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風投公司的隨大流效應

風投公司的隨大流效應

Larry Cheng 2011年11月25日
一群聰明又有經驗的專業投資人士達成的共識為什么總是不對呢?

????1. 自問 – 分歧意見有沒有可能是正確的?聆聽并充分理解異見者的想法,特別是如果他/她是屋子里唯一的反對聲音。充分思考這些觀點,因為這很可能是正確意見。要給予重視。

????2. 自問 – 多數人的意見會不會是錯的?我們的意見有沒有經過充分的批判性分析?我們的觀點所依托的假設是不是沒有經過充分的檢驗或調研?謙虛些,不要太高看自己的觀點。

????真正理解多數人的意見和分歧意見各對在哪里、錯在哪里之前,應該堅持強烈的懷疑態度。簡單而行之有效的檢測方法是不管你本人持有的是多數意見還是少數意見,看看自己能不能同樣有理有據地捍衛這兩種不同的意見。

????頂級風投合伙企業都深知這一點,決策時會考慮這個問題。我曾經工作過的一家公司所有交易都會指派一位持異見的合伙人。另一家公司則總是允許個人推進交易,不要求所有合伙人達成一致。雖然合伙模式最終可能免不了有趨同思維,但說到底這不一定非得是決定性因素,合伙制企業也不應讓其成為決定性因素。

????Larry Cheng (@larryvc) 是總部位于波士頓的風險投資公司Volition Capital的合伙人。他的個人博客地址是Thinking About Thinking.

????1. Ask yourself – could the dissenting opinion be right? Listen to and fully understand the point of view of the person expressing a dissenting opinion, especially if that person is the sole voice in the room. Fully consider their point of view as it may very well be the right one. Give it weight in your mind.

????2. Ask yourself – could your majority opinion be wrong? Have you arrived at your opinion without sufficient critical analysis? Are you basing your position on assumptions that you presume to be true, but that perhaps are not sufficiently tested or researched? Be humble, don't think too highly of your own point of view.

????Until you've understood how your majority opinion could be wrong, you should strongly question whether your opinion is right. Until you've understood how a dissenting opinion could be right, you should strongly question whether it is wrong. A great and simple test is whether you can argue both the majority and dissenting opinion well – irrespective of which one you hold.

????The best venture partnerships understand this dynamic and take it into account in their decision-making. One firm I used to work at mandated a dissenting partner on all deals. Another firm always allowed for a single champion to carry a deal through rather than requiring partnership consensus. While groupthink may ultimately exist within the partnership model, it doesn't have to be nor should partnerships let it be the deciding factor at the end of the day.

????Larry Cheng (@larryvc) is a partner with Boston-based VC firm Volition Capital. He blogs atThinking About Thinking.

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