押注石油，還是人口？

????對于仍留在這個地區的、勇敢的投資者們，他們在MENA國家的投資要么是押注于海灣國家（沙特、阿曼、卡塔爾、科威特、巴林和阿聯酋）主產的石油和天然氣價格，要么是押注于人口更稠密的北非國家未來的人口結構趨勢——摩洛哥、阿爾及利亞、突尼斯、利比亞、埃及、蘇丹、黎巴嫩、敘利亞和約旦，這些國家中有幾個（如埃及）是石油凈進口國。

????世界銀行（World Bank）現預計MENA地區2011年將增長3.6%，主要得益于海灣地區產油大國的經濟增長。（在突尼斯和埃及長期執政的政府倒臺以前，世界銀行的預測經濟增速是5%。）阿聯酋迪拜一家金融咨詢公司Isthmus Partners的合伙人哈維爾?切爾維諾表示，過去一年左右海灣經濟已經企穩。沙特和阿聯酋的房地產投資已企穩，電信公司，像沙特的Mobily和卡塔爾的Qtel近來表現不錯。“在我們看來，敘利亞和埃及發生的事情很遙遠，就跟遠在紐約的人看這兩個國家一樣，”切爾維諾補充稱。他說，相反倒是巴林不那么劇烈的、但持續不斷的政治沖突對于海灣投資者而言更為緊迫。

????投資北非國家的依據是它們龐大、年輕以及（很多地方）教育程度良好的人口。這么龐大的工人、消費者和企業家群體需要就業和收入來滿足個人和家庭支出需要。這就意味著經濟增長，對資本投資者而言則意味著機會，當然，前提是投資者愿意承擔投資“前沿”市場的風險，因為其中很多市場可能還沒有出現股票交易所，也可能缺乏可信賴的法律體系。

????重大的問題是長期以來主導阿拉伯政壇的獨裁者和君主們不想放棄對所在國家政治或經濟的控制，盡管他們在過去幾年采取了經濟自由化舉措。難以數計官僚和官員們同樣不愿意，因為他們不想放棄從商人們那里獲得的回扣和好處。事實上，“阿拉伯之春”的導火索之一就是一位美國外交官在一份遭到泄露的外交電報中稱，突尼斯“似乎一半的”商界精英都是總統本?阿里的家族成員。一旦政府系統老邁的官僚們再也無力為本國百姓提供公共部門工作機會和福利而垮臺后，真正意義上的阿拉伯之春就開始了。

A bet on oil or on people?

????For the hardy investors who have stayed in the region, their investments in MENA countries boil down to either a bet on the price of oil and natural gas produced mainly by the Persian Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates), or a bet on the demographics of the more densely populated countries of north Africa – Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan, several of which (Egypt, for instance) are net oil importers.

????The World Bank expects the MENA region to grow 3.6% in 2011, mostly from gains by big oil producers of the Gulf. (Before the fall of longtime governments in Tunisia and Egypt the World Bank had predicted 5% growth.) Javier Cervino, a partner in Isthmus Partners, a financial consultancy in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, says the Gulf economy has stabilized over the last year or so. Real estate investment in Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. has stabilized and telecoms like Saudi Arabia's Mobily and Qatar's Qtel have done well lately. "From our point of view the events in Syria and Egypt seem as far away as they would to someone in New York," Cervino adds. Less explosive but still simmering political conflict in Bahrain, he says, was more urgent to Gulf investors.

????The investment argument for the North African countries is based on their large, youthful and in many places well-educated populations. This huge pool of workers, consumers and entrepreneurs wants jobs and income to spend on themselves and their families. That means economic growth and thus opportunity for investors who can supply the capital -- and are willing to take the risks that come with investing in "frontier" markets, many of which lack stock exchanges or trustworthy legal systems.

????The big problem is that the despots and monarchs who have long dominated Arab politics (recent moves toward economic liberalization over the last few years aside) don't want to give up either political or economic control of their countries. Neither do the countless bureaucrats and officials who rely on payoffs and kickbacks from business people. One of the initial sparks for the Arab Spring was the leak of a cable in which a U.S. diplomat commented that "seemingly half " the business elite of Tunisia were members of President Ben Ali's family. The Arab Spring began in earnest when the old politics of governments being able to buy off their populations with public sector jobs and subsidies finally collapsed.