????全球經濟正深陷泥潭難以自拔，以至于下面這個消息顯得有些難以置信：普拉達（Prada）上周二宣布，這個夏季的業績非常出色，超出華爾街分析師的預期。任何做空這家奢侈品公司的投資者現在都吃了大虧。盡管目前的經濟形勢是60年以來最差的，顯然還是有許多人愿意為2,000美元一個的手袋買單。

????這一業績令人驚喜。普拉達今年上半年新開了26家專賣店，總門店數量已達358家。業績超預期的一大原因是，該品牌沒有像前幾年那樣被迫低價甩賣產品。那么，這是不是意味著苦日子已經到頭了？

????美國還沒有。盡管普拉達上半年在美國銷售額增至率達到了16%，但它在亞洲市場的增幅更是高達35%，總營收增長了24%。新增銷售額中有一半得益于亞洲市場的貢獻，其中多數來自中國專賣店的強勁表現。普拉達在亞洲已有110家專門店，超過了整個歐洲（104家），比美國（40家）更是高出幾倍。說到底，中國人真的是什么都買。

????從更普遍的角度來看，或許更好的表述是：富人什么都買，窮人啥都買不起。專門研究服飾和鞋類公司的瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）分析師克里斯蒂安?巴斯將這種反差歸因于美國兩類不同類型消費者之間貧富差距的擴大。這兩類消費者可以分別稱為“收入報表型”消費者和“資產負債表型”消費者。

????簡而言之：54.5%的美國消費者年收入低于10萬美元，這些人就是所謂的“收入報表型”消費者——他們根據本周的收入有多少，來決定是否購買某種商品。我們更進一步，可以發現在年收入低于5萬美元的群體中，失業率維持在17%左右。統統加總起來的話，過去十年來，那些年收入低于10萬美元的消費者在美國總消費支出中所占的比例下降了6%。同一期間內，這一人群的收入占國民收入的比例也從58%下降到了54.5%。

????巴斯認為，據此可得出簡明扼要的結論：不要買入銷售簡單的非必需品的公司的股票，除非其股價已經非常低廉，遠低于公允價值。這意味著極速騎板（Quiksilver）和哥倫比亞運動服飾（Columbia Sportswear）等公司可能面臨風險。就極速騎板來說，該公司是一家成熟品牌，目前正在進行轉型。此外，過于專注于美國國內市場的公司恐怕也不該看好，因為普拉達的業績表明，服飾企業當前的增長潛力主要來自中國。此類公司包括以美國市場為核心的Limited Brands和Under Armour。

????接下來的是好消息：巴斯隨后又闡述了“資產負債表型”消費者——也就是年收入高于10萬美元的那45.5%人群。這些人的消費習慣通常并不會根據周薪變化而調整。他們的失業率維持在3.6%左右，用經濟學家的話來說，這可算“完全就業”。（別問我為什么，顯然他們認為4%的失業率已經是好得不能再好。）“資產負債表型”消費者正享受著一派繁榮——過去十年來他們的平均收入增長了10%，在國民收入中所占的比例自然也從42%提升到了45.5%。

????巴斯描述此種變化的方式非常謹慎，他表示：“我認為，人們應當認識到經濟中出現了結構性變化，這相當重要——資產負債表型消費者從總收入這塊餡餅中分到的比例越來越大。”換句話說，富人越來越富。

????巴斯的結論可不是玩笑話。哪些公司在做富人的生意，從而大賺特賺呢？普拉達當然少不了； Coach也是個典型，后者最近一個季度的業績非常搶眼，中國市場銷售額猛增了71%。

????愛馬仕（Hermes）呢？這家公司以騎手風格圍巾和領帶著稱，今年上半年營收猛增22%。

????最后再推薦一個公司：運動服飾制造商Lululemon。盡管我本人偏愛耐克（Nike）的運動服，我對Lululemon這家公司或者瑜伽運動本身都沒什么意見。可是，誰會買100美元一條的瑜伽褲？富人，沒錯，就是那些有錢人。加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）分析師霍華德?圖賓最近表示，這個季度他看過的財報中，數Lululemon的業績最強勁。最近一個季度里，該公司的營收、利潤率和每股收益全部實現增長，這倒有點像普拉達。盡管如此，這只股票的表現表明人們普遍看好這家公司，因此現在算不上入手的絕佳機會。

