全球央行聯手也拯救不了歐元
????債務危機重創歐洲經濟,創口血如泉涌,歐洲領導人卻只能眼睜睜地看著之前貼在傷口上的創可貼開始慢慢脫落。由于無法擴容至必需的規模,歐洲最大的救助基金、高達4,400億歐元的歐洲金融穩定基金(European Financial Stability Facility)昨晚最終宣告無法為歐元區帶來穩定,最大的一塊創可貼也正式失效。基金負責人號召歐洲央行(European Central Bank)出臺更多措施以穩定形勢,不言而喻,這顯然是在推卸責任。 ????在美聯儲(US Federal Reserve)的牽頭下,歐洲六大央行聯手出招,將現有臨時美元流動性互換安排的定價下調50個基點。然而,這一聯合行動看起來不過是另外一張創可貼。雖然此番聯合救市會降低歐洲銀行的美元融資成本,也會令部分歐元區成員國不斷攀升的債券收益率有所下降,但卻解決不了根本問題。救市效果不會長久,也無法解決困擾歐元區的結構性財政問題。而且,這并不是各國央行第一次在金融危機中采取聯合行動。根據以往的經驗來判斷,當市場發現根本問題并未解決之后,救市推動的市場上漲通常都是曇花一現。 ????現在,解決歐洲債務危機似乎只有兩種選擇:一是歐洲央行充當整個歐元區的最后貸款人,二是將該地區成員國的債務集中起來,統一發行“歐洲債券”。 ????從中短期來看,歐洲央行充當最后貸款人顯然是解決債務危機最簡單、最迅速的方法,但它不能解決歐元的核心問題,即財政一體化的缺失。而發行統一的歐洲債券需要一體化的財政,只有這樣才可能解決核心問題。然而,歐洲各國的領導人是否愿意、或者說確實已經走投無路,只能把財政大權拱手交給歐盟?要知道,財政大權可以說是他們最重要的權力。 ????關于如何發行歐洲債券,目前有幾種方案。歐洲部分國家希望歐洲債券完全取代歐洲大陸所有的主權債務,這樣一來融資風險就可以分散到歐元區全部17個成員國身上。但在這種情況下,意大利和希臘等高負債國家的借款利率會就從記錄高點下降,而德國和荷蘭等財政穩健國家的融資成本則會上升。 ????這種局面對德國人來說有失公平,所以他們始終拒絕有關發行歐洲債券的任何對話。德國人認為,迫使他們勒緊腰帶的唯一因素就是奢侈成員國(過度奢侈導致財政失衡,債臺高筑---譯注)的利率壓力。不過,如果這些國家愿意把財政權交給歐盟,同時實施類似德國的平衡預算方案,最終德國似乎也愿意承擔發行歐洲債券對融資成本造成的沖擊。 ????歐元區有關統一財政和貨幣政策的想法似乎能夠最終縫合歐洲不斷惡化的債務危機創傷,同時增強該地區的團結。但是,歐洲債券只不過體現這一想法的工具,而并非解決方案。即便如此,歐洲領導人仍對此猶豫不決。大量現有的歐洲債券構成方案看起來更像是創可貼式的權宜之計,而不是手術式的最終縫合。 |
????European leaders are watching the Band-Aids they stuck on the eurozone's gushing wound of debt start to peel off. The largest attempted fix, the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility, finally fell off last night, after the fund announced that it would not be able to lever up to a level that could actually bring stability to the eurozone. The head of the EFSF called on the European Central Bank to do more to stabilize the situation, ostensibly passing the buck. ????Today's coordinated action by the central banks of developed nations, led by the US Federal Reserve, to lower the pricing on existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points, looks like yet another Band-Aid. While this will make it cheaper for European banks to access critical dollar funding, and it will lower skyrocketing bond yields of some eurozone nations, it isn't a solution to the problem. The effects are temporary and do not address the structural fiscal problems plaguing the eurozone. And this isn't the first time there has been coordinated action between central banks during the financial crisis. The subsequent market rallies that accompany such moves usually fizzle out after it becomes clear that the root of the problem still exists. ????Solving the European crisis seems to have devolved into a binary choice whereby either the European Central Bank becomes the lender of last resort for the entire eurozone or the zone's nations pool their debt and issues joint "eurobonds." ????The ECB choice is clearly the easiest and fastest way to put an end to this crisis in the short to medium term, but it doesn't solve the common currency's core problem -- its lack of fiscal integration. The issuance of a common debt instrument would require such fiscal integration, ostensibly extinguishing the core problem. But are European politicians ready, or indeed desperate enough, to hand over the power of the purse, arguably their greatest power, to bureaucrats in Brussels? ????There are several proposals floating about as to how the eurobond could become a reality. There are constituents in Europe that want the eurobond to totally replace all sovereign debt in the continent, therefore spreading out the funding risk to all 17 members of the euro. This would see the borrowing rates of deeply indebted nations, like Italy and Greece, drop from their record highs, while countries with strong balance sheets, like Germany and the Netherlands, would see their rates rise. ????Such a scenario seems unfair to the Germans, which have repeatedly blocked any talk of issuing eurobonds. They believe that the interest rate pressure on profligate nations is the only thing that is forcing them to actually tighten their belts. But the Germans finally seem open to taking a hit in interest rates if those nations give up their fiscal authority to the EU and take on a German-like balanced budget solution. ????This idea of melding the eurozone's fiscal and monetary policies seems to be the stitch that will finally seal Europe's growing debt wound and bind the continent together. The eurobond is simply the vehicle by which this idea is manifested, it isn't the solution. But European leaders are still hesitant to give in. There are a number of eurobond structures floating about that seem to be more Band-Aid than stitch. |