????惠普（Hewlett-Packard）看起來就像走了另一個極端的蘋果。由于管理不善，惠普股價今年下跌了35%，只是在最近才稍有回彈。相比之下，盡管喬幫主逝世，CEO換帥，但蘋果的股價今年還是飆升了25%。惠普在平板電腦市場無功而返，而蘋果的iPad卻仍然賣得異常火爆。許多手握數以十億計美元的投資機構似乎已經放棄了惠普，但他們對蘋果的未來卻抱有十足的信心。因此現在蘋果已經成了全球市值最高的公司，超過了埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）的兩倍。

????如果我說眼下咱們先忽視蘋果一會兒，再給惠普的股票一次機會，你會不會覺得我在散布異端邪說？但有些價值型投資者就是這么說的。上個月他們有了更多的證據來支持自己的觀點。比如伯恩斯坦公司（Bernstein）的分析師托尼?薩克納西，他對蘋果公司的預測經常成為媒體頭條。惠普的股價從49美元跌到22美元后，薩克納西做了一番數據研究，發現惠普的股價十分便宜，甚至差不多是歷史上最便宜的。它的股價僅為未來12個月預期收益的5.5倍。自從1990年以來，還從來沒有哪個大型科技公司的股票達到或低于這個水平——除了近期同樣萎靡不振的黑莓手機制造商RIM。

????《財富》雜志（Fortune）在11月7號的雜志中首次刊登了這個消息。此后，惠普的股價已升至28美元，上漲了22%。不過有些價值型投資者卻認為，惠普的股價至少可以增長到40美元區間。

????投資者對惠普的失望不難理解。自從前CEO李艾科上任以來，惠普連續三次調低了銷售預期。后來惠普推出了自己的WebOS移動操作系統和一些搭載了該系統的相關設備，同時興奮地大談特談它們的發展潛力；然而才過了半年，這些設備就夭折了。然后在今年八月，李艾科宣布惠普斥資100億美元收購了軟件制造商Autonomy，在某些投資者看來，這筆交易的價格實在高得有些離譜。后來李艾科又宣布惠普打算剝離市值410億美元的PC業務。好在上周惠普改變了主意，終于讓華爾街歡呼雀躍了一回。

????李艾科的繼任者梅格?惠特曼是否勝任CEO一職尚無定論。惠特曼曾任eBay首席執行官，但eBay只有15,000多名員工，而且eBay的業務是面向消費者的業務；惠普員工多達32萬人，而且它的業務主要是面向企業，因此許多分析師都懷疑她是否能夠挑起這個重擔。

????不過有些正在買入惠普股票的價值型投資者卻認為這個問題可能并不重要。比如經驗老道的投資者沃利?威茨就認為，雖然從目前的股價來看，市場都說惠普已經破產了，但是在他看來，惠普盡管受到重創，但它仍是一個堅實可靠的科技巨頭，在打印機和服務領域也有堅實的循環現金流。威茨說：“讓我們稍微感到欣慰的是，惠普的一些個別業務是好的，至少是比較不錯的。”他在九月底買入了惠普的股份，賭定股市一定會出現過度反應。

????Hewlett-Packard looks like Apple's polar opposite. HP's stock is down 35% this year, despite a recent bump, thanks to horrendous management; Apple's shares shot up 25% amid a CEO change. HP failed to create a hit tablet; Apple's iPad is still selling like crazy. And institutional investors who control billions seem to have given up on HP while those same investors believe enough in Apple's future to make it the world's most valuable company -- worth more than even Exxon Mobil (XOM).

????So is it heretical to suggest that you ignore Apple (AAPL) for the moment and give HP (HPQ) shares another shot? That's what some value investors are saying. And last month they got more ammunition. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, who usually grabs headlines for his Apple forecasts, did some number crunching after HP's shares fell from $49 to $22 and found that HP is cheap -- like historically cheap. It's trading at 5.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months. No large technology stock -- other than that of reeling Blackberry-maker RIM (RIMM) -- has traded at that level or below since 1990.

????Fortune first reported this story in its Nov. 7th issue. Since then, HP's stock has jumped 22% to $28. But these value investors still see a stock than can at least grow into the $40s.

????Investors' frustration with HP is pretty easy to dissect. Since former CEO Leo Apotheker took over last November, the company lowered sales forecasts three times. It killed devices for its mobile operating system half a year after excitedly talking up their possibilities. Then in August, Apotheker announced HP's $10 billion acquisition of software-maker Autonomy that seemed a little too rich to some investors. He followed it up with news that HP was exploring a spinoff of its $41-billion PC business. Which was finally reversed last week, to Wall Street cheers.

????Whether his replacement Meg Whitman is the right fit is anybody's guess. Analysts have wondered whether Whitman, who as CEO of eBay (EBAY) managed the site's 15,000 employees and its consumer-focused business, can lead HP's 320,000 employees and the enterprise-focused company.

????The value investors buying HP stock say it may not matter. Veteran Wally Weitz thinks at its current share price, the market is saying HP is broken. He sees a solid, albeit banged-up, tech giant with solid recurring cash flows in printers and services. "We've tried to get comfort that the individual businesses are good or at least pretty good," says Weitz. He bought shares in late September, betting on a market overreaction.