????借著瑜伽流行的東風，Lulu甚至有可能搶走普拉達的風頭。美國銀行（Bank of America）分析師羅萊因?哈奇辛認為該公司2012年將會新開35家專賣店。最近一個季度，該公司營收增長了40%。也許每個人心里都藏著個瑜伽大師，或者藏著對真皮手包的渴求，抑或兩者兼有。

????Here's a piece of counter-narrative news as economies around the globe continue to struggle: Prada announced yesterday that it had a great quarter this summer, exceeding Wall Street's expectations. Anyone who bet against the luxury brand is now chastised. Even in the worst economy in a generation, plenty of people are apparently going to buy those $2,000 handbags.

????The results were surprising. Prada opened 26 stores in the first half of the year, bringing its total to 358. One of the reasons it beat the mark was that it wasn't forced into discounts as it had been in recent years. So does this mean the pain is actually over?

????Not on these shores. Even though Prada saw U.S. sales growth of 16% in the half, it also enjoyed a 35% sales rise in Asia. Revenues grew 24% overall. A full 50% of total sales growth came courtesy of Asia, mostly from spending in stores in China itself. One hundred and ten of the company's stores are in Asia—more than in all of Europe (104) and many, many than in the entire United States (40). In the end, the Chinese really will buy everything.

????Or, in more general terms, the rich will buy everything while the poor will buy nothing. Christian Buss, who covers apparel and footwear for Credit Suisse, attributes the divergence in the U.S. to the growing chasm between two types of consumers: 'Income Statement' consumers and 'Balance Sheet' consumers.

????Here's the basic idea: 54.5% of U.S. consumers make less than $100,000 a year. These are 'Income Statement' consumers, the kind of people who decide whether they want to buy something based on this week's paycheck. Working our way down, the unemployment rate for those making less than $50,000 per year hovers around 17%. All-in, the role of those earning under $100,000 in our overall spending has declined by 6% over the past ten years. The income for the entire crowd has declined from 58% of the total to 54.5% over that time.

????The simple conclusion, according to Buss: don't buy stock in those companies that sell simple discretionary items, except if you're going to go deep discount. That means that Quiksilver (ZQK) and Columbia Sportswear (COLM) could be at risk. Quiksilver, for its part, is a mature brand and also in the midst of a turnaround. And don't focus on companies that have too much of a domestic focus since, as Prada shows, much of the growth potential right now is coming from China. That would include U.S.-centric companies like Limited Brands (LTD) and Under Armour (UA).

????Here's the good news. Buss goes on to identify 'Balance Sheet' consumers -- the 45.5% of the people who make more than $100,000 a year. These are people whose spending doesn't really change based on their weekly paycheck. Their employment rate hovers around 3.6%, what economists call "full employment." (Don't ask me. Apparently 4% unemployed is like 11 on the Spinal Tap amp.) The 'Balance Sheet' consumers are thriving -- they have seen an increase in average income of 10% over the past 10 years. Their share of total income has naturally risen, from 42% to 45.5%.

????Buss states the change in a very politic way. "I think it's important for people to know that this is a structural change in the economy," he says, "that the balance sheet consumer continues to gain share of the total income pie." In other words, the richer are getting richer.

????The man isn't kidding. So who is selling to the rich and winning? Prada, for one. Coach, for two. Coach (COH) nailed it in its last quarter. It had 71% sales growth in China.

????And what of Hermes? The maker of equestrian-inspired scarves and ties enjoyed 22% revenue growth in the first half of the year.

????Here's a final one for you: athletic apparel maker Lululemon (LULU). While I prefer Nike (NKE) running clothing, I have nothing against the chain. Or even yoga itself. But who is buying $100 pairs of yoga pants? The rich, that's who. RBC analyst Howard Tubin said recently that Lululemon's results were among the strongest he'd seen this reporting season. Lululemon had all of revenue growth, margin growth, and earnings-per-share growth in its latest quarter. Kind of like Prada. That said, the stock reflects people's excitement about the story, so it's no screaming buy.

????Lulu may even run down the Yogi's lane against the Italians. Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchsion thinks Lululemon will open 35 stores in 2012. The firm's sales increased 40% in their last quarter. Perhaps we will all find our inner yoga master. Or our need for leather handbags. Or both.