????少數往往服從多數，但這并不意味著多數人的意見就一定正確。

????最有說服力的一個例子來自我曾經工作過的一家頂級風投公司。該公司允許投資團隊在公司參與的每輪融資中進行個人自主投資。可以不參與投資，可以“頂格投資”，也可以介于兩者之間。根據員工在公司中的級別，每輪可投入資金設定一個上限。

????最有意思的是每輪融資結束后，他們會向整個投資團隊公布每個人在這一輪融資中的自主投資額。要判斷一個人對一項投資怎么看，最好的辦法莫過于看他/她的個人投資開出了多大的支票。這是整個投資討論中最沒辦法騙人的環節。當然，有些投資項目是公司里所有人都會用足個人投資上限（即“全票上限情形”）。同樣，也有些項目除了項目主導人外，幾乎無人參與（即“近零”情形）。這些投資決定往往基于私下的討論，員工之間會互相探討每項投資他們打算投入多少———通常很少是單獨做出的決定。

????多次親眼見證這類個人投資以后，我有些意外的發現。凡出現全票上限情形，說明一項投資可能會失敗。如果每個人都喜歡這項交易，愿意加入個人投資，這個項目很可能不會成功。事實上，此類項目往往很快就會失敗。反之，情形也驚人的相似。凡出現近零情形，一項投資往往會成功——有時甚至是巨大的成功。在我曾經工作過的其他公司，也有類似的實驗，結果總是如此，不管是什么經濟時期、投資項目或公司。

????The majority often rules, but that doesn't mean the majority is right.

????The most poignant example comes from a premier venture capital firm I once worked for. One of the opportunities it gave its investment professionals was to invest personally and on a discretionary basis in each round of each financing the firm participated in. You didn't have to invest, or you could "max out," or you could do anything in between. There was a maximum amount you could put into each round based on your level in the firm.

????Most interestingly, after each financing round closed, they would publish to the entire investment team how much each person invested for their discretionary investment in that round. There is no better way to tell how a person feels about an investment than to see the size of their personal check. It was the most honest moment of the entire investment discussion. There were certainly cases when everyone in the firm maxed out their personal investment (e.g. the "max out scenario"). And, there was a similar frequency of cases when nearly everyone didn't participate except the individual partner sponsoring the deal (e.g. the "zero out" scenario). These decisions were always made after individuals would talk to each other behind the scenes to discuss how much they were going to put into each investment – they were rarely made in isolation.

????What I learned from watching these personal investment decisions made over and over again was somewhat surprising. A great predictor of failure for an investment was when the max out scenario took place. If everyone loved a deal and backed up the truck on their personal investment, it was more than likely to not succeed. In fact, those deals often failed in quick fashion. The inverse was surprisingly true as well. More often than not, for those investments where the zero out scenario took place, they often became successes – sometimes the biggest successes. At the other firms I have worked at, various forms of this experiment have taken place and this observation holds true through different economic times, different investments, and different firms.