知道的事情，但真正阻止機構投資者進入埃及的卻是大量的未知因素：控制了埃及很大一部分房地產資產的軍隊最終將在埃及國家治理體系中扮演怎樣的角色？穆斯林兄弟會的伊斯蘭教主義者以及其他政黨在大選中的表現將如何？（下院選舉11月末開始，隨后是上院選舉，2012年春季進行總統選舉。）

????紐約證券經紀公司Auerbach Grayson的中東股票主管邁克爾?達烏德表示，鑒于所有的不確定性，目前根本沒有辦法知道外國資本何時會重返埃及以及被“阿拉伯之春”帶入動蕩的中東其他地區。他對埃及的看法要比其他人樂觀得多：他跟蹤一些基本消費品公司，如在埃及牛奶和乳制品市場上占據主導地位的Juhayna Food Industries；能源產品和服務供應商Elsewedy Electric以及總部位于開羅的CIB Bank。

????不過，他并不建議外國投資者貿然購買這些公司的股票。現在還不是時候，達烏德說，在選舉計票開始前形勢不會變得明朗。

????他說：“我寧可晚一點，也不愿太早。”

Egypt: A rolling revolution

????Egypt is the test case for the Arab Spring, politically and economically. It is the Arab world's most populous country and it has the most diversified economy and most mature financial institutions. Other North African economies that have had their own revolutions this year are either too small (Tunisia) or too badly damaged (Libya) to be candidates for much outside investment any time soon.

????Egypt is the largest Middle Eastern economy where it is comparatively easy for outsiders to invest; in Saudi Arabia, by contrast, foreigners from outside the Gulf cannot directly own publically traded Saudi equities. Not that the Egyptian stock exchange is anywhere as large or liquid as London or Tokyo's. Brian Bandsma, a senior analyst with the investment management firm Vontobel, went to Cairo to scope out possible investments in 2010. He saw a few public companies that impressed him but the firm decided not to buy any of them because they were too thinly traded.

????Western investors, who cheered the revolution, have yet to embrace Egypt as an investment opportunity, largely because of political uncertainty that is, in turn, paralyzing the country's economy. Even before clashes between protestors and the army broke out in November, tourism, a crucial industry, had ground to a halt. When revolution broke out in neighboring Libya, the many Egyptians who worked in that country's oil industry either came home or stopped sending money to their families. Egyptian unemployment, already high before the Arab Spring, has risen to about 40%.

????Efforts by the Egyptian Central Bank to support the Egyptian pound and head off inflation had the side effect of making it possible for skittish investors to liquidate their Egyptian investments and take their money out of the country without getting killed on the exchange rate. Meanwhile, the bank's reserves have been nearly depleted and it was widely expected that Egypt, which rejected an International Monetary Fund loan in June, would have to make some kind of deal with the IMF within the next few months.

????And those are the things investors know about; what's really keeping institutions out of Egypt are countless unknown factors: What role will the military, which controls a sizable chunk of the country's real estate, ultimately play in the governing of Egypt? How will the Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood and other parties fare in major elections? (Elections for the lower house of parliament began in late November to be followed by elections for the upper house and for a new president in spring 2012.)

????Michael Daoud, head of Middle East equities at Auerbach Grayson, a New York brokerage specializing in the Middle East, says given all the uncertainty there's just no way to know when foreign capital will return to Egypt and other parts of the region that have been thrust into turmoil by the Arab Spring. He's more bullish on Egypt than many: he is tracking stable companies such as Juhayna Food Industries, which dominates the Egyptian market for milk and dairy products; energy products and services supplier Elsewedy Electric, and Cairo-based CIB Bank.

????Still, he can't recommend that an interested foreign investor rush out and buy stakes in those companies. Not now, Daoud says. Things won't start to get clearer until the election returns start to come in.

????"I'd rather be a little late," he says, "than too early."