????失敗并非壞事。沒錯(cuò)，失敗讓人不好受，但失敗和徹底調(diào)整適應(yīng)能讓人迎來更大的成功。因撰寫哈利?波特（Harry Potter）系列而成為億萬富翁的作家喬安妮?凱瑟琳?羅琳2008年在哈佛大學(xué)（Harvard）的畢業(yè)演講中智慧地總結(jié)了失敗的益處，她說：

????“我為什么要談失敗的益處？很簡(jiǎn)單，因?yàn)槭∫馕吨蕹切┎⒉恢匾臇|西。我不再欺騙自己，我就是我，我開始集中所有精力，來完成唯一對(duì)我具有重要意義的事情。”

????聯(lián)系到歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)，破產(chǎn)作為解決方案從未得到過認(rèn)真考慮。幾乎所有歐盟官員和發(fā)言人提出的主要解決方案都是繼續(xù)支持和推進(jìn)一個(gè)破碎的銀行體系和失靈的貨幣聯(lián)盟。其實(shí)，還存在其他可能性，比如如果不能清理負(fù)債，不妨讓希臘宣告破產(chǎn)，讓其他主權(quán)國(guó)家宣告破產(chǎn)，讓深陷其中的銀行破產(chǎn)。

????將意大利、葡萄牙和愛爾蘭現(xiàn)如今的信貸違約掉期（CDS）與2011年7月1日進(jìn)行對(duì)比，便能在一定程度上說明選擇破產(chǎn)策略的必要性。我們可以看到意大利掉期增長(zhǎng)140%，葡萄牙增長(zhǎng)38.2%，愛爾蘭減少3.2%。公平地說，愛爾蘭還沒有破產(chǎn)，但它最大的三家銀行Allied Irish、Irish Life & Permanent和Bank of Ireland已經(jīng)歷過“信貸事件”，而且愛爾蘭的信貸質(zhì)量因此有所改善。

????股市操作者面臨的另一個(gè)更緊迫的問題是：當(dāng)前的股市反彈會(huì)失敗嗎？近期股市的關(guān)鍵推動(dòng)因素可能是公司業(yè)績(jī)。為保持積極的股價(jià)態(tài)勢(shì)，上市公司需要實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利預(yù)期，維持未來業(yè)績(jī)指導(dǎo)值。彭博社（Bloomberg）的統(tǒng)計(jì)顯示，市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)計(jì)2012年標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）每股收益為106.15美元，同比增長(zhǎng)16%。

????當(dāng)然，實(shí)現(xiàn)這樣的盈利增長(zhǎng)是有可能的，但它高度依賴經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。目前，我們的預(yù)測(cè)是2012年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將低于1.0%。過去30年美國(guó)GDP增速有5年為1%或更低。這5年中標(biāo)普500指數(shù)每股收益平均同比下降18.3%。因此，除非美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)加速，要實(shí)現(xiàn)16%的收益同比增幅可能性很小。假定美國(guó)投資公司Hedgeye對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的觀點(diǎn)正確，當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)普遍預(yù)期的2012年盈利增幅存在很大下調(diào)空間。歷史告訴我們，正如前述，2012年盈利預(yù)期可能至少偏高了1/3。

????Failure is not a bad thing. Sure, losing or failing doesn't give you the warm fuzzies inside, but failing and adapting ultimately sets you up for greater success. In a 2008 commencement address to Harvard, author J.K. Rowling, who made a billion dollars for her Harry Potter series, adroitly summed up the benefits of failing when she said:

????"So why do I talk about the benefits of failure? Simply because failure meant a stripping away of the inessential. I stopped pretending to myself that I was anything other than what I was, and began to direct all my energy into finishing the only work that mattered to me."

????As it relates to Europe sovereign debt, the one solution that has not been seriously considered is failure. Instead, the key solution from almost every Eurocrat and talking head, is to continue to support and promote a broken banking system and failed monetary union. There are other possibilities: let Greece fail, let other sovereigns fail if they can't get their house in order, and let heavily exposed banks fail.

????The validation of the failure strategy at least partially comes in comparing the credit default swaps of Italy, Portugal and Ireland from July 1, 2011 to today. Respectively, Italian swaps are up 140%, Portuguese up 38.2%, and Irish down 3.2%. Now to be fair, Ireland hasn't failed, but three of its largest banks, Allied Irish, Irish Life & Permanent, and Bank of Ireland have experienced "credit events" and, as a result, Ireland's credit worthiness has improved, on the margin.

????A more pressing question facing stock market operators is: will this current stock market rally fail? In the near term, the key driver of the stock market will likely be corporate earnings reports. To sustain positive price momentum, companies will need to both hit their estimates and also maintain future guidance. Currently, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates, 2012 consensus expectations for EPS for the S&P 500 is $106.15, which implies 16% year-over-year growth in earnings.

????Certainly, that type of earnings growth is possible, but it is highly contingent on underlying economic growth. Currently, our view is the economic growth will be in the sub-1.0% range in 2012. In the last 30 years, there have been five years of 1%, or less, GDP growth in the U.S. On average, in those years, S&P 500 earnings declined 18.3% y-o-y. Thus, unless economic activity accelerates in the U.S., it is highly unlikely that 16% y-o-y growth in earnings is met. Assuming the Hedgeye view of economic growth is correct, there is substantial downside to current 2012 consensus earnings estimates. History would suggest, as outlined above, that 2012 earnings could be too high by at least one-third.