????當今發達世界面臨著一個左右為難的尷尬境地：寬松信貸可以解決金融問題，但同時也會導致金融問題。歐洲領導人峰會周三商討如何應對希臘（以及意大利和西班牙）財政危機時就將面臨這個兩難的選擇。的確需要投入更多的資金才能讓市場相信，一切都會好起來。但這能解決問題嗎？還是只是權宜之計？

????野村資本（Nomura Capital）上周發布的研究報告稱，預計歐盟領導人將加快推出歐洲穩定機制（European Stabilization Mechanism，ESM）來取代現有的歐洲金融穩定基金（European Financial Stability Facility，EFSF）。這些拗口的名詞主要涉及歐盟如何管理其賬目。而實際結果將是處于金融困境的歐盟成員國將獲得1.3萬億美元（9,400億歐元）的巨額放貸能力，遠高于歐洲金融穩定基金尚未確定的4,000億美元（額外的2,000億美元早已分發，在愛爾蘭和葡萄牙取得了良好成效，但希臘的效果并不如人意）。新舉措或許能讓市場相信，歐盟仍然有充足的資本，歐元區經濟疲弱的國家盡管深陷困境，但問題仍能得到控制；但長遠看它只會加深當前所有西方經濟體都面臨的一個更重大的問題：債務超級周期。

????債務超級周期一詞近年來流行于政府決策層。這一概念最早是2007年由BCA Research首先提出，這家銀行業獨立研究機構的名字時常出現在各國央行行長收件箱的首列。債務超級周期的概念很簡單：有效的經濟政策需要赤字支出和刺激性措施來阻止金融危機、恢復經濟增長；但如果這么做，就會為未來更大的泡沫破滅埋下伏筆。

????最典型的例子是上世紀90年代初，當時用低利率來應對儲貸危機。寬松的流動性助長了互聯網泡沫的膨脹。后來為應對互聯網泡沫破滅，政府運用了更為寬松的貨幣政策，但這也為樓市及相關衍生品泡沫的膨脹和破滅埋下了禍根。問題是被迫日漸升級的應對方案意味著，終有一天這個經濟體將再也無力發行足夠的債務來刺激經濟增長，因為它已背負了過多的債務。

????擺在我們面前的一個重大問題是：情況要發展到什么水平，債務超級周期將不得不宣告終結？大多數經濟學家和政策制定者們認為，債務/GDP比率達到100%后經濟將變得不可持續：從歷史上看，超過這一水平會被視為將進入長期、緩慢的經濟下滑和政治倒退（大英帝國，我可看著你呢。）。

????更近一點的例子是債務/GDP比率高達226%、數十年來經濟停滯的日本。一些經濟學家認為，日本的大部分債務都由國人持有，在某種程度上緩和了高負債帶來的壓力（就像右手欠左手錢——歸根結底，錢還是在你的手里。）希臘和意大利的債務/GDP比率雖然比日本低約100個百分點，但大部分債務都不是由本國持有。根據最新統計數據，當前歐元區整體的債務/GDP比率為85%，增加1萬億美元的救助資金將使該比率立即上升至94%。

????毫無疑問，如果我們想避免全球金融市場災難重演，歐盟必須采取行動，使希臘債務更加可控。也許這次還能成功。但下一次泡沫危機來襲時，我們還會有轉圜的余地嗎？

????Here's the paradox the developed world faces today: easy credit is the solution to financial problems, and easy credit is the source of financial problems. This is the dilemma European leaders face when aiming to manage the terrible fiscal problems of Greece (and Italy and Spain) at their summit Wednesday. More money is needed to assure the markets everything will be okay, but will that solve the problem or just push out the pain?

????In its research note last week, Nomura Capital said it expects EU leaders to accelerate the introduction of the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) to replace the current European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). This alphabet soup mainly had to do with how the EU manages its books. The practical result, though, will be a massive fund of $1.3 trillion (940 million euro) in lending power to throw at weak EU member financial troubles, far more than the $400 billion funds currently uncommitted in the EFSF (an additional $200 billion has already been doled out with decent results to Ireland and Portugal, and not so effectively to Greece). This likely will assure markets there is enough capital to contain the problems in the weaker euro countries, but it only adds to a greater problem all the Western economies are facing: the debt supercycle.

????The debt supercycle is an idea that has been knocking around policy circles for the a few years, since it was first elucidated in 2007 by BCA Research, an independent banking research firm that often finds itself at the top of central banker inboxes. The debt supercycle is a simple idea: Sound economic policy requires deficit spending and stimulus efforts to stop financial crises and restore economic growth. But in doing so, it lays the groundwork for even bigger bust later on.

????The prime example was seen in the early 1990s, when the S&L crisis was countered with low interest rates. The easy money from that helped spark the dot-com boom. Even looser monetary policy was used to counter the dot-com bust, but lay the groundwork for the housing and related-derivatives boom and bust. A problem is that increasingly larger responses mean at some point at an economy just can't issue enough debt reflate its economy because there is already too much debt.

????The big question: where is that level where the debt supercycle must end? Most economists and policymakers see the 100% level of debt-to-GDP as the line where economies become unsustainable: historically, rising above this level is seen as sparking a long, slow economic and political descent (I'm looking at you, British Empire).

????A more current example is Japan, with 226% of debt to GDP and its decades-long stagnation. Some economists argue that high level is mitigated somewhat by the fact most Japanese debt is owned by Japanese (think of it as your right hand owing your left hand money -- ultimately, you'll still have that money.) Greece and Italy are about 100 percentage points below Japan's level but much of that is owed outside the country. The euro zone as a whole is at 85% debt to GDP right now, and adding a trillion dollars in bailout funds immediately raises that to 94% judging by latest statistics.

????There's little doubt that if we want to avoid another world financial market apocalypse the EU has to do something to make Greek debt more manageable. And it may work now. But will there be wiggle room to tackle the next bubble?