????我們不妨回顧一下。TALF鼓勵人們投資那些看上去依然健康、但沒人愿意觸碰的證券化資產(chǎn)，如優(yōu)質的AAA級資產(chǎn)抵押證券。政府為第一部分虧損提供擔保，鼓勵私人投資者重返市場。而PPIP則是鼓勵投資者買下銀行資產(chǎn)負債表上的所有問題資產(chǎn)，并為此提供所需資金額約85%的貸款。兩項計劃都是通過政府激勵，吸引私營部門參與到救助活動中來，從而強化美國救助基金TARP的效力。

????歐洲人提出的方案與美國的這兩項計劃相仿。一是設立一個特殊目的投資工具（SPIV），幫助基金買入資產(chǎn)——就此而言，這些資產(chǎn)可能是優(yōu)質主權債券（即意大利和西班牙）。另一項提議則類似于保單，EFSF為主權違約相關的首個20%損失提供擔保，創(chuàng)造出準主權信用違約互換（CDS）。同樣也是通過鼓勵私人投資，加強救助基金的效力。

????歐洲人效法美國人的想法是對的，但他們設計的執(zhí)行結構卻存在根本缺陷。TALF和PPIP確實推動了美國經(jīng)濟重拾活力，因為投資者們知道他們投入金融體系的所有錢事實上都有美國財政部（the U.S. Treasury）和美聯(lián)儲（the Federal Reserve）的資金擔保。這讓他們有信心打開腰包，參與到政府的救助項目中來。

????但在歐洲的計劃中，唯一的后盾是EFSF的本金。美國財政部有收入流，美聯(lián)儲有基本上無限的印鈔能力，而EFSF的現(xiàn)金池則設定為4,400億歐元，不能逾越。這樣的規(guī)模不太可能在投資者中激發(fā)起必要的信心，讓他們重新投身于歐洲主權債券市場，也無法鼓勵銀行增加放貸。

????歐洲人的計劃要想取得成功，EFSF需要有歐洲央行（the European Central Bank）的支持。歐洲央行是否準備投入足夠的彈藥是完成整個拼圖的關鍵一環(huán)。如果投資者們知道歐洲央行愿意在危難時刻向金融體系注入充足的現(xiàn)金，那么他們愿意參與歐元區(qū)救助的可能性就會高很多。問題是歐洲央行已拒絕出手，而且一些成員國，比如德國，也不想押上自己的資產(chǎn)負債表來支持EFSF。

????歐洲的債務危機肯定沒有速效藥。但這也不是眼下急需的。類似TALF和PPIP這樣的計劃當時也沒有解決美國的次貸問題，但時至今日，它們?nèi)匀槐灰暈槿〉昧顺晒?。這是因為它們幫助化解了當時更為緊迫的、可能令美國整個銀行體系崩潰的信心危機。

????歐洲人需要先滅火，再談重建。目前提出的計劃就好像是水龍帶，但現(xiàn)在還沒有足夠的水能將火勢完全撲滅。而時間已經(jīng)不多。

????Here's a refresher. TALF set out to encourage investment in securitized assets that were seen as sound but that no one wanted to touch, like high quality triple-A asset-backed securities. The government would guarantee the first portion of losses to encourage private investors to jump back in the market. PPIP set out to encourage investors to buy up troubled assets off the banks' balance sheet by essentially loaning them around 85% of the money to do it. Both programs had the effect of augmenting the firepower of the U.S. bailout fund, known as TARP, by having the private sector help with rescue efforts with government incentives.

????The European proposals are similar to these programs. One would create a special purpose investment vehicle to help fund asset purchases -- in this case, presumably, high-quality sovereigns (i.e. Italy and Spain). The other would act like an insurance policy in which the EFSF would guarantee the first 20% of losses associated with a sovereign default, creating a quasi sovereign credit default swap. This expands the firepower of the bailout fund by again enlisting private investment.

????The Europeans have got the right idea in copying these programs, but the structure they have set up for its implementation is fundamentally flawed. TALF and PPIP worked to get the U.S. economy going again because investors knew whatever money they put in the system was essentially being backed by the firepower of both the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. This gave them the confidence to open up their wallets to help augment the government's bailout program.

????But under the European plan, the only backstop is the principal in the EFSF. Unlike the Fed and the Treasury, which have revenue streams and basically unlimited money printing powers, the EFSF's pool of cash is set at 440 billion euros and cannot grow. That is unlikely to spur the confidence necessary to get investors to jump start the European sovereign bond markets and encourage banks to increase lending.

????For the European plan to work, the EFSF needs to be backed by the European Central Bank. The firepower of the ECB is the key to this entire puzzle. Investors will be far more likely to commit to helping the euro zone if they knew that the ECB was ready to flood the system with cash if there is a problem. Trouble is, the ECB has refused to help, and countries, like Germany, do not want them to lend their balance sheet out to back up the EFSF.

????To be sure, there are no quick fixes to Europe's debt woes. But that is not what needs to happen right now. Programs like TALF and PPIP, for example, didn't fix the U.S. mortgage problem, but they are still viewed as being successful. That's because they helped end the more pressing crisis of confidence, which was threatening to take down the entire U.S. banking system.

????The Europeans need to put out the fire before they rebuild their house. While the proposed plan gives them the hose to fight the fire, there still isn't enough water to put it out completely. Time is running out.