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五大經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域:
美國風(fēng)光依舊,中國正迎頭急追

五大經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域:
美國風(fēng)光依舊,中國正迎頭急追

NIN-HAI TSENG 2011-09-27
不管美國經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)在看起來是多么地暗淡,這個國家依然在許多方面領(lǐng)先于全世界,至少目前是如此。而在遙遠(yuǎn)的東方,中國正在大部分領(lǐng)域加速趕超。

美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的光明面

????如今,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可謂一片慘淡:失業(yè)率高企;投資者對歐美大量債務(wù)及赤字可能造成的負(fù)面影響憂心忡忡;2007年,美國房地產(chǎn)價格崩盤后,美國住宅市場始終萎靡不振,鮮有改善跡象。我們已經(jīng)對政界失去了信心。人們不禁想問:“美國是否已經(jīng)喪失了競爭優(yōu)勢?”

????與此同時,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體正在迅速追趕。中國已經(jīng)成為僅次于美國的全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,預(yù)計今后10年,中國將實(shí)現(xiàn)年均9%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速;而今年上半年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長幾乎停滯,如果運(yùn)氣好的話,或許今年能超過2%。

????盡管目前美國經(jīng)濟(jì)一片愁云慘霧,而巴西、俄羅斯和其他新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體正在迎頭趕上,美國依然是全球各地的投資者和企業(yè)尋求機(jī)遇的地方。近期,美國銀行(Bank of America)旗下的私人財富管理公司U.S. Trust在其報告中向客戶闡述了“美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的優(yōu)勢所在”。

????《財富》雜志(Fortune)挑選了其中的五個優(yōu)勢,并列出了相關(guān)的分析和質(zhì)疑。

經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模最大、效率最高

????如今,與大多數(shù)美國人相比,中國人或許買走了更多的普拉達(dá)手袋,但美國依然是世界上規(guī)模最大、效率最高的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

????大約在去年的這個時候,中國超越日本成為全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。盡管許多分析師稱,到2027年,這個東亞巨人將最終超越美國,但目前大多數(shù)美國人仍然比中國人有錢得多。世界銀行(the World Bank)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2010年,中國人均GDP為4,393美元,而美國則富裕得多,達(dá)到47,184美元。

????此外,美國還是世界上效率最高的經(jīng)濟(jì)體,其GDP(14.6萬億美元)是排在其后的三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體——中國、日本和德國——的總和。誠然,據(jù)美國勞工統(tǒng)計局(the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)的資料,就人均產(chǎn)出來看,美國工人的效率全球最高,但就每小時產(chǎn)出來看,挪威在2010年比美國高出25%。

外國投資最多

????中國和德國或許出口了更多的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù),但美國依然是外國投資者眼中的香餑餑。總統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問委員會(President's Council of Economic Advisers)2011年6月發(fā)表的報告稱,2009年外國企業(yè)在美投資高達(dá)3.1萬億美元,是法國和英國的三倍,是中國的六倍多。

????但同時也必須承認(rèn),其他國家尤其是中國正在不斷追趕。雖然美國依靠其開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)和極低的投資門檻吸引了大量外國投資者,但由于發(fā)達(dá)國家的失業(yè)率和政府債務(wù)攀升,侵蝕了投資者信心,企業(yè)正涌向中國這個東亞巨人,謀求銷售增長。

????2009年,中國取代美國成為全球最大的汽車市場。從起亞(Kia Motors)到大眾(VW)的汽車廠商紛紛向中國投資了數(shù)十億美元。比如,在今年8月份,總部位于德國沃爾夫斯堡的大眾公司中國開辦了首個發(fā)動機(jī)再制造工廠。該公司稱,計劃到2015年通過其多家汽車制造廠向中國投資146億美元。

America's upside

????It's clear that all is not well in the U.S. marketplace: Unemployment is high. Investors worry about the implications of enormous debts and deficits at home and across Europe. The U.S. housing market has been a mess since the collapse of home prices in 2007 and is showing few signs of improvement. We've lost faith in our politicians. It's hard not to wonder if the U.S. has lost its competitive edge.

????Emerging economies are catching up rapidly. China, the world's second-largest economy next to the U.S., expects an average of 9% growth a year for the next decade. The U.S., whose economy barely grew during the first half of this year, will be lucky to see much more than 2% growth this year.

????But amid the doom and gloom, the U.S. is still the place most investors and businesses around the world turn to for opportunity -- even though Brazil, Russia and other emerging economies are increasingly catching up. Analysts at U.S. Trust, the private wealth management division of Bank of America, recently reminded clients in a note about "What's right with America."

????Fortune highlights five of those points, along with a dose of analysis and -- ahem -- skepticism.

Biggest and most productive economy

????The Chinese may buy more Prada handbags these days than most Americans, but the U.S. is still the world's biggest and most productive economy in the world.

????Around this time last year, China passed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy. But while many analysts say the East Asian giant could eventually surpass the U.S. by 2027, most Americans are still far richer than most Chinese. China's GDP per capita was $4,393 in 2010, while the U.S. is much wealthier at $47,184 per capita, according to the World Bank.

????The U.S. is also the most productive economy in the world, with just as much output in a year ($14.6 trillion) as the next three biggest economies -- Japan, China and Germany. Admittedly, while American workers are the world's most productive on an output per person basis, Norway in 2010 produced 25% more per hour (the best measure of productivity) than the U.S., according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Tops in foreign investment

????China and Germany may sell many more goods and services abroad, but the U.S. remains the world's hot spot for foreigners investors. In 2009, foreign companies invested $3.1 trillion in the U.S. -- triple that of France and the United Kingdom and more than six times that of China, according to a June 2011 report by the President's Council of Economic Advisers.

????Admittedly, other countries, China in particular, have been steadily catching up. While the U.S. has lured foreign investors with its open economy and very low barriers to investments, businesses are turning to the East Asian giant to bolster sales as rising unemployment and government indebtedness erode confidence in developed nations.

????In 2009, China overtook the U.S. to become the world's biggest auto market and companies from Kia Motors to VW have been investing billions into the country. For instance, Wolfsburg, Germany-based VW opened its first engine reprocessing plant in China in August and said it plans to invest $14.6 billion through its auto manufacturing ventures in the country by 2015.

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